Peer-reviewed publications
For up-to-date information on my publications please visit the links on the site
120-Emerton, R.E., E.M. Stephens, F. Pappenberger, T.C. Pagano, A.H. Weerts, A.W. Wood, P. Salamon, J.D. Brown, N. Hjerdt, C. Donnelly, C.A. Baugh and H.L. Cloke, 2016: Continental and Global Scale Flood Forecasting Systems, WIREs Water, in press.
119-Revilla-Romero, B., Hirpa, F.A., Pozo, J.T.D., Salamon, P., Brakenridge, R., Pappenberger, F. and De Groeve, T., 2015. On the Use of Global Flood Forecasts and Satellite-Derived Inundation Maps for Flood Monitoring in Data-Sparse Regions. Remote Sensing, 7(11), pp.15702-15728.
118-Stephens, E., Day, J.J., Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H., 2015. Precipitation and floodiness. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(23).
117-Orth, R., Dutra, E. and Pappenberger, F., 2016. Improving weather predictability by including land-surface model parameter uncertainty. Monthly Weather Review, (2016).
116- Hirpa, F. A., Salamon, P., Alfieri, L., Thielen-del Pozo, J., Zsoter, E., & Pappenberger, F. (2016). The effect of reference climatology on global flood forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology, (2016).
115-Kauffeldt, A., Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger F., Salamon, P., Thielen, J., 2016, Technical review of large-scale hydrological models for implementation in operational flood forecasting schemes on continental level, Environmental Modelling & Software, 75, 68–76 [pdf]
114- Giustarini, L., Chini, M., Hostache, R., Pappenberger, F., Matgen, P., 2015, Flood Hazard Mapping Combining Hydrodynamic Modeling and Multi Annual Remote Sensing data. Remote Sensing , 7, 14200-14226 [pdf]
113- MacLeod, D. A., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A., 2015, Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1002/qj.2631
112- Crochemore, L., Ramos, M.-H., Pappenberger, F., van Andel, S.J., Wood, A.W., 2015. An experiment on risk-based decision-making in water management using monthly probabilistic forecasts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00270.1 [pdf]
111- Balsamo, G., Albergel, C., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H., Dee, D., Dutra, E., Munoz-Sabater, J., Pappenberger, F., de Rosnay, P., Stockdale, T., Vitart, F., 2015. ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19, 389-407. [pdf]
110- Beven, K., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Lamb, R., Hunter, N., 2015. Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface. Science China-Earth Sciences 58, 25-35. [pdf]
109- De Groeve, T., Thielen-del Pozo, J., Brakenridge, R., Adler, R., Alfieri, L., Kull, D., Lindsay, F., Imperiali, O., Pappenberger, F., Rudari, R., Salamon, P., Villars, N., Wyjad, K., 2015. Joining forces in a global flood partnership. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96, ES97-ES100. [pdf]
108- Field, R.D., Spessa, A.C., Aziz, N.A., Camia, A., Cantin, A., Carr, R., de Groot, W.J., Dowdy, A.J., Flannigan, M.D., Manomaiphiboon, K., Pappenberger, F., Tanpipat, V., Wang, X., 2015. Development of a Global Fire Weather Database. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, 1407-1423. [pdf]
107- Kauffeldt, A., Halldin, S., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Xu, C.Y., Cloke, H.L., 2015. Imbalanced land surface water budgets in a numerical weather prediction system. Geophysical Research Letters 42, 4411-4417. [pdf]
106- Lavaysse, C., Vogt, J., Pappenberger, F., 2015. Early warning of drought in Europe using the monthly ensemble system from ECMWF. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19, 3273-3286. [pdf]
105- Nobert, S., Krieger, K. and Pappenberger, F., 2015, Understanding the roles of modernity, science, and risk in shaping flood management. WIREs Water, 2: 245–258. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1075 [pdf]
104- Pappenberger, F., Jendritzky, G., Staiger, H., Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Richardson, D.S., Cloke, H.L., 2015a. Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). International Journal of Biometeorology 59, 311-323.
103- Pappenberger, F., Ramos, M.H., Cloke, H.L., Wetterhall, F., Alfieri, L., Bogner, K., Mueller, A., Salamon, P., 2015b. How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in hydrological ensemble prediction. Journal of Hydrology 522, 697-713.
102- Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H.L., Parker, D.J., Wetterhall, F., Richardson, D.S., Thielen, J., 2015c. The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe. Environmental Science & Policy 51, 278-291.
101- Spessa, A.C., Field, R.D., Pappenberger, F., Langner, A., Englhart, S., Weber, U., Stockdale, T., Siegert, F., Kaiser, J.W., Moore, J., 2015. Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, 429-442.
100- Thiemig, V., Bisselink, B., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., 2015. A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19, 3365-3385.
