Florian Pappenberger

Director of Forecasts

Forecast Department

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Profile

Summary:

Florian Pappenberger is Director of Forecasts at ECMWF. Florian has a scientific background in the forecasting of weather driven natural hazards including floods, droughts, windstorms, forest fires and impacts on human health. He has over 10 years of expertise in operational probabilistic forecasting, extreme value statistics and numerical model system development at ECMWF and was responsible for the development and implementation of the operational centre of the Copernicus Emergency Service - Early Warning Systems (floods). Florian is the author of over 150 publications, has won several scientific awards and is visiting Professor at the University of Bristol. He is an elected fellow of the Royal Geographical Society and the Royal Meteorological Society and a member of several other professional bodies including HEPEX, British Hydrological Society, EGU, AGU, EMS, AMS. He is on the editorial board of several international scientific journals and regularly advises on WMO and other international committees.

Professional interests:

Early warning systems and Disaster Risk Reduction
Forecasting of natural hazards driven by Numerical Weather Prediction models
Uncertainty/Sensitivity analysis and cascading of uncertainty/sensitivity
Statistical post- and pre-processing of hydro-meteorological variables
Forecast verification and forecast decision-making
Increasing the usage and usefulness of ensemble forecasts

Career background:

Education

PhD, Lancaster University, UK (awarded 2004). Thesis: “Uncertainty in flood inundation modelling”. Supervisor: Prof Keith Beven

MSc, Lancaster University, UK (awarded 2000 with distinction). Dissertation: “Uncertainty in flood inundation modeling on the River Morava (Czech Republic)”. Supervisor: Prof Keith Beven

Professional Experience

From 2016 - Director of Forecasts, ECMWF
2014-2017 - Visiting Professor, Department of Geography, Bristol University, UK
2011-2014 - Visiting Professor, College of Hydrology & Water Resources, Hohai University, China
2006-2016 - Principal Scientist and Team Leader responsible for the operational centre of the European Flood Awareness System and the applications of NWP team, ECMWF
2008-2010 - Consultant on the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) project: Europeanizing flood forecasting of risk and science in the EU, EU/702283211
2009-2010 - Guest Lecturer, Department of Geography, King's College London, UK
2004-2006 - Post-doctoral research assistant on the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium, Hydrology and Fluid Dynamics Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Lancaster, UK
2004 - Postdoctoral researcher, European Flood Alert System, European Commission Joint Research Centre, Weather Driven Natural Hazards Action, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Varese, Italy
2000 - Visiting Scientist, TG Masaryk Water Research Institute, Prague, Czech Republic
1998 - Research Assistant, University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

External recognitions:

Awards and Fellowships

2015 Runner up, Harry Otten Prize for Innovation in Meteorology for "A global approach to predicting flash floods" (details, abstract)
2012 IES Excellence Award 2011 for "Support to EU Policy", awarded to the EFAS team
2011 Arne Richter Award for Outstanding Young Scientists (EGU)

Publications

Latest publications
To see all publications please visit the links on the right-hand side

