Workshop on representing model uncertainty and error in numerical weather and climate prediction

Between 20 and 24 June 2011, a workshop was held at ECMWF on 'Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Weather and Climate Prediction'. The workshop was co-sponsored by WMO/WGNE, WMO/THORPEX, WCRP.

The workshop attracted almost 100 participants, from Europe and other parts of the world, such as Japan, North and South America and Australia.

Description

There are a number of techniques to represent model uncertainty in ensemble forecasts. These range from the multi-model techniques which feature prominently in IPCC assessment reports, to the stochastic parametrizations pioneered at ECMWF and widely used at weather forecast centres around the world. A key outcome of the meeting was that the stochastic parametrization paradigm needs further development at the process level, and hence needs to be incorporated as part of general parametrization development. Key tools will include sophisticated analyses of observational datasets, output from cloud resolving models, and analyses from objective data assimilation. Data assimilation techniques themselves will benefit from better representations of model uncertainty.

Programme

PDF iconAnnex I: Participants

PDF iconAnnex II: Programme

Presentations

Monday 20 June  

Welcome

Erland Källén (ECMWF)

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Overview

Tim Palmer (ECMWF)

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Uncertainty in the representation of key processes
 

Representing convection in models: How stochastic does it need to be?

Christian Jakob (Monash)

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Energy and enstrophy cascades in numerical models

John Thuburn (University of Exeter)

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Radiation fast physics with slow consequences in an uncertain atmosphere

Robert Pincus (University of Colorado)

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Uncertainty and complexity in cloud microphysics

Axel Seifert (DWD)

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Some numerical issues in stochastic integration

Cecile Penland (NOAA)

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Tuesday 21 June  

Dealing with ocean model uncertainty in climate prediction

Laure Zanna (Oxford)

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Uncertainty in representation of land surface processes: soil hydrology and river runoff

Hannah Cloke (King’s College) 

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Model uncertainty from a mathematical perspective
 

Improving complex models, stochastic parameterization, and information theory

Andy Majda (Courant)

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Data-based stochastic subgrid-scale modelling

Frank Kwasniok (University of Exeter)

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Multi model ensembles
 

Multimodels on seasonal to multi-decadal time-scales: Potential and limitations

Andreas Weigel (MeteoSwiss)

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Multi-parametrisation
 

The use of multiple parameterizations in ensembles

Peter Houtekamer (Canada)

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Representing model uncertainty using multi-parametrisation methods

Laurent Descamps (Météo France)

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Perturbed parameters
 

Assessing perturbed parameter ensembles as a tool for sampling model uncertainties and making climate projections

James Murphy (Met Office)

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Inference from perturbed parameter ensemble experiments

Jonty Rougier (Bristol)

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Stochastic parametrisation
 

Stochastic tendency perturbations for NWP ensembles

Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)

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Tracking down the origin of NWP model uncertainty : coarse-graining studies and the efficacy of various stochastic parametrizations

Glenn Shutts (Met Office)

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Wednesday 22 June  

Stochastic parameterization: uncertainties from convection

Bob Plant (University of Reading) 

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Comparison of model-uncertainty schemes across a range of scales

Judith Berner (NCAR)

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Data assimilation using models with stochastic parameterizations

Tim Del Sole (COLA)

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Representing deep convective organization in a high resolution NWP LAM model using cellular automata

Lisa Bengtsson-Sedlar (SMHI)

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Superparametrisation
 

Variability Across Time Scales in a Super-Parameterized GCM

Dave Randall (CSU)

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Post-processing issues
 

Addressing model uncertainty through statistical post-processing

Tom Hamill (NOAA)

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Representation of model uncertainty in data assimilation
 

Estimating model error in 4D-Var

Yannick Tremolet (ECMWF)

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Model uncertainty in ensemble data assimilation

Massimo Bonavita (ECMWF)

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Evaluating methods for representing model error using ensemble data assimilation

Jeff Whitaker (NOAA)

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Verification of methods for representing uncertainty
 

Assessing representations of model uncertainty in seasonal forecast ensembles

Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)

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Local diagnostics to measure the efficiency of the ensemble in representing the error space

Istvan Szunyogh (Texas A&M)

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Working groups

PDF iconWorking group reports

Posters

Stochastic parametrisation and model uncertainty in the Lorenz '96 System

Hannah Arnold

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Equilibrium distribution of subgrid convection: A grand canonic ensemble approach