99- Wetterhall, F., Winsemius, H.C., Dutra, E., Werner, M., Pappenberger, F., 2015a. Corrigendum to "Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2577-2586, 2015. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19, 2637.
98- Wetterhall, F., Winsemius, H.C., Dutra, E., Werner, M., Pappenberger, F., 2015b. Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19, 2637.
97- Zsoter, E., Pappenberger, F., Richardson, D., 2015. Sensitivity of model climate to sampling configurations and the impact on the Extreme Forecast Index. Meteorological Applications 22, 236-247.
96- Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Haiden, T., Richardson, D., Salamon, P., 2014a. Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe. Journal of Hydrology 517, 913-922.
95- Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., 2014b. The extreme runoff index for flood early warning in Europe. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14, 1505-1515.
94- Bogner, K., Meißner, D., Pappenberger, F., Salamon, P., 2014. Correction of model and forecast errors and the estimation of the predictive uncertainty of a probabilistic flood forecasting system. Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung 58, 73-75.
93- Dale, M., Wicks, J., Mylne, K., Pappenberger, F., Laeger, S., Taylor, S., 2014. Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: An innovative risk-based approach. Natural Hazards 70, 159-172.
92- Dutra, E., Wetterhall, F., Di Giuseppe, F., Naumann, G., Barbosa, P., Vogt, J., Pozzi, W., Pappenberger, F., 2014a. Global meteorological drought - Part 1: Probabilistic monitoring. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, 2657-2667.
91- Dutra, E., Pozzi, W., Wetterhall, F., Di Giuseppe, F., Magnusson, L., Naumann, G., Barbosa, P., Vogt, J., Pappenberger, F., 2014b. Global meteorological drought - Part 2: Seasonal forecasts. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, 2669-2678.
90- Hemri, S., Scheuerer, M., Pappenberger, F., Bogner, K., Haiden, T., 2014. Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters 41, 9197-9205.
89- Lavers, D.A., Pappenberger, F., Zsoter, E., 2014. Extending medium-range predictability of extreme hydrological events in Europe. Nature Communications 5.
88- Mwangi, E., Wetterhall, F., Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Pappenberger, F., 2014. Forecasting droughts in East Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, 611-620.
87- Naumann, G., Dutra, E., Barbosa, P., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Vogt, J.V., 2014. Comparison of drought indicators derived from multiple data sets over Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, 1625-1640.
86- Pagano, T.C., Wood, A.W., Ramos, M.-H., Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., Clark, M.P., Cranston, M., Kavetski, D., Mathevet, T., Sorooshian, S., Verkade, J.S., 2014. Challenges of Operational River Forecasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology 15, 1692-1707.
85- Peng, Z., Wang, Q.J., Bennett, J.C., Schepen, A., Pappenberger, F., Pokhrel, P., Wang, Z., 2014. Statistical calibration and bridging of ECMWF System4 outputs for forecasting seasonal precipitation over China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119, 7116-7135.
84- Sampson, C.C., Fewtrell, T.J., O'Loughlin, F., Pappenberger, F., Bates, P.B., Freer, J.E., Cloke, H.L., 2014. The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, 2305-2324.
83- Trambauer, P., Dutra, E., Maskey, S., Werner, M., Pappenberger, F., van Beek, L.P.H., Uhlenbrook, S., 2014a. Comparison of different evaporation estimates over the African continent. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, 193-212.
82- Trambauer, P., Maskey, S., Werner, M., Pappenberger, F., van Beek, L.P.H., Uhlenbrook, S., 2014b. Identification and simulation of space-time variability of past hydrological drought events in the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, 2925-2942.
81- Winsemius, H.C., Dutra, E., Engelbrecht, F.A., Archer Van Garderen, E., Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., Werner, M.G.F., 2014. The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate in southern Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, 1525-1538.
80- Ye, J., He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H.L., Manful, D.Y., Li, Z., 2014. Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 140, 1615-1628.
79- Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., Pappenberger, F., 2013. GloFAS-global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17, 1161-1175.
78- Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., van Andel, S.J., Schaake, J., Thielen, J., Ramos, M.H., 2013a. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Hydrological Processes 27, 1-4.
77- Cloke, H.L., Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Freer, J.E., Pappenberger, F., 2013b. Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139, 282-297.
76- Demeritt, D., Nobert, S., Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., 2013. The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management. Hydrological Processes 27, 147-157.
75- Dobler, C., Pappenberger, F., 2013. Global sensitivity analyses for a complex hydrological model applied in an Alpine watershed. Hydrological Processes 27, 3922-3940.
74- Dutra, E., Magnusson, L., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H.L., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S., Pappenberger, F., 2013a. The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa in ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products. International Journal of Climatology 33, 1720-1729.
73- Dutra, E., Diamantakis, M., Tsonevsky, I., Zsoter, E., Wetterhall, F., Stockdale, T., Richardson, D., Pappenberger, F., 2013b. The extreme forecast index at the seasonal scale. Atmospheric Science Letters 14, 256-262.
72- Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., 2013c. Seasonal forecasts of droughts in African basins using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17, 2359-2373.
71- He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Manful, D., Cloke, H., Bates, P., Wetterhall, F., Parkes, B., 2013. Flood Inundation Dynamics and Socioeconomic Vulnerability under Environmental Change, Climate Vulnerability: Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources, pp. 241-255.
70- Pappenberger, F., Brown, J.D., 2013. HP today: on the pursuit of (im)perfection in flood forecasting. Hydrological Processes 27, 162-163.
69- Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Dutra, E., Di Giuseppe, F., Bogner, K., Alfieri, L., Cloke, H.L., 2013a, Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale, in Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology 359, Boegh, E., Blyth, E., Hannah, D.M., Hisdal, H., Kunstmann, H., Su, B., Yilmaz, K.K. (ed) , (IAHS Publ. 359, 2013) 3-10.
68- Pappenberger, F., Stephens, E., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Demeritt, D., van Andel, S.J., Wetterhall, F., Alfieri, L., 2013b. Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: Expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication. Hydrological Processes 27, 132-146.
67- Parkes, B.L., Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., He, Y., Malamud, B.D., Cloke, H.L., 2013a. Assessment of a 1-hour gridded precipitation dataset to drive a hydrological model: a case study of the summer 2007 floods in the Upper Severn, UK. Hydrology Research 44, 89-105.
66- Parkes, B.L., Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., Neal, J., Demeritt, D., 2013b. Reducing Inconsistencies in Point Observations of Maximum Flood Inundation Level. Earth Interactions 17.
65- Pozzi, W., Sheffield, J., Stefanski, R., Cripe, D., Pulwarty, R., Vogt, J.V., Heim Jr, R.R., Brewer, M.J., Svoboda, M., Westerhoff, R., Van Dijk, A.I.J.M., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Pappenberger, F., Werner, M., Dutra, E., Wetterhall, F., Wagner, W., Schubert, S., Mo, K., Nicholson, M., Bettio, L., Nunez, L., Van Beek, R., Bierkens, M., De Goncalves, L.G.G., De Mattos, J.G.Z., Lawford, R., 2013. Toward global drought early warning capability: Expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for monitoring and forecasting. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94, 776-785.
64- Ramos, M. H., van Andel, S. J., and Pappenberger, F.: Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 2219-2232, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013, 2013.
63- Schumann, G.J.P., Neal, J.C., Voisin, N., Andreadis, K.M., Pappenberger, F., Phanthuwongpakdee, N., Hall, A.C., Bates, P.D., 2013. A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model. Water Resources Research 49, 6248-6257.
62- Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., Alfieri, L., Cloke, H.L., Thielen-del Pozo, J., Balabanova, S., Danhelka, J., Vogelbacher, A., Salamon, P., Carrasco, I., Cabrera-Tordera, A.J., Corzo-Toscano, M., Garcia-Padilla, M., Garcia-Sanchez, R.J., Ardilouze, C., Jurela, S., Terek, B., Csik, A., Casey, J., Stankunavicius, G., Ceres, V., Sprokkereef, E., Stam, J., Anghel, E., Vladikovic, D., Eklund, C.A., Hjerdt, N., Djerv, H., Holmberg, F., Nilsson, J., Nystrom, K., Susnik, M., Hazlinger, M., Holubecka, M., 2013. HESS Opinions "Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts". Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17, 4389-4399.
61- Alfieri, L., Thielen, J., Pappenberger, F., 2012a. Ensemble hydro-meteorological simulation for flash flood early detection in southern Switzerland. Journal of Hydrology 424-425, 143-153.
60- Beven, K. J., and H. L. Cloke, 2012, Comment on ''Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water'' by Eric F. Wood et al., Water Resources Research, 48, W01801, doi:10.1029/ 2011WR010982.
59- Bogner, K., Pappenberger, F., and Cloke, H. L., 2012. Technical Note: The normal quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 1085-1094, doi:10.5194/hess-16-1085-2012,
58- Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Thielen, J., 2012b. Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe. Environmental Science & Policy 21, 35-49.
57- Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H.L., 2012. Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16, 4143-4156.
56- Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., He, Y., Freer, J., Cloke, H.L., 2012. Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 19, 623-633.
55- Balsamo, G., Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Viterbo, P., van den Hurk, B., 2011. A revised land hydrology in the ECMWF model: a step towards daily water flux prediction in a fully-closed water cycle. Hydrological Processes 25, 1046-1054.
54- Bao, H.J., Zhao, L.N., He, Y., Li, Z.J., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., Manful, D., 2011. Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast. Advances in Geosciences 29, 61-67.