2019
- Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Tirthankar Roy, Graham P. Weedon, Florian Pappenberger, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, George J. Huffman, Robert F. Adler, Eric F. Wood (January 2019) Daily evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets using Stage-IV gauge-radar data for the CONUS, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-207-2019
- Florian Pappenberger, Hannah L. Cloke, Calum A. Baugh (February 2019) Cartograms for Use in Forecasting Weather-Driven Natural Hazards, The Cartographic Journal. DOI: 10.1080/00087041.2018.1534358
- Claudia Vitolo, Claudia Di Napoli, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Hannah L. Cloke, Florian Pappenberger (June 2019) Mapping combined wildfire and heat stress hazards to improve evidence-based decision making, Environment International, pp. 21–34. DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.03.008
2018
- Rebecca Emerton, Ervin Zsoter, Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Davide Muraro, Christel Prudhomme, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Peter Salamon, Florian Pappenberger (August 2018) Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0, Geoscientific Model Development n. 8, pp. 3327–3346. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-3327-2018
- Hylke E. Beck, Ming Pan, Tirthankar Roy, Graham P. Weedon, Florian Pappenberger, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, George J. Huffman, Robert F. Adler, Eric F. Wood (September 2018) Daily evaluation of 26 precipitation datasets using Stage-IV gauge-radar data for the CONUS, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, pp. 1–23. DOI: 10.5194/hess-2018-481
- Stefan Kollet, Fabian Gasper, Slavko Brdar, Klaus Goergen, Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen, Jessica Keune, Wolfgang Kurtz, Volker Küll, Florian Pappenberger, Stefan Poll, Silke Trömel, Prabhakar Shrestha, Clemens Simmer, Mauro Sulis (October 2018) Introduction of an Experimental Terrestrial Forecasting/Monitoring System at Regional to Continental Scales Based on the Terrestrial System Modeling Platform (v1.1.0). DOI: 10.20944/preprints201810.0625.v1
- Stefan Kollet, Fabian Gasper, Slavko Brdar, Klaus Goergen, Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen, Jessica Keune, Wolfgang Kurtz, Volker Küll, Florian Pappenberger, Stefan Poll, Silke Trömel, Prabhakar Shrestha, Clemens Simmer, Mauro Sulis (November 2018) Introduction of an Experimental Terrestrial Forecasting/Monitoring System at Regional to Continental Scales Based on the Terrestrial System Modeling Platform (v1.1.0). DOI: 10.20944/preprints201810.0625.v2
- Stefan Kollet, Fabian Gasper, Slavko Brdar, Klaus Goergen, Harrie-Jan Hendricks-Franssen, Jessica Keune, Wolfgang Kurtz, Volker Küll, Florian Pappenberger, Stefan Poll, Silke Trömel, Prabhakar Shrestha, Clemens Simmer, Mauro Sulis (November 2018) Introduction of an Experimental Terrestrial Forecasting/Monitoring System at Regional to Continental Scales Based on the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (v1.1.0), Water. DOI: 10.3390/w10111697
- Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, Florian Pappenberger (December 2018) On the use of weather regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-18-3297-2018
- Gianpaolo Balsamo, Anna Agusti-Panareda, Clément Albergel, Gabriele Arduini, Anton Beljaars, Jean Bidlot, Nicolas Bousserez, Souhail Boussetta, Andy Brown, Roberto Buizza, Carlo Buontempo, Frédéric Chevallier, Margarita Choulga, Hannah Cloke, Meghan Cronin, Mohamed Dahoui, Patricia de Rosnay, Paul Dirmeyer, Emanuel Dutra, Michael B. Ek, Pierre Gentine, Helene Hewitt, Sarah Keeley, Yann Kerr, SUJAY KUMAR, Cristina Lupu, Jean-Francois Mahfouf, Joe McNorton, Susanne Mecklenburg, Kristian Mogensen, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Rene Orth, Florence Rabier, Rolf Reichle, Ben Ruston, Florian Pappenberger, Irina Sandu, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Steffen Tietsche, Isabel Trigo, Remko Uijlenhoet, Nils Wedi, R. Iestyn Woolway, Xubin Zeng (December 2018) Satellite and In Situ Observations for Advancing Global Earth Surface Modelling: A Review, Remote Sensing. DOI: 10.3390/rs10122038
- Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christel Prudhomme, Jessica Neumann, Blazej Krzeminski, Florian Pappenberger (April 2018) Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 4, pp. 2057–2072. DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
