ECMWF-WWRP/THORPEX Workshop on polar prediction

The ECMWF-WWRP/THORPEX Workshop on polar prediction was held from 24 to 27 June 2013.

Description

Interest in the polar regions continues to grow as the local amplification of anthropogenic climate change becomes apparent in the climatological record. Expansion of human activities in polar regions are leading to more demands for sustained, improved, and integrated observational and predictive weather, climate and water information in support of decision making. Meeting the demand for such services will require the resolution of important knowledge gaps in polar regions across weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting scales, and all latitudes.

In order to meet growing demand for skilful predictions in polar regions and beyond the following key research areas will be addressed during the workshop

  • Predictability and forecast error diagnosis in polar regions;
  • Two-way linkages between polar and lower latitudes, and their implications for global prediction;
  • Representation of polar key processes in (coupled) models of the atmosphere, land, ocean and cryosphere;
  • Data assimilation systems that account for the unique characteristics of polar regions;
  • Optimizing polar observing systems, and coordinate additional observations to support modelling and verification.

Programme

PDF iconProgramme

Presentations

Monday  

WWRP Polar Prediction Project

Thomas Jung (AWI)

PDF icon

Polar climate predictability

Ted Shepherd (University Reading)

PDF icon

Polar prediction at ECMWF

Peter Bauer (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Numerical weather prediction for the Arctic and the Antarctic

Dave Bromwich (Ohio State University)

PDF icon
Tuesday  

Predictability

 

Small-scale ice-ocean-wave processes and their impact on coupled environmental polar prediction

Gregory Smith (Environment Canada)

PDF icon

The role of sea-ice in extended range prediction of atmosphere and ocean

Virginie Guemas (IC3 Barcelona)

PDF icon

Using reanalyses for studying past Eurasian snow cover and its relationship with circulation variability

Eric Brun (Météo-France)

PDF icon

Polar lows – still a considerable challenge for polar weather prediction?

Trond Iversen (Met Norway)

PDF icon

Seasonal to decadal prediction of the Arctic Oscillation

Doug Smith (Met Office)

PDF icon

Observations/ data assimilation

 

Polar observation networks

Erik Andersson (ECMWF) & Etiienne Charpentier (WMO)

PDF icon

Satellite data relevant to polar prediction and climate studies

Mark Drinkwater (ESA)

PDF icon

Why modellers should care about field projects

Michael Tjernström (University of Stockholm)

PDF icon

Model performance and data impact over Antarctica

Florence Rabier (Météo-France)

PDF icon

Overview of sea ice data assimilation activities at Environment Canada

Mark Buehner (Environment Canada)

PDF icon

Modelling

 

Physical processes of the polar atmosphere

Anton Beljaars (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Polar storms and polar jets: meso-scale weather systems in the Arctic and Antarctic

Ian Renfrew (University of East Anglia)

PDF icon

Observations and modeling of polar clouds and their interactions with synoptic/ mesoscale "weather" and Arctic surface conditions

Ola Persson (CIRES/NOAA/ESRL)

PDF icon
Wednesday  

The state of affairs in modelling sea ice and its atmosphere/ocean interconnections

Elizabeth Hunke (LANL)

PDF icon

Snowpack modelling and data assimilation

Richard Essery (University of Edinburgh)

PDF icon

Forecast verification in a polar framework

Pertti Nurmi (FMI)

PDF icon

Diagnostics of the ensemble prediction system in polar regions

Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Posters

Mesoscale modelling of cold-air outbreaks over the marginal sea ice zone

Dmitry Chechin (Obukhov Inst. Atmospheric Physics RAS)

-

Seasonal forecasts of the Arctic sea ice cover with CNRM-CM5.1 global coupled model

Matthieu Chevallier (CNRS-GAME)

PDF icon

Idealised Arctic and regional sea ice cover predictions: initialisation month dependence

Jonny Day (University of Reading)

PDF icon

Atmospheric circulation in the Arctic: assessment of modeling performance and resolution issue

S.V. Efimov, I.M. Shkolnik

PDF icon

RO-2 Ice forecast and route optimization Abstract

Adriana Huerta-Casas (AWI)

PDF icon

Stochastic sea ice parameterization in the context of polar predictability

Stephan Juricke (AWI)

PDF icon

Forecast skill of sea-ice distribution in the next JMA's seasonal forecast model

Satoko Matsueda (Japan Meteorological Agency)

-

Evaluation of two NWP model experiments for very stable conditions over an Antarctic ice shelf

Tiina Nygard (FMI)

PDF icon

The role of cyclones and fronts for Southern Ocean precipitation and its variability

Lukas Papritz (ETH Zuerich)

PDF icon

Vertical motion and thermodynamic stability characteristics within Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus

Joseph Sedlar (SMHI)

-

Arctic cyclone activity in the Arctic System Reanalysis

Natalia Talanina (P.P. Shirshov Institute for Oceanology)

-

Working groups

PDF iconWorking groups report

Proceedings

Polar lows – still a considerable challenge for polar weather prediction?

Trond Iversen (Met Norway)

PDF icon

Small-scale ice-ocean-wave processes and their impact on coupled environmental polar prediction

Gregory Smith (Environment Canada)

PDF icon

Diagnostics of the ensemble prediction system in polar regions

Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)

PDF icon

Model performance and data impact over Antarctica

Florence Rabier (Météo-France)

PDF icon

Seasonal to decadal prediction of the Arctic Oscillation

Doug Smith (Met Office)

PDF icon

Numerical weather prediction for the Arctic and the Antarctic

Dave Bromwich (Ohio State University)

PDF icon

Snowpack modelling and data assimilation

Richard Essery (University of Edinburgh)

PDF icon

Why modellers should care about field projects

Michael Tjernström (University of Stockholm)

PDF icon

The state of affairs in modelling sea ice and its atmosphere/ocean interconnections

Elizabeth Hunke (LANL)

PDF icon

Overview of sea ice data assimilation activities at Environment Canada

Mark Buehner (Environment Canada)

PDF icon

Using reanalyses for studying past Eurasian snow cover and its relationship with circulation variability

Eric Brun (Météo-France)

PDF icon

Local information


You can also see an archive of past workshops

View full calendar of events