53- Bogner, K., Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., De Roo, A., Thielen, J., 2011. Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the Upper Danube Catchment. International Journal of River Basin Management 10, 1-12.
52- He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Thielen-Del Pozo, J., Weerts, A., Ramos, M.H., Bruen, M., 2011. Preface Towards practical applications in ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting. Advances in Geosciences 29, 119-121.
51- Pappenberger, F., Bogner, K., Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H.L., Thielen, J., 2011a. Forecast convergence score: A forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems. Advances in Geosciences 29, 27-32.
50- Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Del Medico, M., 2011b. The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: Analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System. Hydrological Processes 25, 1091-1113.
49- Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L., Persson, A., and Demeritt, D., 2011c, HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 2391-2400, doi:10.5194/hess-15-2391-2011, 2011
48- Roo, A.D., Thielen, J., Salamon, P., Bogner, K., Nobert, S., Cloke, H., Demeritt, D., Younis, J., Kalas, M., Bódis, K., Muraro, D., Pappenberger, F., 2011. Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS). International Journal of Digital Earth 4, 77-90.
47- Voisin, N., Pappenberger, F., Lettenmaier, D.P., Buizza, R., Schaake, J.C., 2011. Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River basin. Weather and Forecasting 26, 425-446.
46- Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., 2011. Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting. Advances in Geosciences 29, 21-25.
45- Bogner, K.; Pappenberger, F. Multiscale error analysis, correction, and predictive uncertainty estimation in a flood forecasting system, 2010, Water Resources Research, 47(7), W07524 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009137
44- Cloke, H.L., Jeffers, C., Wetterhall, F., Byrne, T., Lowe, J., Pappenberger, F., 2010. Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment, UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD. Hydrological Processes 24, 3476-3489.
43- Demeritt, D., Nobert, S., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., 2010. Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting. Meteorological Applications 17, 209-222.
42- He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Bao, H., Cloke, H., Li, Z., Pappenberger, F., Hu, Y., Manful, D., Huang, Y., 2010. Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: A case study. Atmospheric Science Letters 11, 132-138.
41- McMillan, H., Freer, J., Pappenberger, F., Krueger, T., Clark, M., 2010. Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall-runoff model calibration and discharge predictions. Hydrological Processes 24, 1270-1284.
40- Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H.L., Balsamo, G., Ngo-Duc, T., Oki, T., 2010. Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system. International Journal of Climatology 30, 2155-2174.
39- Ramos, M., Mathevet, T., Thielen, J., Pappenberger, F., 2010. Communicating uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts: Mission impossible? Meteorological Applications 17, 223-235.
38- Schaake, J., Pailleux, J., Thielen, J., Arritt, R., Hamill, T., Luo, L., Martin, E., McCollor, D., Pappenberger, F., 2010. Summary of recommendations of the first workshop on Postprocessing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Applications held at Meteo-France, Toulouse, France, 15-18 June 2009. Atmospheric Science Letters 11, 59-63.
37- Thiemig, V., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Gadain, H., de Roo, A., Bodis, K., Del Medico, M., Muthusi, F., 2010. Ensemble flood forecasting in Africa: A feasibility study in the Juba-Shabelle river basin. Atmospheric Science Letters 11, 123-131.
36- Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., 2009, Ensemble Flood Forecasting: a review, Journal of Hydrology, 375(3-4), 613-626
35- Neal, J., Schumann, G., Bates, P., Buytaert, W., Matgen, P., Pappenberger, F., 2009. A data assimilation approach to discharge estimation from space. Hydrological Processes 23, 3641-3649.
34- Pappenberger, F ., Buizza, R., Bodis, K. and Ghelli, A., 2009 The skill of probabilistic forecasts under observational uncertainties within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation framework for hydrological applications. Journal of Hydrometerology, 10(3): 807:81
33- Pappenberger, F., Buizza, R., 2009. The skill of ECMWF precipitation and temperature predictions in the Danube basin as forcings of hydrological models. Weather and Forecasting 24, 749-766.
32- Schumann, G., Bates, P.D., Horritt, M.S., Matgen, P., Pappenberger, F., 2009. Progress in integration of remote sensing-derived flood extent and stage data and hydraulic models. Reviews of Geophysics 47.
31- Thielen, J., Bogner, K., Pappenberger F., Kalas, M., del Medico, M., de Roo, A., 2009, Monthly-,medium- and short range flood warning: testing the limits of predictability, Meteorological Applications, 16 (1), 77-90
30- He, H.Y., Cloke, H.L., Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger F., Freer, J., Wilson, M., 2009, Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions, Meteorological Applications, 16(1), 91-101
29- Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., 2008. Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: An approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures. Meteorological Applications 15, 181-197.
28- Cloke, H.L., Pappenberger, F., Renaud, J.P., 2008. Multi-Method Global Sensitivity Analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes. Hydrological Processes 22, 1660-1674.
