Workshop on representing model uncertainty and error in numerical weather and climate prediction

Between 20 and 24 June 2011, a workshop was held at ECMWF on 'Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Weather and Climate Prediction'. The workshop was co-sponsored by WMO/WGNE, WMO/THORPEX, WCRP.

The workshop attracted almost 100 participants, from Europe and other parts of the world, such as Japan, North and South America and Australia.

Description

There are a number of techniques to represent model uncertainty in ensemble forecasts. These range from the multi-model techniques which feature prominently in IPCC assessment reports, to the stochastic parametrizations pioneered at ECMWF and widely used at weather forecast centres around the world. A key outcome of the meeting was that the stochastic parametrization paradigm needs further development at the process level, and hence needs to be incorporated as part of general parametrization development. Key tools will include sophisticated analyses of observational datasets, output from cloud resolving models, and analyses from objective data assimilation. Data assimilation techniques themselves will benefit from better representations of model uncertainty.

Programme

PDF iconAnnex I: Participants

PDF iconAnnex II: Programme

Presentations

Monday 20 June  

Welcome

Erland Källén (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Overview

Tim Palmer (ECMWF)

PDF icon
Uncertainty in the representation of key processes
 

Representing convection in models: How stochastic does it need to be?

Christian Jakob (Monash)

PDF icon

Energy and enstrophy cascades in numerical models

John Thuburn (University of Exeter)

PDF icon

Radiation fast physics with slow consequences in an uncertain atmosphere

Robert Pincus (University of Colorado)

PDF icon

Uncertainty and complexity in cloud microphysics

Axel Seifert (DWD)

PDF icon

Some numerical issues in stochastic integration

Cecile Penland (NOAA)

PDF icon
Tuesday 21 June  

Dealing with ocean model uncertainty in climate prediction

Laure Zanna (Oxford)

PDF icon

Uncertainty in representation of land surface processes: soil hydrology and river runoff

Hannah Cloke (King’s College) 

PDF icon
Model uncertainty from a mathematical perspective
 

Improving complex models, stochastic parameterization, and information theory

Andy Majda (Courant)

PDF icon

Data-based stochastic subgrid-scale modelling

Frank Kwasniok (University of Exeter)

PDF icon
Multi model ensembles
 

Multimodels on seasonal to multi-decadal time-scales: Potential and limitations

Andreas Weigel (MeteoSwiss)

PDF icon
Multi-parametrisation
 

The use of multiple parameterizations in ensembles

Peter Houtekamer (Canada)

PDF icon

Representing model uncertainty using multi-parametrisation methods

Laurent Descamps (Météo France)

PDF icon
Perturbed parameters
 

Assessing perturbed parameter ensembles as a tool for sampling model uncertainties and making climate projections

James Murphy (Met Office)

PDF icon

Inference from perturbed parameter ensemble experiments

Jonty Rougier (Bristol)

PDF icon
Stochastic parametrisation
 

Stochastic tendency perturbations for NWP ensembles

Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Tracking down the origin of NWP model uncertainty : coarse-graining studies and the efficacy of various stochastic parametrizations

Glenn Shutts (Met Office)

PDF icon
Wednesday 22 June  

Stochastic parameterization: uncertainties from convection

Bob Plant (University of Reading) 

PDF icon

Comparison of model-uncertainty schemes across a range of scales

Judith Berner (NCAR)

PDF icon

Data assimilation using models with stochastic parameterizations

Tim Del Sole (COLA)

PDF icon

Representing deep convective organization in a high resolution NWP LAM model using cellular automata

Lisa Bengtsson-Sedlar (SMHI)

PDF icon
Superparametrisation
 

Variability Across Time Scales in a Super-Parameterized GCM

Dave Randall (CSU)

PDF icon
Post-processing issues
 

Addressing model uncertainty through statistical post-processing

Tom Hamill (NOAA)

PDF icon
Representation of model uncertainty in data assimilation
 

Estimating model error in 4D-Var

Yannick Tremolet (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Model uncertainty in ensemble data assimilation

Massimo Bonavita (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Evaluating methods for representing model error using ensemble data assimilation

Jeff Whitaker (NOAA)

PDF icon
Verification of methods for representing uncertainty
 

Assessing representations of model uncertainty in seasonal forecast ensembles

Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Local diagnostics to measure the efficiency of the ensemble in representing the error space

Istvan Szunyogh (Texas A&M)

PDF icon

Working groups

PDF iconWorking group reports

Posters

Stochastic parametrisation and model uncertainty in the Lorenz '96 System

Hannah Arnold

PDF icon

Equilibrium distribution of subgrid convection: A grand canonic ensemble approach