- Erin Coughlan de Perez, Maarten van Aalst, Konstantinos Bischiniotis, Simon Mason, Hannah Nissan, Florian Pappenberger, Elisabeth Stephens, Ervin Zsoter, Bart van den Hurk (May 2018) Global predictability of temperature extremes, Environmental Research Letters. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab94a
- Rebecca Emerton, Ervin Zsoter, Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Davide Muraro, Christel Prudhomme, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Peter Salamon, Florian Pappenberger (May 2018) Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS v2.2 Seasonal v1.0, Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, pp. 1–31. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2018-118
- Di Napoli Claudia, Pappenberger Florian, Cloke Hannah L (2018) Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)., International journal of biometeorology. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-018-1518-2
- Santoro Mattia, Andres Volker, Jirka Simon, Koike Toshio, Looser Ulrich, Nativi Stefano, Pappenberger Florian, Schlummer Manuela, Strauch Adrian, Utech Michael, Zsoter Ervin (2018) Interoperability challenges in river discharge modelling: A cross domain application scenario, Computers & Geosciences, pp. 66-74. DOI: 10.1016/j.cageo.2018.03.008
- Christophe Lavaysse, Jürgen Vogt, Andrea Toreti, Marco L. Carrera, Florian Pappenberger (July 2018) On the use of Weather Regimes to forecast meteorological drought over Europe, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, pp. 1–38. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2018-199
- David A. Lavers, Mark J. Rodwell, David S. Richardson, F. Martin Ralph, James D. Doyle, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Vijay Tallapragada, Florian Pappenberger (August 2018) The Gauging and Modeling of Rivers in the Sky, Geophysical Research Letters n. 15, pp. 7828–7834. DOI: 10.1029/2018GL079019
- Bernhofen Mark V., Whyman Charlie, Trigg Mark A., Sleigh P. Andrew, Smith Andrew M., Sampson Christopher C., Yamazaki Dai, Ward Philip J., Rudari Roberto, Pappenberger Florian, Dottori Francesco, Salamon Peter, Winsemius Hessel C. (2018) A first collective validation of global fluvial flood models for major floods in Nigeria and Mozambique, Environmental Research Letters n. 10. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aae014
- Lavers David A., Richardson David S., Ramos Alexandre M., Zsoter Ervin, Pappenberger Florian, Trigo Ricardo M. (2018) Earlier awareness of extreme winter precipitation across the western Iberian Peninsula, Meteorological Applications n. 4, pp. 622-628. DOI: 10.1002/met.1727
- Tian Fuqiang, Li Yilu, Zhao Tongtiegang, Hu Hongchang, Pappenberger Florian, Jiang Yunzhong, Lu Hui (2018) Evaluation of the ECMWF System 4 climate forecasts for streamflow forecasting in the Upper Hanjiang River Basin, Hydrology Research n. 6, pp. 1864-1879. DOI: 10.2166/nh.2018.176
- Di Giuseppe Francesca, Remy Samuel, Pappenberger Florian, Wetterhall Fredrik (2018) Using the Fire Weather Index (FWI) to improve the estimation of fire emissions from fire radiative power (FRP) observations, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics n. 8, pp. 5359-5370. DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-5359-2018
- Trigg M. A., Birch C. E., Neal J. C., Bates P. D., Smith A., Sampson C. C., Yamazaki D., Hirabayashi Y., Pappenberger F., Dutra E., Ward P. J., Winsemius H. C., Salamon P., Dottori F., Rudari R., Kappes M. S., Simpson A. L., Hadzilacos G., Fewtrell T. J. (2018) The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis (vol 11, 094014, 2016), Environmental Research Letters n. 9. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aadcd0
2017
- Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, Florian Pappenberger, Charles Perrin (March 2017) Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 3, pp. 1573–1591. DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-1573-2017
- R. Emerton, H. L. Cloke, E. M. Stephens, E. Zsoter, S. J. Woolnough, F. Pappenberger (March 2017) Complex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazard, Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14796
- David Ocio, Nataliya Le Vine, Ida Westerberg, Florian Pappenberger, Wouter Buytaert (May 2017) The role of rating curve uncertainty in real-time flood forecasting, Water Resources Research n. 5, pp. 4197–4213. DOI: 10.1002/2016WR020225
