Workshop on Predictability, dynamics and applications research using the TIGGE and S2S ensembles

ECMWF | Reading | 2-5 April 2019

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Workshop description

TIGGE (The International Grand Global Ensemble) is a dataset, established by the World Weather Research Programme in 2006, comprised of operational global ensemble forecast data from ten weather forecasting centres. TIGGE is designed to span the medium-range (out to day 15), but a similar multi-model ensemble, the S2S dataset, a joint World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) effort, has been created with contributions from 11 centres to extend across the sub-seasonal to seasonal range (up to day 60).

Both TIGGE and S2S data are archived at ECMWF and CMA providing a unique resource for predictability and dynamical processes research.  TIGGE has already proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. The S2S database extends the time horizon and also the processes that are important to prediction out to a season, opening new avenues of research.

This workshop provided an opportunity to review the main scientific advances in predictability, dynamical process studies and applications of ensemble forecasts across the medium and S2S forecast ranges. Examples of sectors rapidly developing in ensemble applications include energy, retail and agriculture, as well as disaster risk mitigation worldwide. The emphasis was on the utilisation of the TIGGE and S2S databases in research and contributions on seamless prediction, multi-model prediction and ensemble post-processing were particularly welcome. One session was dedicated to the technical development of ensembles, the TIGGE and S2S data bases and proposals for future development.

Workshop themes

1. Database technical Development

In this theme, we welcomed contributions on various technical aspects related to the TIGGE and S2S data handling. It is crucial for the future to ensure the sustainable long-term minimum effort data processing from initial data production to the final archiving. The contributions related to users' experience with available data interfaces to access the data were also welcome.

2. Predictability and Dynamics

In this theme, we welcomed contributions addressing the representation and understanding of dynamical processes and sources of predictability on medium-range and intra-seasonal time scale. We also welcomed contributions addressing the design of TIGGE and S2S forecasting systems. This includes the design of data assimilation systems and the forecasting system (initialization, ensemble generation, ensemble size, resolution, complexity of the earth system needed for TIGGE and S2S forecasts ...), as well as studies of systematic errors and process-based diagnostics and metrics. 

3. Prediction and Verification

In this theme, we welcomed contributions addressing the development of methodologies for calibration, evaluation of the skill of TIGGE and S2S forecasting systems and development of probabilistic forecast products.  Contributions on seamless prediction from the short/medium range to the sub-seasonal time scale, and verification re particularly welcome.

4. Multi-model approaches to prediction

In this theme, we welcome contributions addressing the development of methodologies for multi-model combination, and comparison of multi-model versus single-model forecasting systems.

5. Application studies

In this theme, we welcome contributions in the broad area of socio-economic applications of TIGGE and S2S forecasts to meet decision-making needs (e.g. early warning-early action, risk management), such as in agriculture and food security, water resource management, retail, public health, energy, and disaster risk reduction... Contributions related to the seamless use of information from short/medium range to extended range forecasts are particularly welcome.

TIGGE/S2S challenge

As part of the meeting, we aim to promote the development of 'user-oriented variables' as a means of improving communication between the Forecasting and User communities. We define user-oriented variables as derived variables of forecast output which represent the metrological aspects that a given user might be sensitive to. A simple example might be V^3 for wind power. A key question is "How reliable and skilful are the ensemble forecasts within the TIGGE/S2S databases when predicting user-oriented variables? "

  S2S/TIGGE challenge

Working Group reports

WG1

User-oriented variables (UOVs) to facilitate communication and development

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WG2

S2S and TIGGE databases: technical aspects

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WG3

Processes and forecasts

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WG4

Dynamical processes and ensemble diagnostics

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WG5

Verification / Calibration

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WG6

The potential value of multi-model ensembles

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Presentations and recordings

Tuesday, 2 April

Introduction and welcome

Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)

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Flow-dependent predictability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in medium-range forecasts

Mio Matsueda (Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba)

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The role of stratosphere-troposphere coupling in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction using the S2S database

Andrew Charlton-Perez (University of Reading)

