Florian Pappenberger is Director‑General of the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). He leads ECMWF’s strategy, delivery and partnerships across ECMWF’s Member and Co‑operating States, ensuring that ECMWF continues to provide trusted, high‑quality Earth system products and services that support decision‑making for society, government and industry.
Before becoming Director‑General, Florian served as ECMWF’s Deputy Director‑General and led ECMWF’s forecasting operations and service development. In these roles, he was responsible for round‑the‑clock global forecasting activities, forecast quality control (verification and diagnostics), and the development of new forecast products and services, strengthening the links between research, operations and user needs.
As Director‑General, Florian’s leadership combines scientific ambition with strong operational discipline. His focus is on sustaining forecast quality and trust while guiding ECMWF through technological change and organisational growth, strengthening collaboration with Member States and partners, maintaining resilience across ECMWF’s multi‑site operations, and ensuring that new capabilities are delivered reliably and transparently.
He has been closely involved in major technology transitions at ECMWF, including the migration of operational forecasting systems to the high‑performance computing data centre in Bologna (Italy), supporting continuity of service delivery while modernising infrastructure. A defining theme of his work has been the responsible operational adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning alongside physics‑based numerical modelling, including the development and operational use of ECMWF’s Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS), with rigorous evaluation and clear communication of strengths and limitations.
Florian has also been closely involved in ECMWF’s contributions to major European initiatives, including Copernicus services and the European Union’s Destination Earth (DestinE) initiative, with a focus on strengthening the link between scientific capability, operational delivery and user impact.
Florian Pappenberger joined ECMWF in 2004 and has held a range of scientific and leadership roles within the organisation. He is a hydrologist by training, with a scientific background in probabilistic forecasting and the prediction of weather‑driven natural hazards, including floods and fires.
He played a central role in establishing and operationalising ECMWF’s contributions to the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS), including global and European flood awareness systems and fire danger services, supporting early warning and risk‑informed decision‑making. He later served as Director of Forecasts (2016–2023), Deputy Director‑General (2021–2025), and Director of Forecasts and Services (2024–2025), before becoming Director‑General. In these roles, he led ECMWF’s operational forecasting activities, service development and major organisational and infrastructure transitions, and represented ECMWF in national, European and international fora on scientific, operational and strategic matters.
- 2026
- Hylke Beck, Xuetong Wang, Raied Alharbi, Oscar Baez-Villanueva, Diego Miralles, Jun Ma, Shiqin Xu, Matthew McCabe, Florian Pappenberger, Albert van Dijk, Tim McVicar, Lanka Karthikeyan, Hayley Fowler, Ming Pan, Solomon Gebrechorkos (March 2026) MSWEP V3: Machine Learning-Powered Global Precipitation Estimates at 0.1° Hourly Resolution (1979–Present). DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9714
- Maria Luisa Taccari, Kenza Tazi, Oisín M. Morrison, Andreas Grafberger, Juan Colonese, Corentin Carton de Wiart, Christel Prudhomme, Cinzia Mazzetti, Matthew Chantry, Florian Pappenberger (March 2026) AIFL: A New Global Flood Forecasting Model Trained on CARAVAN. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu26-13650
- Jia Wang, David A. Lavers, Luca Delle Monache, Bruce Ingleby, Minghua Zheng, Xingren Wu, Fred Martin Ralph, Florian Pappenberger (January 2026) Impacts of atmospheric river reconnaissance dropsondes on ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System precipitation forecasts, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.70019
- Karan Ruparell, Kieran M. R. Hunt, Hannah Cloke, Christel Prudhomme, Florian Pappenberger, Matthew Chantry (January 2026) AI-generated ensemble river flow forecasting: Using rollout and an additional noise input to build ensemble forecasts. DOI: 10.22541/essoar.176798041.13131338/v1