- Hylke E. Beck, Noemi Vergopolan, Ming Pan, Vincenzo Levizzani, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Graham Weedon, Luca Brocca, Florian Pappenberger, George J. Huffman, Eric F. Wood (August 2017) Global-scale evaluation of 23 precipitation datasets using gauge observations and hydrological modeling, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, pp. 1–23. DOI: 10.5194/hess-2017-508
- Erin Coughlan de Perez, Elisabeth Stephens, Konstantinos Bischiniotis, Maarten van Aalst, Bart van den Hurk, Simon Mason, Hannah Nissan, Florian Pappenberger (September 2017) Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 9, pp. 4517–4524. DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
- Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christel Prudhomme, Jessica Neumann, Blazej Krzeminski, Florian Pappenberger (October 2017) Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, pp. 1–27. DOI: 10.5194/hess-2017-610
- Flavio Lehner, Andrew W. Wood, Dagmar Llewellyn, Douglas B. Blatchford, Angus G. Goodbody, Florian Pappenberger (December 2017) Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Nonstationarity on Seasonal Streamflow Predictability in the U.S. Southwest, Geophysical Research Letters n. 24, pp. 12,208–12,217. DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076043
- Hylke E. Beck, Noemi Vergopolan, Ming Pan, Vincenzo Levizzani, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Graham P. Weedon, Luca Brocca, Florian Pappenberger, George J. Huffman, Eric F. Wood (December 2017) Global-scale evaluation of 22 precipitation datasets using gauge observations and hydrological modeling, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 12, pp. 6201–6217. DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017
- Erin Coughlan de Perez, Elisabeth Stephens, Konstantinos Bischiniotis, Maarten van Aalst, Bart van den Hurk, Simon Mason, Hannah Nissan, Florian Pappenberger (February 2017) Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, pp. 1–14.
- Qu B., Zhang X., Pappenberger F., Zhang T., Fang Y. (2017) Multi-model grand ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the Fu river basin using Bayesian model averaging, Water (Switzerland) n. 2. DOI: 10.3390/w9020074
- Cloke H.L., Pappenberger F., Smith P.J., Wetterhall F. (2017) How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system?, Environmental Research Letters n. 4. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a
- Grippa M., Kergoat L., Boone A., Peugeot C., Demarty J., Cappelaere B., Gal L., Hiernaux P., Mougin E., Ducharne A., Dutra E., Anderson M., Hain C., Ait-Mesbah S., Polcher J., Balsamo G., Boussetta S., Pappenberger F., Favot F., Guichard F., Kaptue A., Roujean J.-L., Chaffard V., Cohard J.M., Gascon T., Galle S., Hector B., Lebel T., Séguis L., Velluet C., Quantin G., Vischel T., Verseghy D., Magand C., Getirana A., Pierre C., Gusev Y., Nasonova O., Harris P., He X., Yorozu K., Kotsuki S., Tanaka K., Kim H., Oki T., Kumar S., Lo M.-H., Mahanama S., Maignan F., Ottlé C., Mamadou O., Shmakin A., Sokratov V., Turkov D. (2017) Modeling Surface runoff and water fluxes over contrasted soils in the pastoral sahel: Evaluation of the ALMIP2 land surface models over the Gourma Region in Mali, Journal of Hydrometeorology n. 7, pp. 1847-1866. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0170.1
- Arnal L., Wood A.W., Stephens E., Cloke H.L., Pappenberger F. (2017) An efficient approach for estimating streamflow forecast skill elasticity, Journal of Hydrometeorology n. 6, pp. 1715-1729. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1
- Lavers D.A., Zsoter E., Richardson D.S., Pappenberger F. (2017) An assessment of the ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport during boreal winter, Weather and Forecasting n. 4, pp. 1667-1674. DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-17-0073.1
- Getirana A., Boone A., Peugeot C., Ait-Mesbah S., Polcher J., Anderson M., Balsamo G., Boussetta S., Dutra E., Pappenberger F., Hain C., Boone A., Favot F., Guichard F., Kaptue A., Roujean J.-L., Cappelaere B., Demarty J., Peugeot C., Séguis L., Velluet C., Chaffard V., Cohard J.M., Gascon T., Galle S., Hector B., Lebel T., Pellarin T., Richard A., Quantin G., Vischel T., Chan E., Verseghy D., Ducharne A., Magand C., Getirana A., Grippa M., Hiernaux P., Kergoat L., Mougin E., Pierre C., Gusev Y., Nasonova O., Harris P., He X., Yorozu K., Kotsuki S., Tanaka K., Kenkyusho R., Kim H., Oki T., Kumar S., Lo M.-H., Mahanama S., Maignan F., Ottlé C., Mamadou O., Shmakin A., Sokratov V., Turkov D. (2017) Streamflows over a West African basin from the ALMIP2 model ensemble, Journal of Hydrometeorology n. 7, pp. 1831-1845. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0233.1
