The SEWA Scoping Study is a foundational step for the Africa–EU Space Partnership Programme’s efforts to strengthen early warning systems for hazardous weather and climate-related events, particularly under the SEWA Action. It aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the current landscape of early warning and impact-based forecast (IbF) initiatives across Africa.
Key objectives
- Map existing initiatives: Identify and catalogue current early warning and IbF initiatives, data sources, and interfaces across Africa.
- Assess user needs and gaps: Engage stakeholders to collect user requirements, operational contexts, and assess gaps and priorities for early warning and IbF systems.
- Assess hazards and impacts: Evaluate the landscape of weather and climate-induced hazards and their impacts, prioritizing hazards by region and identifying cross-cutting issues.
- Develop action plans: Propose actionable plans for regional IbF pilot demonstrators in West, East, Central, and Southern Africa, including the Indian Ocean Islands.
- Reflect on sustainability and ownership: Analyze sustainability pathways, ownership mechanisms, and lessons learned from past initiatives to ensure long-term impact and local capacity building.
Africa faces increasing risks from severe weather and climate events, but many institutions lack access to and capacity for using advanced weather and climate data. The study will ensure that future investments and pilot projects are evidence-based, address real user needs, and are strategically aligned with African and European priorities. The Scoping Study was conducted on behalf of ECMWF by a consortium composed of HKV (lead), the Netherlands Redcross/510, Deltares and TAHMO. It was structured around five different work packages (WPs) and is designed to lay the groundwork for effective, sustainable, and user-driven early warning and impact-based forecasting systems across Africa, ensuring that subsequent regional pilots and investments are targeted, complementary, and impactful.
- WP1: Literature review and mapping of existing initiatives, data and interfaces
- WP2: Stakeholder engagement and user requirements
- WP3: Hazard and impact landscape assessment
- WP4: Reflection on sustainability, ownership and lessons from past initiatives
- WP5: Actions plan for regional pilots
Deliverables
The following deliverables are available to the public:
- Synthesis report
-
Synthesis report: Work Package 1 provides an overview of the current landscape of Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Impact-based Forecasting (IbF) in Africa, including initiatives and projects, literature, climate trends, datasets and data portals, exposure and vulnerability information, AI/ML tools, and capacity-building and training activities. This synthesis is written to support the scoping study in translating the WP1 deliverables into design choices for the next phases of the project, in particular the development of regional pilots and action plans. The synthesis is intended as a guiding document. It brings together the different information components of WP1 into an integrated regional perspective. The synthesis directly supports WP3 (hazard prioritisation), WP4 (sustainability and ownership), and WP5 (regional pilot design).
- Storylines
-
Storylines: The aim of the storylines is to provide clear, region-specific, real-world examples that illustrate how severe weather events have impacted different African regions and to demonstrate how improved impact-based forecasting (IbF) could have changed the outcomes. Each storyline is designed to ground the assessment in reality by describing actual severe weather events that have occurred in each region, the storylines make the analysis more tangible and relatable for stakeholders and decision-makers. The storylines show, in practical terms, how better data, forecasts, or coordination could have mitigated the impacts of these events. This helps to communicate the added value of integrated early warning approaches.
- Hazard prioritisation
-
Hazard prioritisation: The aim of this hazard prioritisation to systematically identify and rank the most significant weather and climate-induced hazards for each African region (West, East, Central, and Southern Africa, including the Indian Ocean Islands) and at the continental taking into account the five priority hazards identified by the Early Warning for All initiative in Africa (Riverine Flooding, Heatwave, Flash Flood, Drought and Tropical Cyclones) and two space-based hazards (Dust and Wildfires). This prioritisation is based on objective criteria such as:
Impact: The severity and consequences of hazards on people, infrastructure, and economies.
Prevalence: How frequently hazards occur in each region.
Relevance: The importance of hazards as reported by stakeholders and their alignment with regional needs.
Stakeholder interest/impact: Input from regional stakeholders on which hazards are most critical to address.
- Pathways to sustainability and ownership
-
Pathways to sustainability and ownership: This report explores the history, current efforts, challenges, and strategic pathways for establishing sustainable impact-based flood warning systems across Africa, emphasizing the roles of key institutions, infrastructure and capacity building.
- Dashboard
-
Dashboard: The dashboard results from Work Package 1 and gives an overview of literature, initiatives and training, as well as data on hazards, exposure and vulnerability relevant to SEWA on a continental, regional and national basis (if available).