- Karan Ruparell, Kieran Hunt, Hannah Cloke, Christel Prudhomme, Florian Pappenberger, Matthew Chantry (March 2026) AI-generated ensemble river flow forecasting: Using rollout and an additional noise input to build ensemble forecasts. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu26-2804
- Hamidreza Mosaffa, Louise Slater, Mohammad J. Tourian, Florian Pappenberger, Michel Wortmann, Hannah Cloke (March 2026) Beyond Static Priors: Unlocking High-Resolution Dynamic River Networks via a SWOT-Driven Machine Learning Pipeline. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu26-3842
- Johannes Flemming, Stephen English, Florian Pappenberger (March 2026) Recent progress and outlook for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu26-21470
- Fatima M. Pillosu, Mariana Claire, Calum Baugh, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhome, Hannah L. Cloke (April 2026) Outrunning flash floods: XGBoost and sparse impact reports deliver global medium-range probabilistic forecasts of flash flood occurrence. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2026-1591
- Fatima M. Pillosu, Mariana Claire, Calum Baugh, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhome, Hannah L. Cloke (April 2026) Supplementary material to "Outrunning flash floods: XGBoost and sparse impact reports deliver global medium-range probabilistic forecasts of flash flood occurrence". DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2026-1591-supplement
- Hamidreza Mosaffa, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhomme, Matthew Chantry, Christoph Rüdiger, Hannah Cloke (April 2026) A GNN routing module is all you need for LSTM Rainfall–Runoff models, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. DOI: 10.5194/hess-30-2079-2026
- A. Shyrokaya, S. Uttarwar, A. Samantaray, F. Pappenberger, G. Di Baldassarre, I. Pechlivanidis, F. Stainoh, B. Majone, G. Messori (April 2026) Seasonal Pre‐Planting Drought Impact‐Based Forecasting of Crop Yield in India, Earth's Future. DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007128
- Karan Ruparell, Kieran M. R. Hunt, Hannah Cloke, Christel Prudhomme, Florian Pappenberger, Matthew Chantry (May 2026) AI-generated ensemble river flow forecasting: Using rollout and an additional noise input to build ensemble forecasts. DOI: 10.22541/essoar.176798041.13131338/v2
- Ather Abbas, Yuan Yang, Ming Pan, Yves Tramblay, Chaopeng Shen, Haoyu Ji, Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Florian Pappenberger, JongCheol Pyo, Dapeng Feng, George Huffman, Phu Nguyen, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Jackson Tan, Hylke E. Beck (June 2026) Comprehensive Global Assessment of 24 Gridded Precipitation Datasets Across 18 428 Catchments Using Hydrological Modeling, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. DOI: 10.5194/hess-30-3399-2026
- Karan Ruparell, Dai Yamazaki, Kieran Hunt, Hannah Cloke, Christel Prudhomme, Florian Pappenberger, Matthew Chantry (June 2026) Do reservoir-influenced gauges need explicit consideration in machine learning models? A case study with Hydra-LSTM. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2026-2909
- Claudia Di Napoli, David A. Lavers, Peter Bechtold, Florian Pappenberger (September 2026) Relief or Aggravation? A 31-Year study of sea-Land Breezes and Their Impacts on Coastal Heat Stress, Earth Systems and Environment. DOI: 10.1007/s41748-025-00917-3
- Maria Luisa Taccari, Kenza Tazi, Oisín M. Morrison, Andreas Grafberger, Juan Colonese, Corentin Carton de Wiart, Christel Prudhomme, Cinzia Mazzetti, Matthew Chantry, Florian Pappenberger (July 2026) AIFL: A global daily streamflow forecasting model using deterministic a LSTM pre-trained on ERA5-land and fine-tuned on IFS, Journal of Hydrology. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136064
- Pidduck E., Modigliani U., Bennett V.L., Venuti F., Pappenberger F., Rabier F., Bennett V. (July 2026) From Licensing to Open Access: Designing a Sustainable Transition in Operational Weather Data, Arxiv. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2605.21673
- Wang X., Alharbi R.S., Baez-Villanueva O.M., Miralles D.G., Ma J., Xu S., McCabe M.F., Pappenberger F., van Dijk A.I.J.M., McVicar T.R., Karthikeyan L., Fowler H.J., Pan M., Gebrechorkos S.H., Beck H.E. (July 2026) MSWEP V3: Machine Learning-Powered Global Precipitation Estimates at 0.1° Hourly Resolution (1979–Present), Arxiv. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2602.01436