- Di Giuseppe Francesca, Remy Samuel, Pappenberger Florian, Wetterhall Fredrik (2017) Improving Forecasts of Biomass Burning Emissions with the Fire Weather Index, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology n. 10, pp. 2789-2799. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0405.1
2016
- Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, Florian Pappenberger, Charles Perrin (June 2016) Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, pp. 1–33. DOI: 10.5194/hess-2016-285
- David A. Lavers, Florian Pappenberger, David S. Richardson, Ervin Zsoter (November 2016) ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation, Geophysical Research Letters n. 22, pp. 11,852–11,858.
- (January 2016) Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. DOI: 10.5194/hess-2016-20
- (February 2016) Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. DOI: 10.5194/hess-2016-28
- (February 2016) Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. DOI: 10.5194/hess-2016-78
- De Perez E.C., Van Den Hurk B., Van Aalst M.K., Amuron I., Bamanya D., Hauser T., Jongma B., Lopez A., Mason S., De Suarez J.M., Pappenberger F., Rueth A., Stephens E., Suarez P., Wagemaker J., Zsoter E. (2016) Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 9, pp. 3549-3560. DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016
- Snow A.D., Christensen S.D., Swain N.R., Nelson E.J., Ames D.P., Jones N.L., Ding D., Noman N.S., David C.H., Pappenberger F., Zsoter E. (2016) A High-Resolution National-Scale Hydrologic Forecast System from a Global Ensemble Land Surface Model, Journal of the American Water Resources Association n. 4, pp. 950-964. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12434
- Crochemore L., Ramos M.-H., Pappenberger F. (2016) Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 9, pp. 3601-3618. DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016
- Crochemore Louise, Ramos Maria-Helena, Pappenberger Florian, van Andel Schalk Jan, Wood Andrew W. (2016) AN EXPERIMENT ON RISK-BASED DECISION-MAKING IN WATER MANAGEMENT USING MONTHLY PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society n. 4, pp. 541-551. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00270.1
- Pagano Thomas C., Pappenberger Florian, Wood Andrew W., Ramos Maria-Helena, Persson Anders, Anderson Brett (2016) Automation and human expertise in operational river forecasting, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Water n. 5, pp. 692-705. DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1163
- Zsoter Ervin, Pappenberger Florian, Smith Paul, Emerton Rebecca Elizabeth, Dutra Emanuel, Wetterhall Fredrik, Richardson David, Bogner Konrad, Balsamo Gianpaolo (2016) Building a Multimodel Flood Prediction System with the TIGGE Archive, Journal of Hydrometeorology n. 11, pp. 2923-2940. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0130.1
- Emerton Rebecca E., Stephens Elisabeth M., Pappenberger Florian, Pagano Thomas C., Weerts Albrecht H., Wood Andy W., Salamon Peter, Brown James D., Hjerdt Niclas, Donnelly Chantal, Baugh Calum A., Cloke Hannah L. (2016) Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Water n. 3, pp. 391-418. DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1137
- Orth R., Dutra E., Pappenberger F. (2016) Improving weather predictability by including land surface model parameter uncertainty, Monthly Weather Review n. 4, pp. 1551-1569. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0283.1
- Macleod D.A., Cloke H.L., Pappenberger F., Weisheimer A. (2016) Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 694, pp. 79-90. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2631
- van den Hurk B.J.J.M., Bouwer L.M., Buontempo C., Döscher R., Ercin E., Hananel C., Hunink J.E., Kjellström E., Klein B., Manez M., Pappenberger F., Pouget L., Ramos M.-H., Ward P.J., Weerts A.H., Wijngaard J.B. (2016) Improving predictions and management of hydrological extremes through climate services, Climate Services, pp. 6-11. DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2016.01.001
- Hemri S., Haiden T., Pappenberger F. (2016) Discrete postprocessing of total cloud cover ensemble forecasts, Monthly Weather Review n. 7, pp. 2565-2577. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0426.1