27- Hughes, D., Greenwood, P., Blair, G., Coulson, G., Grace, P., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P., Beven, K., 2008. An experiment with reflective middleware to support grid-based flood monitoring. Concurrency Computation Practice and Experience 20, 1303-1316.
26- Pappenberger, F., Scipal, K., Buizza, R., 2008a. Hydrological aspects of meteorological verification. Atmospheric Science Letters 9, 43-52.
25- Pappenberger, F., Beven, K.J., Ratto, M., Matgen, P., 2008b. Multi-method global sensitivity analysis of flood inundation models. Advances in Water Resources 31, 1-14.
24- Pappenberger, F., Bartholmes, J., Thielen, J., Cloke, H.L., Buizza, R., de Roo, A., 2008c. New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions. Geophysical Research Letters 35.
23- Romanowicz, R.J., Young, P.C., Beven, K.J., Pappenberger, F., 2008. A data based mechanistic approach to nonlinear flood routing and adaptive flood level forecasting. Advances in Water Resources 31, 1048-1056.
22- Schumann, G., Matgen, P., Pappenberger, F., 2008a. Conditioning Water Stages From Satellite Imagery on Uncertain Data Points. Ieee Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters 5, 810-813.
21- Schumann, G., Pappenberger, F., Matgen, P., 2008b. Estimating uncertainty associated with water stages from a single SAR image. Advances in Water Resources 31, 1038-1047.
20- Schumann, G., Cutler, M., Black, A., Matgen, P., Pfister, L., Hoffmann, L., Pappenberger, F., 2008c. Evaluating uncertain flood inundation predictions with uncertain remotely sensed water stages. International Journal of River Basin Management 6, 187-199.
19- Demeritt, D., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J., Ramos, M.H., 2007. Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting. Environmental Hazards 7, 115-127.
18- Matgen, P., Schumann, G., Pappenberger, F., Pfister, L., 2007. Sequential assimilation of remotely sensed water stages in flood inundation models, IAHS-AISH Publication, 316 ed, pp. 78-88.
17- Pappenberger, F., Frodsham, K., Beven, K., Romanowicz, R., Matgen, P., 2007a. Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11, 739-752.
16- Pappenberger, F., Beven, K., Frodsham, K., Romanowicz, R., Matgen, P., 2007b. Grasping the unavoidable subjectivity in calibration of flood inundation models: A vulnerability weighted approach. Journal of Hydrology 333, 275-287.
15- Ratto, M., Young, P.C., Romanowicz, R., Pappenberger, F., Saltelli, A., Pagano, A., 2007. Uncertainty, sensitivity analysis and the role of data based mechanistic modeling in hydrology. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11, 1249-1266.
14- Schumann, G., Matgen, P., Hoffmann, L., Hostache, R., Pappenberger, F., Pfister, L., 2007a. Deriving distributed roughness values from satellite radar data for flood inundation modelling. Journal of Hydrology 344, 96-111.
13- Schumann, G., Hostache, R., Puech, C., Hoffmann, L., Matgen, P., Pappenberger, F., Pfister, L., 2007b. High-resolution 3-D flood information from radar imagery for flood hazard management. Ieee Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 45, 1715-1725.
12- Weichel, T., Pappenberger, F., Schulz, K., 2007. Sensitivity and uncertainty in flood inundation modelling - Concept of an analysis framework. Advances in Geosciences 11, 31-36.
11- Mo, X.G., Pappenberger, F., Beven, K., Liu, S.X., De Roo, A., Lin, Z.H., 2006. Parameter conditioning and prediction uncertainties of the LISFLOOD-WB distributed hydrological model. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques 51, 45-65.
10- Pappenberger, F., Harvey, H., Beven, K., Hall, J., Meadowcroft, I., 2006a. Decision tree for choosing an uncertainty analysis methodology: a wiki experiment. Hydrological Processes 20, 3793-3798.
9- Pappenberger, F., Beven, K.J., 2006. Ignorance is bliss: Or seven reasons not to use uncertainty analysis. Water Resources Research 42.
8- Pappenberger, F., Matgen, P., Beven, K.J., Henry, J.-B., Pfister, L., Fraipont de, P., 2006b. Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions. Advances in Water Resources 29, 1430-1449.
7- Pappenberger, F., Iorgulescu, I., Beven, K.J., 2006c. Sensitivity analysis based on regional splits and regression trees (SARS-RT). Environmental Modelling & Software 21, 976-990.
6- Pappenberger, F., Beven, K.J., Hunter, N.M., Bates, P.D., Gouweleeuw, B.T., Thielen, J., de Roo, A.P.J., 2005a. Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 9, 381-393.
5- Pappenberger, F., Beven, K., Horritt, M., Blazkova, S., 2005b. Uncertainty in the calibration of effective roughness parameters in HEC-RAS using inundation and downstream level observations. Journal of Hydrology 302, 46-69.