- Taccari M.L., Tazi K., Morrison O.M., Grafberger A., Colonese J., de Wiart C.C., Prudhomme C., Mazzetti C., Chantry M., Pappenberger F. (July 2026) AIFL: A Global Daily Streamflow Forecasting Model Using Deterministic LSTM Pre-trained on ERA5-Land and Fine-tuned on IFS, Arxiv. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2602.16579
- Wang K., Mou W., Cai H., Yin C., Li Y., Allan R.P., Beck H., Dai A., Miralles D.G., Ryu D., Pappenberger F. (July 2026) ERA5 overestimates land drying trend from 1980 to 2023 by more than 100%, Science Bulletin. DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2026.01.045
- Nath S., Koros D., Cooper F.C., MacLeod D., Kimani H., Mwai Z., Maswi C., Chanzu B., Teshome A., Tamene B., Kebebe B., Abebe S., Gudoshava M., Amdihun A., Obai I., Ambani M., Arango M., Mason J., Chantry M., Pappenberger F., Weisheimer A., Palmer T. (July 2026) Predicting East Africa’s rainfall extremes with calibrated, hybrid physical and AI systems, Research Square. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8534913/v1
- Pechlivanidis I.G., Afentoulidis S., Di Baldassarre G., Pappenberger F., Salamon P., Uhlenbrook S. (July 2026) How personalized disaster warnings can save lives, Nature Human Behaviour. DOI: 10.1038/s41562-026-02405-8
- 2025
- Marieke Wesselkamp, Matthew Chantry, Maria Kalweit, Ewan Pinnington, Margarita Choulga, Joschka Boedecker, Carsten Dormann, Florian Pappenberger, Gianpaolo Balsamo (January 2025) Partial land surface emulator forecasts ecosystem states at verified horizons. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20863
- Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Sameer Uttarwar, Alok Samantaray, Florian Pappenberger, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Federico Stainoh, Bruno Majone, Gabriele Messori (July 2025) Seasonal Pre-planting Drought Impact-based Forecasting of Crop Yield in India. DOI: 10.22541/essoar.175399470.04915076/v1
- Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Sameer Uttarwar, Alok Samantaray, Florian Pappenberger, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Federico Stainoh, Bruno Majone, Gabriele Messori (August 2025) Seasonal Pre-planting Drought Impact-based Forecasting of Crop Yield in India. DOI: 10.22541/essoar.175399470.04915076/v2
- Ather Abbas, Yuan Yang, Ming Pan, Yves Tramblay, Chaopeng Shen, Haoyu Ji, Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Florian Pappenberger, Jong Cheol Pyo, Dapeng Feng, George Huffman, Phu Nguyen, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Tan Jackson, Hylke E. Beck (January 2025) Comprehensive Global Assessment of 23 Gridded Precipitation Datasets Across 16,295 Catchments Using Hydrological Modeling. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-4194
- Shraddha Gupta, Abhirup Banerjee, Norbert Marwan, David Richardson, Linus Magnusson, Jürgen Kurths, Florian Pappenberger (January 2025) Spatially coherent structure of forecast errors – A complex network approach. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12314
- Ather Abbas, Yuan Yang, Ming Pan, Yves Tramblay, Chaopeng Shen, Haoyu Ji, Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Florian Pappenberger, Jong Cheol Pyo, Dapeng Feng, George Huffman, Phu Nguyen, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Tan Jackson, Hylke E. Beck (January 2025) Supplementary material to "Comprehensive Global Assessment of 23 Gridded Precipitation Datasets Across 16,295 Catchments Using Hydrological Modeling". DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-4194-supplement
- Marieke Wesselkamp, Matthew Chantry, Ewan Pinnington, Margarita Choulga, Souhail Boussetta, Maria Kalweit, Joschka Bödecker, Carsten F. Dormann, Florian Pappenberger, Gianpaolo Balsamo (February 2025) Advances in land surface forecasting: a comparison of LSTM, gradient boosting, and feed-forward neural networks as prognostic state emulators in a case study with ecLand, Geoscientific Model Development. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-18-921-2025
- Andy Wood, Laura Read, Grey Nearing, Juliane Mai, Chris Frans, Martyn Clark, Florian Pappenberger (March 2025) On the advancing frontier of deep learning in hydrology: a hydrologic applications perspective. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-14223
