Science blog

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Extreme precipitation and large-scale flow patterns in the Mediterranean

Following a recent publication, Nikolaos Mastrantonas discusses the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events across the Mediterranean and their connection to large-scale atmospheric flow patterns.
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New insights into polar observing systems using numerical models

Irina Sandu and François Massonnet (Université Catholique de Louvain) discuss polar observations, their impact on forecasting, and how the development of observing systems goes hand in hand with the development of numerical prediction systems.
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2020 – a crazy year (for satellite navigation data and NWP)!

Sean Healy has had a crazy year – and for a change we are not talking about COVID. Despite the restrictions of working from home, Sean and colleagues at the Centre have achieved remarkable progress in the use of data from global satellite navigation systems to improve our forecasts.
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Clouds blowing (in) the wind

ECMWF Fellow Louise Nuijens is daydreaming about a field campaign in Barbados earlier this year. Working with us, she is analysing the observations that were collected there, to understand how clouds affect and are affected by the wind.
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ECMWF Summer of Weather Code – a driver of innovation

Julia Wagemann and Esperanza Cuartero discuss the exciting developments from this summer's ESoWC, which gives developers the opportunity to work with ECMWF mentors to solve a range of challenges facing the Centre.
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DACCIWA – a 5-year programme on weather, climate and air pollution in West Africa

Colleagues from the Karlsruhe Institute for Technology join with ECMWF staff to discuss improvements in our understanding of how aerosols, clouds and radiation affect the monsoon rains of southern West Africa.
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Using the power of data assimilation to model the COVID-19 pandemic

Given that data assimilation is such a central aspect of ECMWF’s work, Geir Evensen was invited to present a seminar and a blog covering his work on its use in modelling aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Towards sub-seasonal predictability of extreme weather over Europe

Emmanuel Rouges and Nikolaos Mastrantonas are investigating predictability on the challenging sub-seasonal (or extended-range) timescale, focusing on extreme conditions over Europe, as part of the EU CAFE project.
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A baseline for global weather and climate simulations at 1 km resolution

Nils Wedi describes the first ever 1 km seasonal timescale simulation of the atmosphere, run on the fastest computer in the world (as of November 2019). Modelling weather in such unprecedented detail is offering exciting opportunities to advance weather and climate prediction, and the testing of new satellite observations.
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Towards improved forecasts in Northern Europe with a new snow model

Jonny Day and Gabriele Arduini discuss how they are using Finnish Meteorological Institute observations at a snow-covered boreal site in Lapland to improve the ECMWF snow model and forecasts in Northern Europe.
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The first ECMWF science and art exhibition

ECMWF’s first science and art exhibition proved a great success. It demonstrated the importance of art as a way of engaging an audience, stimulating dialogue and encouraging the creativity which is at the heart of the Centre's scientific excellence.
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Flying high with NOAA over the Pacific

David Lavers relates his experience on a research aircraft flight to observe atmospheric rivers and the benefits such observations can bring to forecasts of precipitation and flooding.
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Clouds in the Caribbean – un carnet de voyage around EUREC4A

After spending a week at the ambitious EUREC4A observing campaign, Irina Sandu shares her excitement about how this major German-French led international effort can change our understanding of the coupling between clouds and circulation, and their representation in weather and climate models.
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Visit to a DWD super-site helps understand sources of near-surface temperature biases

Polly Schmederer looks at how measurements from observational super-sites are helping to better understand errors in forecasts of near-surface temperature.
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Modelling convective precipitation – progress and challenges

Exciting improvements in modelling convective precipitation are being achieved through the collaboration of visiting scientist Tobias Becker, from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, with ECMWF’s Irina Sandu and Peter Bechtold.
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Forecasting tropical cyclones and flooding

To mark the UN International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction on 13 October, Linus Magnusson discusses ECMWF forecasts of tropical cyclones and the destructive floods that can result.
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Will machine learning replace conventional weather prediction models?

Following a recent workshop, Peter Dueben discusses recent progress and future possibilities in the application of machine learning to weather and climate prediction.
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Why we need to protect weather prediction from radio frequency interference

Stephen English explains why, in a world hungry for the use of radio frequencies in new applications, the meteorological community needs to be clear about their critical value for weather prediction.
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ECMWF over the Moon

As we celebrate the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing, Philippe Lopez investigates whether the ECMWF forecasting model can reproduce the detailed cloud patterns captured in those early, iconic images of planet Earth from space.