Ongoing research project | 2015 to 2019
IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes
Learn from today to anticipate tomorrow
Recent extreme hydrological events demonstrate the vulnerability of European society to water-related natural hazards, and there is strong evidence that climate change will worsen these events. Improved forecasting through better prediction of drivers of this type of event is urgently needed to appropriately inform science-based risk management strategies and adaptation options. Such enhancement in our forecast capability will increase the resilience of the European society as a whole, while reducing costs for strategic sectors and regions.
In this context, the IMPREX project is designed to support the reduction of Europe’s vulnerability to extreme hydrological events through improved understanding of the intensity and frequency of future disrupting features that may be very different from today’s reality.
By combining expertise from both public and private sector, the IMPREX project consortium aims to bridge the gap that often exists between users and providers of hydro-climatic information. The goal is to substantially improve our forecasting capability of hydrological extremes and their impacts at short to seasonal time scales.
At ECMWF, the IMPREX project has investigated the possibility of providing earlier awareness of extreme hydrological events. Recent results have shown that by using water vapour flux in the form of the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, there may be added usefulness in capturing extreme European precipitation. Further details are available in this article: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0073.1