4- Pappenberger, F., Beven, K.J., 2004. Functional classification and evaluation of hydrographs based on Multicomponent Mapping (Mx). International Journal of River Basin Management 2, 89-100.
3- Pappenberger, F., Beven, K., De Roo, A., Thielen, J., Gouweleeuw, B., 2004. Uncertainty analysis of the rainfall runoff model LisFlood within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). International Journal of River Basin Management 2, 123-133.
2- Beven, K., Pappenberger, F., 2003. Towards the hydraulics of the hydroinformatics era - By M.B. Abbott, V.M. Babovic and J.A. Cunge, Journal of Hydraulic Research, Volume 39, 2001, Issue 4, pp. 339-349 - Discussion. Journal of Hydraulic Research 41, 331-333.
1- de Roo, A.P.J., Gouweleeuw, B., Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J., Bongioannini‐Cerlini, P., Todini, E., Bates, P.D., Horritt, M., Hunter, N., Beven, K., Pappenberger, F., Heise, E., Rivin, G., Hils, M., Hollingsworth, A., Holst, B., Kwadijk, J., Reggiani, P., Van Dijk, M., Sattler, K., Sprokkereef, E., 2003. Development of a European flood forecasting system. International Journal of River Basin Management 1, 49-59.
Other publications
49-Kiczko, A., Romanowicz, R.J., Osuch, M. and Pappenberger, F., 2015. Adaptation of the integrated catchment system to on-line assimilation of ECMWF forecasts. In Stochastic Flood Forecasting System (pp. 173-186). Springer International Publishing.
48 - Bates, P.D., Pappenberger, F., Romanowicz, R.J., , 2014. Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Modelling. Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management, Beven, K., Hall, J. (ed). 232-269. doi: 10.1142/9781848162716_0010 [pdf]
47- Zsoter, W., Mladek, R., Pappenberger, F., Richardson, D., Hopsch, S., Keller, J., Swinbank, R., Arbogast, P., Joly, B., 2015, GEOWOW project boosts access to Earth observation data, ECMWF Newsletter, No. 145 pdf
46- MacLeod, D.A. and H.L. Cloke and F. Pappenberger and A. Weisheimer, 2015, Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land Institution, ECMWF Technical Memoranda, Number 761
45- Kiczko, A., Romanowicz, R.J., Osuch, M., Pappenberger, F., 2015. Adaptation of the integrated catchment system to on-line assimilation of ECMWF forecasts, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, pp. 173-186.
44- Balsamo, G., Agustì-Panareda, A., Albergel, C., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Dutra, E.,Komori, T., Lang, S., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Pappenberger, F., de Rosnay, P., Sandu, I., Wedi, N., Weisheimer, A., Wetterhall, F., Zsoter, E., 2014 Representing the Earth surfaces in the Integrated Forecasting System: Recent advances and future challenges, ECMWF Technical Memoranda, Number 729
43- Haiden, T., Magnusson, L.,Tsonevsky, I., Wetterhall, F., Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., de Rosnay, P., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Balsamo, G., Albergel, C., Forbes, R., Hewson, T., Malardel, S., Richardson D., ECMWF forecast performance during the June 2013 flood in Central Europe, ECMWF Technical Memoranda, Number 723
42- Chini, M., Giustarini, L., Matgen, P., Hostache, R., Pappenberger, F., Bally, P., 2014. Flood hazard mapping combining high resolution multi-temporal SAR data and coarse resolution global hydrodynamic modelling, International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), pp. 2394-2396.
41- Pappenberger, F. and Ratto, M., 2014, Sensitivity Analysis. In: K. Beven and J. Hall (Editors), Flood Forecasting. Wiley & Co, New York.
40- Bates, P.D., Pappenberger, F., Romanowicz, R., 2014, Uncertainty and risk in flood inundation modelling In: K. Beven and J. Hall (Editors), Flood Forecasting. Wiley & Co, New York. pp. 232-269
39- Haiden, T., L. Magnusson, I. Tsonevsky, F. Wetterhall, L. Alfieri, F. Pappenberger, P. de Rosnay, J. Muñoz-Sabater, G. Balsamo, C. Albergel, R. Forbes, T. Hewson, S. Malardel, D. Richardson, Title ECMWF forecast performance during the June 2013 flood in Central Europe, Technical Memorand 723
38- Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Thiemig, V., 2013. Operational European Flood Forecasting, Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity: Second Edition, J. Wainwright and M. Mulligan (eds), pp. 415-434.
