David Lavers

Forecast Department, Evaluation Section, Diagnostics

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David is a scientist in the diagnostics team of the Forecast Department working on the European Union Horizon 2020 IMPREX Project. His main research interests include improving understanding and forecasting of hydrological extremes, in particular using the Extreme Forecast Index; and diagnosing forecast errors in mid-latitude storms, with a focus on assessing atmospheric rivers within the ECMWF IFS using field campaign observations.

Professional interests: 
  • Forecasting of hydrological extremes.
  • Diagnosis of model errors of atmospheric rivers.
  • Calibration of forecasts.
Career background: 
  • 2016 - present: Scientist, ECMWF, U.K.

  • 2014 - 2015: Postdoctoral Research Scholar, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, U.S.A.

  • 2014: Visiting Scientist, ECMWF, U.K.

  • 2013 - 2014: Postdoctoral Research Scholar, IIHR – Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, U.S.A.

  • 2011- 2013: Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, U.K.

  • 2009: Visiting Assistant Professional Specialist, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, New Jersey, U.S.A

  • 2007 - 2011: PhD on seasonal hydrological prediction at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (Wallingford) and the University of Birmingham, U.K.

  • 2005 - 2006: MSc Applied Meteorology and Climatology, University of Birmingham, U.K.

  • 2002 - 2005: BSc Meteorology, University of Reading, U.K.

External recognitions: 
  • International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) 2014 Tison Award.

Selected Peer-reviewed publications

  • Lavers, D.A., Rodwell, M.J., Richardson, D.S., Ralph, F.M., Doyle, J.D., Reynolds, C.A., Tallapragada, V. and Pappenberger, F. 2018: The Gauging and Modeling of Rivers in the Sky. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2018GL079019.
  • Lavers, D.A., Richardson, D.S., Ramos, A.M., Zsoter, E., Pappenberger, F., Trigo, R.M. Earlier awareness of extreme winter precipitation across the western Iberian Peninsula. Meteorol Appl. 2018;1–7. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1727
  • Lavers, D.A., Zsoter, E., Richardson, D.S. and Pappenberger, F. 2017: An assessment of the ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport during boreal winter. Weather and Forecasting, 32(4), 1667–1674. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0073.1.
  • Lavers, D.A., Pappenberger, F., Richardson, D.S. and Zsoter, E. 2016: ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 11852–11858. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320.
  • Lavers, D. A., Pappenberger, F. and Zsoter, E. 2014: Extending medium‐range predictability of extreme hydrological events in Europe, Nat. Commun., 5, 5382, doi:10.1038/ncomms6382.
  • Lavers, D.A., Allan, R.P., Wood, E.F., Villarini, G., Brayshaw, D.J. and Wade, A.J. 2011: Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L23803. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049783.

thumbnail photo of David Lavers
Contact Details:
david . laversecmwf . int