Jian-Wen Bao

PDF icon

Treatment of the error due to unresolved scales in sequential data assimilation

Alberto Carrassi

PDF icon

Parameterization of atmospheric convection with conditional Markov chains

Jesse Dorrestijn

PDF icon

Estimation and value of ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts

Tony Eckel

PDF icon

Perturbations of surface parameters or how to stumble upon chaos... again

Normand Gagnon

PDF icon

Representing convection in climate models with unified schemes

Cathy Hohenegger

PDF icon

Laborious linkage between moist physics parameterization and observations : spin-down problem in an NWP system

Takuya Komori

PDF icon

Atmospheric blocking in numerical weather and climate prediction models

Mio Matsueda

PDF icon

Inclusion of model uncertainty in the U.S. Navy's Global Ensemble System

Carolyn Reynolds

PDF icon

Parameter estimation of a convective scheme using ensemble transform Kalman filter

Juan Jose Ruiz

PDF icon

Development and evaluation of stochastic physics schemes in the Unified Model - Preliminary results

Claudio Sanchez

PDF icon

Predicting outliers in ensemble forecasts

Stefan Siegert

PDF icon

Development of parameterizations for simulating moist convective boundary layers: an EDMF stochastic approach

Joao Teixeira

PDF icon

New schemes to perturb near-surface variables in MOGREPS

Warren Tennant

PDF icon

A seamless approach to assessing uncertainties of climate models in predictions of severe rxtratropical windstorms

Tomasz Trzeciak

PDF icon

Correction of model errors using Model Output Statistics

Stéphane Vannitsem

PDF icon

Representation of model uncertainty in ocean data assimilation for seasonal prediction in the POAMA system

Yonghong Yin

PDF icon

Impact of observation-optimized model parameters on decadal predictions

Shaoqing Zhang

PDF icon

Proceedings

Incorporating flow-dependent model errors in local ensemble transform kalman filter: role of stochastic back-scatter

Jaison Ambadan (MPI)

PDF icon

A stochastic parameterization of deep convection organisation using cellular automata

Lisa Bengtsson-Sedlar (SMHI)

PDF icon

Uncertainty prediction across a range of scales: from short-range weather forecasting to climate uncertainty

Judith Berner (NCAR)

PDF icon

Impact and diagnosis of model error in the ECMWF ensemble of data assimilations

Massimo Bonavita (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simuations with the ECMWF land surface scheme

Hannah Cloke (King’s College) 

PDF icon

State and parameter estimation in stochastic dynamical models

Tim Del Sole (COLA)

PDF icon

Representing model uncertainty using the multiparametrization method

Laurent Descamps (Météo France)

PDF icon

Addressing model uncertainty through statistical post-processing using forecasts

Tom Hamill (NOAA)

PDF icon

The use of multiple parametrizations in ensembles

Peter Houtekamer (Canada)

PDF icon

Representation convection in models: How stochastic does it need to be?

Christian Jakob (Monash)

PDF icon

Cluster-weighted stochastic subgrid-scale modelling

Frank Kwasniok (University of Exeter)

PDF icon

Improving complex models through stochastic parametrization and information theory

Andy Majda (Courant)

PDF icon

Perturbed parameter ensembles as a tool for sampling model uncertainties and making climate projections

James Murphy (Met Office)

PDF icon

Towards the probabilistic earth-system simulator: a vision for the future of climate

Tim Palmer (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Some issues in stochastic weather/climate modelling; or how do i use stochastic differential equations to model something real?

Cecile Penland (NOAA)

PDF icon

Radiation: fast physics with slow consequences in an uncertain atmosphere

Robert Pincus (University of Colorado)

PDF icon

Stochastic parameterization: uncertainties from convection

Bob Plant (University of Reading) 

PDF icon

The limits of convection parametrization

Dave Randall (CSU)

PDF icon

Low-noise projections of complex simulator output: A useful tool when checking for code errors

Jonathan Rougier (University of Bristol)

PDF icon

Uncertainty and complexity in cloud microphysics

Axel Seifert (DWD)

PDF icon

Tracking down the origin of NWP model uncertainty: coarse-graining studies

Glenn Shutts (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Local diagnostics to measure the efficiency of the ensemble in representing the error space

Istvan Szunyogh (Texas A&M University)

PDF icon

Energy and enstrophy cascades in numerical models

John Thuburn (University of Exeter)

PDF icon

Accounting for model error in 4D-Var

Yannick Tremolet (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Multi models on seasonal to multi-decadel output statistics

Andreas Weigel (MeteoSwiss)

PDF icon

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Evaluating methods for representing model error using ensemble data assimilation

Jeff Whitaker (NOAA)

PDF icon

Ocean model uncertainty in climate prediction

Laure Zanna (Oxford)

PDF icon

Local information


You can also see an archive of past workshops

View full calendar of events