- Hamidreza Mosaffa, Christel Prudhomme, Matthew Chantry, Liz Stephens, Christoph Rüdiger, Florian Pappenberger, Hannah Cloke (March 2025) A Comprehensive Analysis of Graph Neural Networks for River Discharge Prediction: High-Resolution Applications in the Danube Basin. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13016
- Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Sameer Uttarwar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Bruno Majone, Alok Samantaray, Federico Stainoh, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Gabriele Messori (March 2025) Drought impact-based forecasting of crop yield in India. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16546
- Hamidreza Mosaffa, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhomme, Matthew Chantry, Christoph Rüdiger, Hannah Cloke (October 2025) A GNN Routing Module Is All You Need for LSTM Rainfall–Runoff Models. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2025-5008
- Ather Abbas, Yuan Yang, Ming Pan, Yves Tramblay, Chaopeng Shen, Haoyu Ji, Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Florian Pappenberger, JongCheol Pyo, Dapeng Feng, George Huffman, Phu Nguyen, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Tan Jackson, Hylke E. Beck (March 2025) Comprehensive Global Assessment of 23 Gridded PrecipitationDatasets Across 16,295 Catchments Using Hydrological Modeling. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19338
- A Shyrokaya, F Pappenberger, G Messori, I Pechlivanidis, H Cloke, G Di Baldassarre (March 2025) How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe, Environmental Research Letters. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb869
- Gwyneth Matthews, Calum Baugh, Matthew Chantry, Cinzia Mazzetti, Hamidreza Mosaffa, Ewan Pinnington, Nina Raoult, Karan Ruparell, Maria-Luisa Taccari, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhomme (March 2025) A new era of hybrid hydrological forecasting at ECMWF . DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu25-11925
- Claudia Di Napoli, David A. Lavers, Peter Bechtold, Florian Pappenberger (May 2025) Complex winds, complex comfort: the impacts of sea breezes on coastal heat stress. DOI: 10.5194/icuc12-307
- Claudia Di Napoli, Stephan Siemen, Ana Oliveira, Eric A. Kihn, Douglas Rao, Jennifer A.B. Webster, Grazyna Piesiewicz, Florian Pappenberger (May 2025) Urban complexity and digital twins: leveraging machine learning for hyper-local heat stress forecasting. DOI: 10.5194/icuc12-365
- Marieke Wesselkamp, Jakob Albrecht, Ewan Pinnington, William J. Castillo, Florian Pappenberger, Carsten F. Dormann (July 2025) The ecological forecast limit revisited: Potential, absolute and relative system predictability, Methods in Ecology and Evolution. DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.70049
- Irina Sandu, Nils Wedi, Florian Pappenberger (July 2025) Opportunities and Challenges in Weather and Climate Modelling: Experiences from the Destination Earth Initiative. DOI: 10.5194/ems2025-280
- Fatima Pillosu, Mariana Claire, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhomme, Hannah Cloke (July 2025) Outrunning flash floods: improving forecasts for better preparedness. DOI: 10.5194/ems2025-676
- Karan Ruparell, Kieran Hunt, Hannah Cloke, Christel Prudhomme, Florian Pappenberger, Matthew Chantry (July 2025) A Hydrologist’s guide to the CRPS, ECMWF. DOI: 10.21957/16101872b5
- Dasgupta A., Arnal L., Emerton R., Harrigan S., Matthews G., Muhammad A., O'Regan K., Pérez-Ciria T., Valdez E., van Osnabrugge B., Werner M., Buontempo C., Cloke H., Pappenberger F., Pechlivanidis I.G., Prudhomme C., Ramos M.-H., Salamon P. (July 2025) Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop, Journal of Flood Risk Management. DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12880
- Richardson D.S., Cloke H.L., Magnusson L., Majumdar S.J., Methven J.A., Pappenberger F. (July 2025) Skill and Consistency of ECMWF Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis, Weather and Forecasting. DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-24-0115.1
- Lavers D.A., Villarini G., Cloke H.L., Simmons A., Roberts N., Lombardi A., Burgess S.N., Pappenberger F. (July 2025) How bad is the rain? Applying the extreme rain multiplier globally and for climate monitoring activities, Meteorological Applications. DOI: 10.1002/met.70031
