The ECMWF-WWRP/THORPEX Workshop on polar prediction was held from 24 to 27 June 2013.
Description
Interest in the polar regions continues to grow as the local amplification of anthropogenic climate change becomes apparent in the climatological record. Expansion of human activities in polar regions are leading to more demands for sustained, improved, and integrated observational and predictive weather, climate and water information in support of decision making. Meeting the demand for such services will require the resolution of important knowledge gaps in polar regions across weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting scales, and all latitudes.
In order to meet growing demand for skilful predictions in polar regions and beyond the following key research areas will be addressed during the workshop
- Predictability and forecast error diagnosis in polar regions;
- Two-way linkages between polar and lower latitudes, and their implications for global prediction;
- Representation of polar key processes in (coupled) models of the atmosphere, land, ocean and cryosphere;
- Data assimilation systems that account for the unique characteristics of polar regions;
- Optimizing polar observing systems, and coordinate additional observations to support modelling and verification.
Programme
Presentations
| Monday | |
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WWRP Polar Prediction Project Thomas Jung (AWI) |
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Polar climate predictability Ted Shepherd (University Reading) |
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Polar prediction at ECMWF Peter Bauer (ECMWF) |
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Numerical weather prediction for the Arctic and the Antarctic Dave Bromwich (Ohio State University) |
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| Tuesday | |
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Predictability |
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Small-scale ice-ocean-wave processes and their impact on coupled environmental polar prediction Gregory Smith (Environment Canada) |
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The role of sea-ice in extended range prediction of atmosphere and ocean Virginie Guemas (IC3 Barcelona) |
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Using reanalyses for studying past Eurasian snow cover and its relationship with circulation variability Eric Brun (Météo-France) |
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Polar lows – still a considerable challenge for polar weather prediction? Trond Iversen (Met Norway) |
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Seasonal to decadal prediction of the Arctic Oscillation Doug Smith (Met Office) |
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Observations/ data assimilation |
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Polar observation networks Erik Andersson (ECMWF) & Etiienne Charpentier (WMO) |
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Satellite data relevant to polar prediction and climate studies Mark Drinkwater (ESA) |
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Why modellers should care about field projects Michael Tjernström (University of Stockholm) |
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Model performance and data impact over Antarctica Florence Rabier (Météo-France) |
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Overview of sea ice data assimilation activities at Environment Canada Mark Buehner (Environment Canada) |
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Modelling |
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Physical processes of the polar atmosphere Anton Beljaars (ECMWF) |
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Polar storms and polar jets: meso-scale weather systems in the Arctic and Antarctic Ian Renfrew (University of East Anglia) |
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Observations and modeling of polar clouds and their interactions with synoptic/ mesoscale "weather" and Arctic surface conditions Ola Persson (CIRES/NOAA/ESRL) |
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| Wednesday | |
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The state of affairs in modelling sea ice and its atmosphere/ocean interconnections Elizabeth Hunke (LANL) |
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Snowpack modelling and data assimilation Richard Essery (University of Edinburgh) |
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Forecast verification in a polar framework Pertti Nurmi (FMI) |
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Diagnostics of the ensemble prediction system in polar regions Linus Magnusson (ECMWF) |
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Posters
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Mesoscale modelling of cold-air outbreaks over the marginal sea ice zone Dmitry Chechin (Obukhov Inst. Atmospheric Physics RAS) |
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Seasonal forecasts of the Arctic sea ice cover with CNRM-CM5.1 global coupled model Matthieu Chevallier (CNRS-GAME) |
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Idealised Arctic and regional sea ice cover predictions: initialisation month dependence Jonny Day (University of Reading) |
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Atmospheric circulation in the Arctic: assessment of modeling performance and resolution issue S.V. Efimov, I.M. Shkolnik |
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RO-2 Ice forecast and route optimization Abstract Adriana Huerta-Casas (AWI) |
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Stochastic sea ice parameterization in the context of polar predictability Stephan Juricke (AWI) |
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Forecast skill of sea-ice distribution in the next JMA's seasonal forecast model Satoko Matsueda (Japan Meteorological Agency) |
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Evaluation of two NWP model experiments for very stable conditions over an Antarctic ice shelf Tiina Nygard (FMI) |
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The role of cyclones and fronts for Southern Ocean precipitation and its variability Lukas Papritz (ETH Zuerich) |
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Vertical motion and thermodynamic stability characteristics within Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus Joseph Sedlar (SMHI) |
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Arctic cyclone activity in the Arctic System Reanalysis Natalia Talanina (P.P. Shirshov Institute for Oceanology) |
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Working groups
Proceedings
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Polar lows – still a considerable challenge for polar weather prediction? Trond Iversen (Met Norway) |
|
|
Small-scale ice-ocean-wave processes and their impact on coupled environmental polar prediction Gregory Smith (Environment Canada) |
|
|
Diagnostics of the ensemble prediction system in polar regions Linus Magnusson (ECMWF) |
|
|
Model performance and data impact over Antarctica Florence Rabier (Météo-France) |
|
|
Seasonal to decadal prediction of the Arctic Oscillation Doug Smith (Met Office) |
|
|
Numerical weather prediction for the Arctic and the Antarctic Dave Bromwich (Ohio State University) |
|
|
Snowpack modelling and data assimilation Richard Essery (University of Edinburgh) |
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Why modellers should care about field projects Michael Tjernström (University of Stockholm) |
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|
The state of affairs in modelling sea ice and its atmosphere/ocean interconnections Elizabeth Hunke (LANL) |
|
|
Overview of sea ice data assimilation activities at Environment Canada Mark Buehner (Environment Canada) |
|
|
Using reanalyses for studying past Eurasian snow cover and its relationship with circulation variability Eric Brun (Météo-France) |
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