37- Dale, M., Ji, Y., Wicks, J., Mylne, K., Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H.L. Applying probabilistic flood forecasting in flood incident management Technical Report - refined decision-support framework and methods, Project: SC090032 [Technical Report] [Summary] [Guidance]
36- Dutra, E., Diamantakis, M., Tsonevsky, I., Zsoter, E., Wetterhall, F., Stockdale, T., Richardson, D., Pappenberger, F., The extreme forecast index applied to seasonal forecasts, ECMWF Technical Memoranda, Number 703
35- He, Y., Pappenberger, F., Manful, D., Cloke, H., Bates, P., Wetterhall, F., Parkes, B., 2013. 5.16 - Flood Inundation Dynamics and Socioeconomic Vulnerability under Environmental Change, In: Pielke, R.A. (Ed.), Climate Vulnerability. Academic Press, Oxford, pp. 241-255.
34- Imani Y., Lahlou O., Dutra, E., Pappenberger F., Nyabeze W., Dlamini, L., Vermooten, S., Werner, M., Love, D., Ncube, S., Trambauer, P., Maskey, S., Fournet, S., DEWFORA Newsletter issue 02/2012
33- Cloke, H., Weisheimer, A., Pappenberger, F., 2011, Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simulations with the ECMWF land surface scheme, in Proceedings of the ECMWF/WMO/WCRP workshop on "Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Models". 20-24 June 2011 at ECMWF, Reading, UK
32- Thielen, J., Pappenberger, F., Salamon, P., Bogner, K., Burek, P., de Roo, A., 2011, State of the Art of Flood Forecasting From Deterministic to Probabilistic Approaches, in Flood Hazards, Impacts and Responses for the Built Environment, Edited by David G . Proverbs, CRC Press 2011, Pages 9–24. DOI: 10.1201/b11050-4
31- Blažková, S., Beven, K.J., Skaugen, T., Pappenberger, F. & Werner M.. (2010) Techniques for extreme rainfall and flood runoff estimation, Chapter 2.3.3 In: Servat E. and Demuth S. (Eds.) FRIEND - a global perspective 2006-2009. UNESCO - International Hydrological Programme IV, 19-23
30- Pappenberger, F., Zappa, M. Smith, P.J. Ramos, M.H. Cloke, H.L., He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Rossa, A., Schaake, J., Thielen, J. , 2010, Reply to HESS Opinions “Ensemble, uncertainty and flood prediction” by Dance, S. and Zou, Q.P., Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion , 7, 3591-3611
29- Vandenberghe, V., Ratto, M., and Pappenberger, F., 2010, Review of sensitivity analysis methods, 2010, Review of sensitivity analysis methods, in Modelling Aspects of Water Framework Directive Implementation, Vanrolleghem, P.A. (ed) ISBN: 978184339223, 191-270, 260pp
28- Blazkova, S.D., Beven, K.J., Skaugen, T., Pappenberger, F., Lamb, R., 2010, Techniques for Extreme Rainfall and Flood Runoff Estimation in FRIEND Global Report 2006-2009 - EURO FRIEND (editor: Lanen V.P.)
27- Cloke, H.L., Thielen, J., Pappenberger, F., Nobert, S., Salamon, P., Buizza, R., Bálint, G., Edlund, C., Koistinen, A., de Saint-Aubin, C., Viel, C., Sprokkereef, E. Progress in the implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in Europe for operational flood forecasting, ECMWF Newsletter No 121, p 20-24
26- Buizza, R., Pappenberger, F., Salamon, P., Thielen, J., de Roo, A., EPS/EFAS probabilistic flood prediction for Northern Italy: the case of 30 April 2009, ECMWF Newsletter No 120, p 10-16
25- Pappenberger, F. 2009, River routing models to support NWP evaluation, in ECMWF / GLASS Workshop on Land Surface Modelling and Data Assimilation and the implications for predictability, 9-12 November 2009, European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts
24- Cloke, H.L, and Pappenberger F., 2008, Operational Flood forecasting: A review of ensemble techniques, European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts , Reading.
23- Ramos, M.H., Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., Utilisation de la prevision meteprpepgique d’ensemble pour la prevision hydrologique operationnelle et l’alerte aux crues, Colloque SHF-191 CST, Lyon, 18-19 November 2008, 191-199
22- Romanowicz, R., Kiczko, A., Pappenberger, F., 2008, A state dependent nonlinear approach to flood forecasting, Publication of the Institute of Geophysics, Poland, E7(401)
21- Pappenberger, F. , Bartholmes, J. and Thielen, J., 2008. TIGGE: Medium Range multi model weather forecast ensembles in Flood Forecasting (A Case Study), European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading.
20- Pappenberger, F. , Buizza, R., 2008, The value of ensemble predictions for hydrological applications, European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading.
19- Pappenberger, F. , 2008, The use of multiple NWPs in hydrological modelling, In: Modelling Floods and Drougths uncertainty for Water Management Resources, Blazkova S. (ed.)