- Pechlivanidis I.G., Du Y., Bennett J., Boucher M.-A., Chang A.Y.Y., Crochemore L., Dasgupta A., Baldassarre G.D., Luterbacher J., Pappenberger F., Ramos M.-H., Slater L., Uhlenbrook S., Wetterhall F., Wood A., Lavado-Casimiro W., Yoshimura K., Imhoff R., van Oevelen P.J., Cantone C., Cattoën C., Pimentel R., Werner M. (July 2025) Enhancing Research-to-Operations in Hydrological Forecasting: Innovations across Scales and Horizons, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0322.1
- Zheng M., Ralph F.M., Tallapragada V., Wilson A.M., Babbitt S.H., Bartlett S.M., Cao B., Centurioni L., Cordeira J.M., Davis C., Monache L.D., Doyle J.D., Elless T.J., Feuer S., Haase J.S., Hathaway N., Hutchinson T., Iniguez P., Kawzenuk B., Knappe E., Lavers D.A., Lundry A., Michaelis A., Pappenberger F., Reynolds C.A., Rickert R., Roj S., Rutz J.J., Subramanian A.C., Torn R.D., Wang J., Wu K., Wu X. (July 2025) Atmospheric River Reconnaissance: Mission Planning, Execution, and Incorporation of Operational and Science Objectives, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0160.1
- Magnusson L., Majumdar S.J., Dahoui M.L., Bormann N., Bonavita M., Browne P.A., Brown A.R., De Chiara G., Duncan D.I., English S., Geer A.J., Healy S., Ingleby B., McNally A.P., Pappenberger F., Prates F., Rabier F., de Rosnay P., Rennie M.P., Warrick F. (July 2025) The role of observations in ECMWF tropical cyclone initialisation and forecasting, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.4924
- Cooper F.C., Nath S., McRae A.T.T., Antonio B., Weisheimer A., Palmer T., Gudoshava M., Kalladath N., Amidhun A., Kinyua J., Kimani H., Koros D., Mwai Z., Maswi C., Chanzu B., Teshome A., Kebebe B., Tamene B., Abebe S., Pappenberger F., Chantry M., Obai I., Mason J. (July 2025) Rainfall forecasts in daily use over East Africa improved by machine learning, Arxiv. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2512.24525
- 2024
- Fatima Pillosu, Mariana Clare, Thomas Haiden, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhomme, Hannah Cloke (August 2024) Can we now predict flash floods globally and up to medium-ranges?. DOI: 10.5194/ems2024-1064
- Marieke Wesselkamp, Matthew Chantry, Ewan Pinnington, Margarita Choulga, Souhail Boussetta, Maria Kalweit, Joschka Bödecker, Carsten F. Dormann, Florian Pappenberger, Gianpaolo Balsamo (August 2024) Advances in Land Surface Model-based Forecasting: A Comparison of LSTM, Gradient Boosting, and Feedforward Neural Networks as Prognostic State Emulators in a Case Study with ECLand. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-2081
- Marieke Wesselkamp, Matthew Chantry, Ewan Pinnington, Margarita Choulga, Souhail Boussetta, Maria Kalweit, Joschka Bödecker, Carsten F. Dormann, Florian Pappenberger, Gianpaolo Balsamo (August 2024) Supplementary material to "Advances in Land Surface Model-based Forecasting: A Comparison of LSTM, Gradient Boosting, and Feedforward Neural Networks as Prognostic State Emulators in a Case Study with ECLand". DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-2081-supplement
- Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Florian Pappenberger, Gabriele Messori, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Hannah Cloke, Giuliano Di Baldassarre (August 2024) Drought impact-based forecasting: Trade-offs between indicators and impacts. DOI: 10.5194/ems2024-1016
- Pagano Thomas C., Casati Barbara, Landman Stephanie, Loveday Nicholas, Taggart Robert, Ebert Elizabeth E., Khanarmuei Mohammadreza, Jensen Tara L., Mittermaier Marion, Roberts Helen, Willington Steve, Roberts Nigel, Sowko Mike, Strassberg Gordon, Kluepfel Charles, Bullock Timothy A., Turner David D., Pappenberger Florian, Osborne Neal, Noble Chris (July 2024) Challenges of Operational Weather Forecast Verification and Evaluation, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0257.1
- Ben Bouallegue Zied, Clare Mariana C. A., Magnusson Linus, Gascon Estibaliz, Maier-Gerber Michael, Janousek Martin, Rodwell Mark, Pinault Florian, Dramsch Jesper S., Lang Simon T. K., Raoult Baudouin, Rabier Florence, Chevallier Matthieu, Sandu Irina, Dueben Peter, Chantry Matthew, Pappenberger Florian (July 2024) The Rise of Data-Driven Weather Forecasting A First Statistical Assessment of Machine Learning-Based Weather Forecasts in an Operational-Like Context, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0162.1
- Fatima Maria Pillosu, A Bucherie, A Kruczkiewicz, Thomas Haiden, C. Baugh, C Hultquist, H Vergara, Florian Pappenberger, E Stephens, Christel Prudhomme, Hannah Cloke (July 2024) Can global rainfall forecasts identify areas at flash flood risk? Proof of concept for Ecuador, ECMWF. DOI: 10.21957/8e2dd559f0