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Stratospheric influences on subseasonal predictability of European energy-industry-relevant parameters

Dominik Büeler (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

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Understanding predictability of the MJO in S2S ensemble

Shuyi Chen (University of Washington)

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MJO Impact on Temperature Extremes over Australia during Austral Spring

Harry Hendon (Bureau of Meteorology)

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Extratropical predictability from the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the MJO in S2S models

Chaim Garfinkel (Hebrew University)

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Intra-seasonal and Seasonal Variability of the Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropics

Cristiana Stan (GMU)

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Subseasonal Forecast Skill over the Northern Polar Region in Three Operational S2S Systems

Hai Lin (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

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Wednesday, 3 April

The technical development of the TIGGE and S2S databases

Manuel Fuentes (ECMWF)

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Progress on TIGGE Archive Center in CMA

FeiFei Yang (China Meteorological Administration)

The progress of CMA S2S data center

Xing Hu (China Meteorological Administration)

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The S2S Data Base in IRI Data Library: Maprooms and online analysis tools

Andrew Robertson (International Research Institute for Climate and Society)

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Ensemble forecasting at ECMWF

Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

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ICON-EPS: a contribution to TIGGE?

Michael Denhard (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

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An Assessment of Predictability and Prediction of NCEP GEFS for Subseasonal Forecast

Yuejian Zhu (EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA)

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Using the S2S Database to Evaluate the Performance of the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Ensemble

Matthew Janiga (Naval Research Laboratory)

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Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves

Tilmann Gneiting (Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies)

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A verification framework for South American sub-seasonal precipitation predictions

Caio Coelho (CPTEC/INPE)

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Spread of global 2-meter temperature analyses: disentangling forecast systematic errors from mis-estimation of ensemble spread

Tom Hamill (NOAA ESRL PSD)

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Use of TIGGE/Global Ensembles in Tropical Cyclone Research and Operational Forecasts

Helen Titley (Met Office)

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Achieving seamless verification across sub-seasonal time scales from weather to climate

Paul Dirmeyer (George Mason University)

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Uncertainties in Extended-Range Precipitation Forecasts: Model Biases or Predictability Limits

Mingyue Chen (Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA)

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Ensemble Prediction and Predictability of Extreme Weather via Circulation Regimes

Kathleen Pegion (George Mason University)

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Forecast products for predicting Atlantic-European weather regimes on subseasonal time scales

Christian M. Grams (IMK-TRO, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))

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Prospects for subseasonal sea ice prediction at both poles

Lorenzo Zampieri (Alfred Wegener Institute)

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Assessment of conditional forecast skill for Brazilian precipitation

Amulya Chevuturi (NCAS)

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Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and its Climate Impacts with S2S models

Alexey Karpechko (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

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A relationship between zonal migration of monsoon moisture flux convergence and variability in the strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation events

Samson Hagos (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

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Thursday, 4 April

Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecast Performance and Prediction of Ensemble Forecast Error

James Goerss (SAIC, NRL Monterey)

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Multi-model Prediction on Subseasonal Timescales at the US NOAA Climate Prediction Center: Approaches to Calibration and the Identification of Forecasts of Opportunity

Daniel Collins (NOAA Climate Prediction Center)

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Isotonic Distributional Regression (IDR): A powerful nonparametric calibration technique

Johanna Ziegel (University of Bern)

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A Bayesian framework for postprocessing multi-ensemble weather forecasts

Clair Barnes (Department of Statistical Science, University College London)

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Benefits of a multimodel approach for forecasting precipitation over New Caledonia (SW Pacific) at S2S timescales

Damien Specq (Météo-France)

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Subseasonal Prediction of European Extreme Temperature Events in S2S hindcasts

Ole Wulff (ETH Zurich)

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Experimental S2S Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western United States

Michael DeFlorio (Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes)

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Digiscape: A one-platform solution for seasonal climate integration into Agriculture

Jaclyn Brown (CSIRO Agriculture and Food)

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A flood alert system for Switzerland based on integrated water vapor fluxes

Jonas Bhend (MeteoSwiss)

