ECMWF Newsletter #186

Building the foundations ahead

Florian Pappenberger. Director-General.

Taking up the role of Director-General at ECMWF at the start of this year is both a privilege and a responsibility. We enter 2026 with a strong scientific, technical and operational legacy, trusted partnerships across Europe and beyond, and a clear purpose: to deliver forecasts and information that help societies prepare for and respond to severe weather. My focus now is to build on these foundations to meet the demands of a rapidly evolving world.

This newsletter reflects a central theme for the years ahead: turning excellence across the entire forecast chain into robust, reliable and impactful services for our national hydrometeorological services (NMHSs). From observations and data assimilation, through software engineering and high-performance computing, to product delivery and user engagement, we are strengthening the pipeline end-to-end so that innovation translates into measurable benefits.

Several feature articles illustrate this clearly. Advances in medium-range forecast skill, improvements in ensemble initial conditions, and the assimilation of new observation types all contribute directly to forecast reliability. At the same time, we are adapting our Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) to next-generation high-performance computing architectures to ensure that our forecasts can be delivered efficiently and sustainably on Europe’s future supercomputers. These efforts are not ends in themselves; they enable faster development cycles, higher-resolution modelling, and more timely information for users.

Machine learning (ML) is now a stable part of this landscape. Integrating ML-based systems with deep physically based knowledge – and incorporating them consistently into operations – is one of our most exciting challenges. Our work on ML-driven forecasting in co-development with our NMHSs, as well as the integration of new components such as snow fields into the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), reflects our commitment to innovation that delivers impact. Our aim is not novelty for its own sake but to push the boundaries where it delivers added forecast value: enhancing skill, reliability, resilience and usability.

That extends beyond our forecasting systems. Initiatives such as ClimAfrica and the conclusion of the EO4EU project show how ECMWF supports early warning, climate resilience and decision-making, in close partnership with our Member and Co-operating States and users. Our new single access point for learning resources is another step towards making knowledge easier to find and apply.

Following ECMWF’s 50th anniversary year, it is worth reflecting on what underpins our success: people and partnerships – across disciplines, institutions and borders. Looking ahead, my priority is to strengthen these collaborations, listen to user needs, and ensure our forecasts continue to deliver tangible benefits to our national hydrometeorological services. This newsletter offers a snapshot of that journey. I look forward to continuing it together.

Florian Pappenberger
Director-General