- Lang S., Alexe M., Chantry M., Dramsch J., Pinault F., Raoult B., Clare M.C.A., Lessig C., Maier-Gerber M., Magnusson L., Bouallègue Z.B., Nemesio A.P., Dueben P.D., Brown A., Pappenberger F., Rabier F. (July 2024) AIFS - ECMWF’S DATA-DRIVEN FORECASTING SYSTEM, Arxiv. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2406.01465
- Matthews G., Baugh C., Barnard C., De Wiart C.C., Colonese J., Decremer D., Grimaldi S., Hansford E., Mazzetti C., O’Regan K., Pappenberger F., Ramos A., Salamon P., Tasev D., Prudhomme C. (July 2024) On the operational implementation of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), Flood Forecasting A Global Perspective. DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-443-14009-9.00005-5
- Matthews G., Baugh C., Barnard C., Carton De Wiart C., Colonese J., Grimaldi S., Ham D., Hansford E., Harrigan S., Heiselberg S., Hooker H., Hossain S., Mazzetti C., Milano L., Moschini F., O’Regan K., Pappenberger F., Pfister D., Rajbhandari R.M., Salamon P., Ramos A., Shelton K., Stephens E., Tasev D., Turner M., van den Homberg M., Wittig J., Zsótér E., Prudhomme C. (July 2024) On the operational implementation of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), Flood Forecasting A Global Perspective. DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-443-14009-9.00014-6
- Shyrokaya A., Pappenberger F., Pechlivanidis I., Messori G., Khatami S., Mazzoleni M., Di Baldassarre G. (July 2024) Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact-based forecasting of droughts, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water. DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1698
- Ruparell K., Marks R.J., Wood A., Hunt K.M.R., Cloke H.L., Prudhomme C., Pappenberger F., Chantry M. (July 2024) Hydra-LSTM: A semi-shared Machine Learning architecture for prediction across Watersheds, Arxiv. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2410.16343
- Rouges E., Ferranti L., Kantz H., Pappenberger F. (July 2024) Pattern-based forecasting enhances the prediction skill of European heatwaves into the sub-seasonal range, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07390-0
- Nearing G., Cohen D., Dube V., Gauch M., Gilon O., Harrigan S., Hassidim A., Klotz D., Kratzert F., Metzger A., Nevo S., Pappenberger F., Prudhomme C., Shalev G., Shenzis S., Tekalign T.Y., Weitzner D., Matias Y. (July 2024) Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds, Nature. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07145-1
- Datti A.D., Zeng G., Tarnavsky E., Cornforth R., Pappenberger F., Abdullahi B.A., Onyejuruwa A. (July 2024) Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates against Rain Gauge Observations across Agro-Climatic Zones of Nigeria, West Africa, Remote Sensing. DOI: 10.3390/rs16101755
- Richardson D.S., Cloke H.L., Methven J.A., Pappenberger F. (July 2024) Jumpiness in Ensemble Forecasts of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks, Weather and Forecasting. DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-23-0113.1
- Wesselkamp M., Chantry M., Pinnington E., Choulga M., Boussetta S., Kalweit M., Boedecker J., Dormann C.F., Pappenberger F., Balsamo G. (July 2024) ADVANCES IN LAND SURFACE MODEL-BASED FORECASTING: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF LSTM, GRADIENT BOOSTING, AND FEEDFORWARD NEURAL NETWORK MODELS AS PROGNOSTIC STATE EMULATORS, Arxiv. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2407.16463
- Lessig C., Rackow T., Koldunov N., Sandu I., Alexe M., Clare M., Chantry M., Pappenberger F., Dramsch J., Jung T., Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia X., Tietsche S. (July 2024) ROBUSTNESS OF AI-BASED WEATHER FORECASTS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE, Arxiv. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2409.18529
- Wesselkamp M., Albrecht J., Pinnington E., Castillo W.J., Pappenberger F., Dormann C.F. (July 2024) THE ECOLOGICAL FORECAST LIMIT REVISITED: POTENTIAL, ACTUAL AND RELATIVE SYSTEM PREDICTABILITY, Arxiv. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2412.00753
- Shyrokaya A., Messori G., Pechlivanidis I., Pappenberger F., Cloke H.L., Di Baldassarre G. (July 2024) Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018-2019 drought in Germany, Environmental Research Letters. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9