- MacLeod D., Cloke H., Pappenberger F., Weisheimer A. (2016) Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 7, pp. 2737-2743. DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016
- Smith P.J., Pappenberger F., Wetterhall F., Thielen Del Pozo J., Krzeminski B., Salamon P., Muraro D., Kalas M., Baugh C. (2016) On the Operational Implementation of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective, pp. 313-348. DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-801884-2.00011-6
- Skoien Jon Olav, Bogner Konrad, Salamon Peter, Smith Paul, Pappenberger Florian, Schumann AH, Bloschl G, Castellarin A, Dietrich J, Grimaldi S, Haberlandt U, Montanari A, Rosbjerg D, Viglione A, Vorogushyn S (2016) Regionalization of post-processed ensemble runoff forecasts, Spatial Dimensions of Water Management - Redistribution of Benefits and Risks, pp. 109-114. DOI: 10.5194/piahs-373-109-2016
- Francesca Di Giuseppe, Florian Pappenberger, Fredrik Wetterhall, Blazej Krzeminski, San-Miguel-Ayanz J., Camia A., Libertà G. (2016) NWP-driven fire danger forecasting for Copernicus, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 147, pp. 34-39. DOI: 10.21957/ett9cmqc
- Paul Smith, Florian Pappenberger, Fredrik Wetterhall, Thielen J., Blazej Krzeminski, P. Salamon, D. Muraro, M. Kalas, Calum Baugh (2016) On the operational implementation of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 778. DOI: 10.21957/hytwj6azp
- Francesca Di Giuseppe, S. Remy, Florian Pappenberger, Fredrik Wetterhall (2016) Improving GFAS and CAMS biomass burning estimations by means of the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast system (GEFF), ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 790. DOI: 10.21957/uygqqtyh7
- Kauffeldt A., Wetterhall F., Pappenberger F., Salamon P., Thielen J. (2016) Technical review of large-scale hydrological models for implementation in operational flood forecasting schemes on continental level, Environmental Modelling and Software, pp. 68-76. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.09.009
- Swinbank R., Kyouda M., Buchanan P., Froude L., Hamill T.M., Hewson T.D., Keller J.H., Matsueda M., Methven J., Pappenberger F., Scheuerer M., Titley H.A., Wilson L., Yamaguchi M. (2016) The TIGGE project and its achievements, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society n. 1, pp. 49-67. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00191.1
- Trigg M.A., Birch C.E., Neal J.C., Bates P.D., Smith A., Sampson C.C., Yamazaki D., Hirabayashi Y., Pappenberger F., Dutra E., Ward P.J., Winsemius H.C., Salamon P., Dottori F., Rudari R., Kappes M.S., Simpson A.L., Hadzilacos G., Fewtrell T.J. (2016) The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis, Environmental Research Letters n. 9. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014
- Di Giuseppe F., Pappenberger F., Wetterhall F., Krzeminski B., Camia A., Libertá G., Miguel J.S. (2016) The potential predictability of fire danger provided by numerical weather prediction, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology n. 11, pp. 2469-2491. DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0297.1
- Arnal L., Ramos M.-H., De Perez E.C., Cloke H.L., Stephens E., Wetterhall F., Van Andel S.J., Pappenberger F. (2016) Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: A risk-based decision-making game, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 8, pp. 3109-3128. DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016
- Hirpa F.A., Salamon P., Alfieri L., Thielen-del Pozo J., Zsoter E., Pappenberger F. (2016) The effect of reference climatology on global flood forecasting, Journal of Hydrometeorology n. 4, pp. 1131-1145. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0044.1
- Anna Mueller-Quintino, Emanuel Dutra, Hannah L. Cloke, A. Verhoef, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Florian Pappenberger (2016) Water infiltration and redistribution in Land Surface Models, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 791. DOI: 10.21957/ppksejqu9
2015
- (February 2015) Early warning of drought in Europe using the monthly ensemble system from ECMWF, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. DOI: 10.5194/hessd-12-1973-2015
- F. Wetterhall, H. C. Winsemius, E. Dutra, M. Werner, E. Pappenberger (June 2015) Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 6, pp. 2577–2586. DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-2577-2015