Jian-Wen Bao

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Treatment of the error due to unresolved scales in sequential data assimilation

Alberto Carrassi

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Parameterization of atmospheric convection with conditional Markov chains

Jesse Dorrestijn

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Estimation and value of ambiguity in Ensemble Forecasts

Tony Eckel

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Perturbations of surface parameters or how to stumble upon chaos... again

Normand Gagnon

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Representing convection in climate models with unified schemes

Cathy Hohenegger

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Laborious linkage between moist physics parameterization and observations : spin-down problem in an NWP system

Takuya Komori

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Atmospheric blocking in numerical weather and climate prediction models

Mio Matsueda

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Inclusion of model uncertainty in the U.S. Navy's Global Ensemble System

Carolyn Reynolds

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Parameter estimation of a convective scheme using ensemble transform Kalman filter

Juan Jose Ruiz

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Development and evaluation of stochastic physics schemes in the Unified Model - Preliminary results

Claudio Sanchez

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Predicting outliers in ensemble forecasts

Stefan Siegert

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Development of parameterizations for simulating moist convective boundary layers: an EDMF stochastic approach

Joao Teixeira

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New schemes to perturb near-surface variables in MOGREPS

Warren Tennant

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A seamless approach to assessing uncertainties of climate models in predictions of severe extratropical windstorms

Tomasz Trzeciak

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Correction of model errors using Model Output Statistics

Stéphane Vannitsem

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Representation of model uncertainty in ocean data assimilation for seasonal prediction in the POAMA system

Yonghong Yin

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Impact of observation-optimized model parameters on decadal predictions

Shaoqing Zhang

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Proceedings

Incorporating flow-dependent model errors in local ensemble transform Kalman filter: role of stochastic back-scatter

Jaison Ambadan (MPI)

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A stochastic parameterization of deep convection organisation using cellular automata

Lisa Bengtsson-Sedlar (SMHI)

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Uncertainty prediction across a range of scales: from short-range weather forecasting to climate uncertainty

Judith Berner (NCAR)

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Impact and diagnosis of model error in the ECMWF ensemble of data assimilations

Massimo Bonavita (ECMWF)

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Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simulations with the ECMWF land surface scheme

Hannah Cloke (King’s College) 

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State and parameter estimation in stochastic dynamical models

Tim Del Sole (COLA)

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Representing model uncertainty using the multiparametrization method

Laurent Descamps (Météo France)

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Addressing model uncertainty through statistical post-processing using forecasts

Tom Hamill (NOAA)

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The use of multiple parametrizations in ensembles

Peter Houtekamer (Canada)

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Representation convection in models: How stochastic does it need to be?

Christian Jakob (Monash)

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Cluster-weighted stochastic subgrid-scale modelling

Frank Kwasniok (University of Exeter)

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Improving complex models through stochastic parametrization and information theory

Andy Majda (Courant)

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Perturbed parameter ensembles as a tool for sampling model uncertainties and making climate projections

James Murphy (Met Office)

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Towards the probabilistic earth-system simulator: a vision for the future of climate

Tim Palmer (ECMWF)

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Some issues in stochastic weather/climate modelling; or how do i use stochastic differential equations to model something real?

Cecile Penland (NOAA)

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Radiation: fast physics with slow consequences in an uncertain atmosphere

Robert Pincus (University of Colorado)

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Stochastic parameterization: uncertainties from convection

Bob Plant (University of Reading) 

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The limits of convection parametrization

Dave Randall (CSU)

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Low-noise projections of complex simulator output: A useful tool when checking for code errors

Jonathan Rougier (University of Bristol)

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Uncertainty and complexity in cloud microphysics

Axel Seifert (DWD)

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Tracking down the origin of NWP model uncertainty: coarse-graining studies

Glenn Shutts (ECMWF)

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Local diagnostics to measure the efficiency of the ensemble in representing the error space

Istvan Szunyogh (Texas A&M University)

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Energy and enstrophy cascades in numerical models

John Thuburn (University of Exeter)

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Accounting for model error in 4D-Var

Yannick Tremolet (ECMWF)

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Multi models on seasonal to multi-decadal output statistics

Andreas Weigel (MeteoSwiss)

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Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles

Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)

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Evaluating methods for representing model error using ensemble data assimilation

Jeff Whitaker (NOAA)

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Ocean model uncertainty in climate prediction

Laure Zanna (Oxford)

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