- Lavers D.A., Wilson A.M., Ralph F.M., Tallapragada V., Pappenberger F., Reynolds C., Doyle J.D., Monache L.D., Davis C., Subramanian A., Torn R.D., Cordeira J.M., Centurioni L., Haase J.S. (July 2024) Advancing Atmospheric River Science and Inspiring Future Development of the Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Program, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0278.1
- Titley H.A., Cloke H.L., Stephens E.M., Pappenberger F., Zsoter E. (July 2024) Using Ensembles to Analyze Predictability Links in the Tropical Cyclone Flood Forecast Chain, Journal of Hydrometeorology. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-23-0022.1
- 2023
- Han Wang, Ping-an Zhong, Ervin Zsoter, Christel Prudhomme, Florian Pappenberger, Bin Xu (January 2023) Regional Adaptability of Global and Regional Hydrological Forecast System, Water. DOI: 10.3390/w15020347
- Shraddha Gupta, Zhen Su, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths, Norbert Marwan, Florian Pappenberger (February 2023) Interconnection between the Indian and the East Asian summer monsoon: Spatial synchronization patterns of extreme rainfall events, International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.7861
- Chloe Brimicombe, Chun Hay Brian Lo, Florian Pappenberger, Claudia Di Napoli, Pedro Maciel, Tiago Quintino, Rosalind Cornforth, Hannah L. Cloke (February 2023) Wet Bulb Globe Temperature: Indicating Extreme Heat Risk on a Global Grid, GeoHealth. DOI: 10.1029/2022GH000701
- (January 2023) Software Strategy and Roadmap 2023-2027, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 904. DOI: 10.21957/c6d7df0322
- Claudia Di Napoli, Theodore Allen, Pablo A. Méndez‐Lázaro, Florian Pappenberger (January 2023) Heat stress in the Caribbean: Climatology, drivers, and trends of human biometeorology indices, International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.7774
- Magnusson L., Prudhomme C., Di Giuseppe F., Di Napoli C., Pappenberger F. (July 2023) Operational multiscale predictions of hazardous events, Extreme Weather Forecasting. DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-820124-4.00008-6
- Rouges E., Ferranti L., Kantz H., Pappenberger F. (July 2023) European heatwaves: Link to large-scale circulation patterns and intraseasonal drivers, International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.8024
- Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Gabriele Messori, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Florian Pappenberger, Hannah Cloke, Giuliano Di Baldassarre (December 2023) Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018–2019 drought in Germany, OpenAlex. DOI: 10.60692/mep87-95g80
- Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Hannah Cloke, Gabriele Messori, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis (May 2023) Drought impact-based forecasting: Trade-offs between indicators and impacts. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1555
- Gianpaolo Balsamo, Florence Rabier, Magdalena Balmaseda, Peter Bauer, Andy Brown, Peter Dueben, Steve English, Tony McNally, Florian Pappenberger, Irina Sandu, Jean-Noël Thepaut, Nils Wedi (May 2023) Recent progress and outlook for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13110
- Milan Klöwer, Pascal Edouard, Andreas M Niess, Sebastien Racinais, Yannis P Pitsiladis, Florian Pappenberger, Karsten Hollander (May 2023) Forecasting feels-like temperatures as a strategy to reduce heat illnesses during sport events, British Journal of Sports Medicine. DOI: 10.1136/bjsports-2022-106413
- Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Gabriele Messori, Sina Khatami, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Giuliano Di Baldassarre (July 2023) Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact-based forecasting of droughts. DOI: 10.5194/ems2023-609
- Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Gabriele Messori, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Florian Pappenberger, Hannah Cloke, Giuliano Di Baldassarre (December 2023) Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018–2019 drought in Germany, OpenAlex. DOI: 10.60692/95a43-da476
- Gupta S., Banerjee A., Marwan N., Richardson D., Magnusson L., Kurths J., Pappenberger F. (July 2023) Analysis of spatially coherent forecast error structures, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.4536
- Dehaan L.L., Wilson A.M., Kawzenuk B., Zheng M., Monache L.D., Wu X., Lavers D.A., Ingleby B., Tallapragada V., Pappenberger F., Ralph F.M. (July 2023) Impacts of Dropsonde Observations on Forecasts of Atmospheric Rivers and Associated Precipitation in the NCEP GFS and ECMWF IFS Models, Weather and Forecasting. DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-23-0025.1