- MacLeod D.A., Hannah L. Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, Antje Weisheimer (August 2015) Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 761. DOI: 10.21957/mxwgvn79n
- Balsamo G., Albergel C., Beljaars A., Boussetta S., Brun E., Cloke H., Dee D., Dutra E., Munoz-Sabater J., Pappenberger F., de Rosnay P., Stockdale T., Vitart F. (2015) ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 1, pp. 389-407. DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-389-2015
- Pappenberger F., Ramos M. H., Cloke H. L., Wetterhall F., Alfieri L., Bogner K., Mueller A., Salamon P. (2015) How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in hydrological ensemble prediction, Journal of Hydrology, pp. 697-713. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.024
- Thiemig V., Bisselink B., Pappenberger F., Thielen J. (2015) A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 8, pp. 3365-3385. DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-3365-2015
- Lavaysse C., Vogt J., Pappenberger F. (2015) Early warning of drought in Europe using the monthly ensemble system from ECMWF, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 7, pp. 3273-3286. DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-3273-2015
- Field R.D., Spessa A.C., Aziz N.A., Camia A., Cantin A., Carr R., De Groot W.J., Dowdy A.J., Flannigan M.D., Manomaiphiboon K., Pappenberger F., Tanpipat V., Wang X. (2015) Development of a Global Fire Weather Database, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences n. 6, pp. 1407-1423. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-15-1407-2015
- Wetterhall F., Winsemius H.C., Dutra E., Werner M., Pappenberger F. (2015) Corrigendum to "Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2577-2586, 2015, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 6. DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-2637-2015
- Kiczko A., Romanowicz R.J., Osuch M., Pappenberger F. (2015) Adaptation of the integrated catchment system to on-line assimilation of ECMWF forecasts, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, pp. 173-186. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-18854-6_11
- Giustarini L., Chini M., Hostache R., Pappenberger F., Matgen P. (2015) Flood hazard mapping combining hydrodynamic modeling and multi annual remote sensing data, Remote Sensing n. 10, pp. 14200-14226. DOI: 10.3390/rs71014200
- David Richardson, Hemri S, K. Bogner, Gneiting T., Thomas Haiden, Florian Pappenberger, Scheuerer M. (2015) Calibration of ECMWF forecasts, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 142, pp. 12-16. DOI: 10.21957/45t3o8fj
- Ervin Zsoter, Richard Mladek, Florian Pappenberger, David Richardson, Hopsch S., Keller J., Swinbank R., Buchanan P., P. Arbogast, Joly B. (2015) GEOWOW project boosts access to Earth observation data, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 145, pp. 35-41. DOI: 10.21957/verls26y
- Beven Keith, Cloke Hannah, Pappenberger Florian, Lamb Rob, Hunter Neil (2015) Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface, Science China-Earth Sciences n. 1, pp. 25-35. DOI: 10.1007/s11430-014-5003-4
- Spessa A. C., Field R. D., Pappenberger F., Langner A., Englhart S., Weber U., Stockdale T., Siegert F., Kaiser J. W., Moore J. (2015) Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences n. 3, pp. 429-442. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-15-429-2015
- Pappenberger F., Cloke H.L., Parker D.J., Wetterhall F., Richardson D.S., Thielen J. (2015) The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe, Environmental Science and Policy, pp. 278-291. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2015.04.016
- Zsoter E., Pappenberger F., Richardson D. (2015) Sensitivity of model climate to sampling configurations and the impact on the Extreme Forecast Index, Meteorological Applications n. 2, pp. 236-247. DOI: 10.1002/met.1447
- Kauffeldt A., Halldin S., Pappenberger F., Wetterhall F., Xu C.-Y., Cloke H.L. (2015) Imbalanced land surface water budgets in a numerical weather prediction system, Geophysical Research Letters n. 11, pp. 4411-4417. DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064230
- Revilla-Romero B., Hirpa F.A., Pozo J.T., Salamon P., Brakenridge R., Pappenberger F., de Groeve T. (2015) On the use of global flood forecasts and satellite-derived inundation maps for flood monitoring in data-sparse regions, Remote Sensing n. 11, pp. 15702-15728. DOI: 10.3390/rs71115702