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Friday, 5 April

Transmuting S2S forecasts into applications

Ángel G. Muñoz (IRI - Columbia University)

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The S2S4E project, sub-seasonal to seasonal climate predictions for energy

Andrea Manrique-Suñén (Barcelona Supercomputing Center)

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Drought Monitoring and Prediction Using Sub-Seasonal Predictions

Yuhei Takaya (MRI/JMA)

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Developing capacity of Southeast Asian countries to apply subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts in impact forecasting tools

Thea Turkington (Meteorological Service Singapore)

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Subseasonal forecasting: Managing telecommunications fault risk

David Brayshaw (University of Reading)

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Plenary session

 

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Posters

Global precipitation hindcast quality assessment of the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project models
Felipe Andrade (University of Reading)

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The ECMWF land surface scheme and its initialisation in S2S reforecast applications
Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF)

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On the predictive skill of climate indices in seasonal forecasts
Jonas Bhend (MeteoSwiss)

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GMAO Seasonal Forecast Ensemble Exploration
Anna Borovikov (NASA/GMAO/SSAI)

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S2S forecasting for the European energy system
David Brayshaw (University of Reading)

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Understanding skill in probabilistic predictions of system-wide wind power generation in Great Britain
David Brayshaw (University of Reading)

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AgScore - a skill test of climate models for agriculture
Jaclyn Brown (CSIRO Agriculture and Food)

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Influences of teleconnection patterns on South America in subseasonal to seasonal models hindcasts
Iracema Cavalcanti (National Institute for Space Research)

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An Evaluation of Forecast Performance for North Atlantic Oscillation Onsets
Gokun Dai (Fudan University)

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Predictions of high impact weather events
Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)

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Performance of the Brazilian Atmospheric Model for Sub-Seasonal Predictions
Bruno Guimaraes (Centre for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies / University of Reading)

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Calibrating ensemble forecasts of quantitative precipitation
Alexander Henzi (University of Bern)

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Optimal ensemble size for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction system
Sangwook Kim (Seoul National University)

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Extratropical prediction skills of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction models
Sangwook Kim (Seoul National University)

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Early warning products for severe weather events derived from operational medium-range ensemble forecasts
Mio Matsueda (University of Tsukuba)

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The TIGGE and S2S Museums - websites of ensemble forecast products
Mio Matsueda (University of Tsukuba)

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Performance of Global Ensemble Prediction System for extremely warm days over Asia in spring 2018
Kenta Ochi (Japan Meteorological Agency)  

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Understanding the influence of global climate drivers on monsoon onset variability in Nigeria using S2S models
Eniola Olaniyan (Nigerian Meteorological Agency)

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The TIGGE tropical cyclone track dataset archive at NCAR
Douglas Schuster (NCAR)

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Short to medium range forecasting skills of the GFS model
Priyanshi Singhai (Indian Institute of Science)

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Optimising the use of ensemble information in forecasts of wind power generation
Jeremy Stanger (University of Oxford)

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An assessment of the skill, sources of predictability and the climatological biases within sub-seasonal precipitation hindcasts over Africa
Elisabeth Thompson (University of Reading)

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Preliminary Evaluations of the Extended-Range Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecasts in the Western North Pacific and Taiwan Area by using the ECMWF S2S Forecasts
Hsiao-Chung Tsai (Central Weather Bureau Taiwan)

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The 45 days CWBGFS ensemble prediction system based on singular vectors
John Chien-Han Tseng (Central Weather Bureau Taiwan)

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Sub-seasonal predictability of extreme European weather events
Chiem van Straaten (KNMI)

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S2S prediction at ECMWF
Federic Vitart (ECMWF)

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Organising committee

Craig Bishop (craig.bishop@nrlmry.navy.mil)
Manuel Fuentes (manuel.fuentes@ecmwf.int)
John Methven (j.methven@reading.ac.uk)
David Richardson (david.richardson@ecmwf.int)
Andrew Robertson (awr@iri.columbia.edu)
Mark Rodwell (mark.rodwell@ecmwf.int)
Frederic Vitart (frederic.vitart@ecmwf.int)