- Lavers D.A., Torn R.D., Davis C., Richardson D.S., Ralph F.M., Pappenberger F. (July 2023) Forecast evaluation of the North Pacific jet stream using AR Recon dropwindsondes, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.4545
- Rouges E., Ferranti L., Kantz H., Pappenberger F. (July 2023) Pattern-based forecasting enhances the prediction skill of European heatwaves at the sub-seasonal range, Research Square. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3483612/v1
- Jafarzadegan K., Moradkhani H., Pappenberger F., Moftakhari H., Bates P., Abbaszadeh P., Marsooli R., Ferreira C., Cloke H.L., Ogden F., Duan Q. (July 2023) Recent Advances and New Frontiers in Riverine and Coastal Flood Modeling, Reviews of Geophysics. DOI: 10.1029/2022RG000788
- Bouallègue Z.B., Clare M.C.A., Magnusson L., Gascón E., Maier-Gerber M., Janoušek M., Rodwell M., Pinault F., Dramsch J.S., Lang S.T.K., Raoult B., Rabier F., Chevallier M., Sandu I., Dueben P., Chantry M., Pappenberger F. (July 2023) THE RISE OF DATA-DRIVEN WEATHER FORECASTING, Arxiv. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2307.10128
- Nearing G., Cohen D., Dube V., Gauch M., Gilon O., Harrigan S., Hassidim A., Klotz D., Kratzert F., Metzger A., Nevo S., Pappenberger F., Prudhomme C., Shalev G., Shenzis S., Tekalign T., Weitzner D., Matias Y. (July 2023) AI Increases Global Access to Reliable Flood Forecasts, Arxiv. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2307.16104
- 2022
- Arnald Puy, Razi Sheikholeslami, Hoshin V. Gupta, Jim W. Hall, Bruce Lankford, Samuele Lo Piano, Jonas Meier, Florian Pappenberger, Amilcare Porporato, Giulia Vico, Andrea Saltelli (June 2022) The delusive accuracy of global irrigation water withdrawal estimates, Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30731-8
- Arnald Puy, Razi Sheikholeslami, Hoshin Gupta, Jim Hall, Bruce Lankford, Samuele Lo Piano, Jonas Meier, Florian Pappenberger, Amilcare Porporato, Giulia Vico, Andrea Saltelli (March 2022) How certain are we about the model-based estimations of global irrigation water withdrawal? . DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8603
- Chloe Brimicombe, Tiago Quintino, Simon Smart, Claudia Di Napoli, Robin Hogan, Hannah L. Cloke [ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1472-868X], Florian Pappenberger (April 2022) Calculating the Cosine of the Solar Zenith Angle for Thermal Comfort Indices, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 895. DOI: 10.21957/o7pcu1x2b
- Chloe Brimicombe, Claudia Di Napoli, Tiago Quintino, Florian Pappenberger, Rosalind Cornforth, Hannah L. Cloke (June 2022) Thermofeel: A python thermal comfort indices library, SoftwareX, pp. 101005. DOI: 10.1016/j.softx.2022.101005
- Christel Prudhomme, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpalo Balsamo, Andy Brown, Souhail Boussetta, Hannah Cloke, patricia de Rosnay, Shaun Harrigan, Cinzia Mazzetti, Florian Pappenberger, Irina Sandu, Ervin zsoter (June 2022) EC-Land Hydro: the benefits of integrating hydrology in earth system modelling. DOI: 10.5194/ems2022-692
- Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Luca Furnari, Linus Magnusson, Alfonso Senatore, Giuseppe Mendicino, Florian Pappenberger, Jörg Matschullat (June 2022) Forecasting extreme precipitation in the central Mediterranean: Different products for different timescales. DOI: 10.5194/ems2022-356
- R. Emerton, C. Brimicombe, L. Magnusson, C. Roberts, C. Di Napoli, H. L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger (August 2022) Predicting the unprecedented: forecasting the June 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, Weather. DOI: 10.1002/wea.4257
- Kieran M. R. Hunt, Gwyneth R. Matthews, Florian Pappenberger, Christel Prudhomme (November 2022) Using a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to boost river streamflow forecasts over the western United States, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. DOI: 10.5194/hess-26-5449-2022
- Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Luca Furnari, Linus Magnusson, Alfonso Senatore, Giuseppe Mendicino, Florian Pappenberger, Jörg Matschullat (November 2022) Forecasting extreme precipitation in the central Mediterranean: Changes in predictors' strength with prediction lead time, Meteorological Applications. DOI: 10.1002/met.2101