- Stephens E., Day J.J., Pappenberger F., Cloke H. (2015) Precipitation and floodiness, Geophysical Research Letters n. 23, pp. 10316-10323. DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066779
- De Groeve T., Thielen-del Pozo J., Brakenridge R., Adler R., Alfieri L., Kull D., Lindsay F., Imperiali O., Pappenberger F., Rudari R., Salamon P., Villars N., Wyjad K. (2015) JOINING FORCES IN A GLOBAL FLOOD PARTNERSHIP, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society n. 5, pp. ES97-ES100. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00147.1
- Nobert Sebastien, Krieger Kristian, Pappenberger Florian (2015) Understanding the roles of modernity, science, and risk in shaping flood management, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Water n. 3, pp. 245-258. DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1075
- Nobert S., Krieger K., Pappenberger F. (2015) Understanding the roles of modernity, science, and risk in shaping flood management (vol 2, pg 245, 2015), Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Water n. 5, pp. 593. DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1095
2014
- Pagano Thomas C., Wood Andrew W., Ramos Maria-Helena, Cloke Hannah L., Pappenberger Florian, Clark Martyn P., Cranston Michael, Kavetski Dmitri, Mathevet Thibault, Sorooshian Soroosh, Verkade Jan S. (2014) Challenges of Operational River Forecasting, Journal of Hydrometeorology n. 4, pp. 1692-1707. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-13-0188.1
- Ye J., He Y., Pappenberger F., Cloke H. L., Manful D. Y., Li Z. (2014) Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society n. 682, pp. 1615-1628. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2243
- Alfieri Lorenzo, Pappenberger Florian, Wetterhall Fredrik, Haiden Thomas, Richardson David, Salamon Peter (2014) Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, Journal of Hydrology, pp. 913-922.
- Naumann G., Dutra E., Barbosa P., Pappenberger F., Wetterhall F., Vogt J. V. (2014) Comparison of drought indicators derived from multiple data sets over Africa, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 5, pp. 1625-1640. DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-1625-2014
- Bogner Konrad, Meissner Dennis, Pappenberger Florian, Salamon Peter (2014) Correction of model and forecast errors and the estimation of the predictive uncertainty of a probabilistic flood forecasting system, Hydrologie Und Wasserbewirtschaftung n. 2, pp. 73-75. DOI: 10.5675/HyWa_2014,2_2
- Trambauer P., Dutra E., Maskey S., Werner M., Pappenberger F., van Beek L. P. H., Uhlenbrook S. (2014) Comparison of different evaporation estimates over the African continent, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences n. 1, pp. 193-212. DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-193-2014
- Alfieri Lorenzo, Pappenberger Florian, Wetterhall Fredrik, Haiden Thomas, Richardson David, Salamon Peter (2014) Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, Journal of Hydrology, pp. 913-922.
- Bogner K., Meißner D., Pappenberger F., Salamon P. (2014) Correction of model and forecast errors and the estimation of the predictive uncertainty of a probabilisticflood forecasting system | Korrektur von Modell- und Vorhersagefehlern und Abschätzung der prädiktiven Unsicherheit in einem probabilistischen Hochwasservorhersagesystem, Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung n. 2, pp. 73-75. DOI: 10.5675/HyWa-2014,2-2
- Gianpaolo Balsamo, Anna Agusti-Panareda, C. Albergel, Anton Beljaars, Souhail Boussetta, Emanuel Dutra, T. Komori, S.T.K. Lang, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Florian Pappenberger, Patricia de Rosnay, Irina Sandu, Nils Wedi, Antje Weisheimer, Fredrik Wetterhall, Ervin Zsoter (October 2014) Representing the Earth surfaces in the Integrated Forecasting System: Recent advances and future challenges, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 729. DOI: 10.21957/tp28b09ds
- Thomas Haiden, Linus Magnusson, Ivan Tsonevsky, Fredrik Wetterhall, L. Alfieri, Florian Pappenberger, Patricia de Rosnay, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Gianpaolo Balsamo, C. Albergel, Richard Forbes, Timothy Hewson, S. Malardel, David Richardson (June 2014) ECMWF forecast performance during the June 2013 flood in Central Europe, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 723, pp. 34. DOI: 10.21957/4p9ebc2r3