18- Pappenberger, F., Buizza, R., 2008, Comparison of catchment and grid based model evaluation of precipitation for hydrological applications on the example of the July/August 2002 flood in the Danube, 3 rd HEPEX workshop, Ispra, Italy
17- Pappenberger, F. , Buizza, R., 2008, The skill of ECMWF precipitation and temperature predictions in the Danube basin as forcings of hydrological models, ECMWF Technical Memoranda, Number 558
16- Pappenberger, F., Bartholmes J, Thielen, J., Anghel, E., TIGGE: Medium range multi model weather forecast ensembles in flood forecasting (a case study), ECMWF Technical Memoranda, Number 557
15- Buizza, R., Pappenberger F., et al., 2007. EURORISK/PREVIEW: the technical quality, functional quality and forecast value of meteorological and hydrological forecasts, European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading.
14- Palmer, T.N., Buizza, R., Leutbecher, M., Hagedorn, R., Jung, T., Rodwell, M., Vitart, F., Berner, J., Hagel, E., Lawrence, A., Pappenberger, F., Park, Y.-Y., von Bremen, L. and Gilmour, I., 2007. The Ensemble Prediction System - Recent and Ongoing Developments, European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading.
13- Pappenberger, F. , Harvey, H., Beven, K. and Hall, J., 2007. Uncertainty Analysis in Environmental Modeling Made Easy. EOS Transactions AGU, 88(3): 26.
12- Hughes, D., Greenwood, P., Coulson, G., Blair, G., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P., Beven, K., 2006a. GridStix: Supporting flood prediction using embedded hardware and next generation grid middleware, Proceedings - WoWMoM 2006: 2006 International Symposium on a World of Wireless, Mobile and Multimedia Networks, pp. 621-626.
11- Hughes, D., Greenwood, P., Blair, G., Coulson, G., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P., Beven, K., Cox, S.J., 2006b. An intelligent and adaptable grid-based flood monitoring and warning system. Proceedings of the UK e-Science All Hands Meeting 2006, 53-60.
10- Hughes, D., Greenwood, P., Porter, B., Grace, P., Coulson, G., Blair, G., Taiani, F., Pappenberger, F., Smith, P., Beven, K., 2006c. Using grid technologies to optimise a wireless sensor network for flood management, SenSys'06: Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Embedded Networked Sensor Systems, pp. 389-390.
9- Pappenberger, F. , 2006. Comment on 'Guidance for uncertainty assessment and communication - Checklist for uncertainty in spatial information & visualising spatial uncertainty' by Visser, H., Petersen, A.c., Beusen, A.H.W., Heuberger, P.S.C. and Jjansen, P.H.M., RIVM/MNP, Report Nr. 55032001/2006, available from http://www.mnp.nl/leidraad. Environment and Planning A.
8- Schulz, K., Weichel, T., Haase, D.,Pappenberger, F., 2006. Möglichkeiten der Fernerkundung für eine verbesserte Hochwasservorhersage. Dresdner Schriften zur Hydrologie 5, TU Dresden, Dresden: 330-336.
7- Weichel, T., Schulz, K., Haase, D., Pappenberger, F., 2006. Moeglichkeiten der Fernerkundung fuer eine verbesserte Hochwasservorhersage, SYNAP, Dresden, Germany.
6- Pappenberger, F., 2006, Cascading Uncertainty in flood forecasting, CHR workshop on ensemble predictions, Bern, Switzerland, 30/31 March 2006
5- Matgen, P., Henry, J.B., Pappenberger, F., Pfister, L., De Fraipont, P., 2005. ASAR derived flood maps for flood propagation model calibration, European Space Agency, (Special Publication) ESA SP, 572 ed, pp. 1627-1632.
4- Beven, K., Romaniwicz, R., Pappenberger, F., Young, P. and Werner, M., 2005. The uncertainty cascade in flood forecasting. In: P. Balbanis, D. Lambroso and P. Samuels (Editors), Advances and implementation of flood forecasting technology, ACTIF, Tromso, Norway, pp. 33.
3- Pappenberger, F. , Harvey, H., Beven, K.J., Hall, J., Romanovicz, R. and Smith, P., 2005. Risk & Uncertainty - Tools and Implementation - Flood Risk Management Research Consortium (download from www.floodrisk.org.uk and www.floodrisk.net), Lancaster University Lancaster
2- Cloke HL, Thielen J, Franchello G, Gouweleeuw B, Kalas M, Van der Knijff J, de Roo A, Pappenberger F (2004) ‘Evaluation of the meteorological inputs to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)’ Proceedings of the International Flood Risk Assessment Conference, Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, 7-8 September 2004, University of Bath, UK.
1- Cloke HL, Demeritt D, Pappenberger F (2004) Risk Communication and the European Flood Alert System. In J Thielen & A de Roo (Eds). 2 nd EFAS Workshop, Ispra, Italy, 10-12 November 2004 (Ispra: Joint Research Centre, European Commission), 32-33
