David Lavers

Forecast Department, Evaluation Section, Diagnostics

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David is a scientist in the diagnostics team of the Forecast Department whose research focuses on the global water cycle. This includes the evaluation of precipitation forecasts, the assessment of the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, and through his involvement in the Atmospheric Rivers Reconnaissance observational campaign in the northeast Pacific, the use of unique campaign observations for ECMWF model diagnostics of atmospheric rivers. He also contributes to the European State of the Climate (ESOTC) annual report of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

Professional interests: 
  • Atmospheric rivers and the forecasting of hydrological extremes.
  • Observational campaigns.
  • Model diagnostics.
  • Climate monitoring.
Career background: 
  • 2016 - present: Scientist, ECMWF, U.K.

  • 2014 - 2015: Postdoctoral Research Scholar, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, U.S.A.

  • 2014: Visiting Scientist, ECMWF, U.K.

  • 2013 - 2014: Postdoctoral Research Scholar, IIHR – Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City, U.S.A.

  • 2011- 2013: Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, U.K.

  • 2009: Visiting Assistant Professional Specialist, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, New Jersey, U.S.A

  • 2007 - 2011: PhD on seasonal hydrological prediction at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (Wallingford) and the University of Birmingham, U.K.

  • 2005 - 2006: MSc Applied Meteorology and Climatology, University of Birmingham, U.K.

  • 2002 - 2005: BSc Meteorology, University of Reading, U.K.

External recognitions: 
  • Honorary Research Fellow, University of Birmingham, UK
  • International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) 2014 Tison Award.

Selected peer-reviewed publications (49 published articles in total from 2009; 26 as lead author)

  • Lavers, D. A., Harrigan, S. and Prudhomme, C. 2021: Precipitation Biases in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. Journal of Hydrometeorology, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0308.1
  • Lavers, D. A., Ralph, F. M., Richardson, D. S. and Pappenberger, F. 2020: Improved forecasts of atmospheric rivers through systematic reconnaissance, better modelling, and insights on conversion of rain to flooding. Commun Earth Environ 1, 39 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00042-1
  • Griffith, H. V., Wade, A. J., Lavers, D. A., Watts, G. 2020: Atmospheric river orientation determines flood occurrence. Hydrological Processes. 19. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13905
  • Ralph, F. M. et al. 2020: West Coast Forecast Challenges and Development of Atmospheric River Reconnaissance. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101, E1357–E1377, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0183.1
  • Lavers, D. A. Ingleby, N. B., Subramanian, A. C., Richardson, D. S., Ralph, F. M., Doyle, J. D., Reynolds, C. A., Torn, R. D., Rodwell, M. J., Tallapragada, V. and Pappenberger, F. 2020: Forecast Errors and Uncertainties in Atmospheric Rivers. Weather and Forecasting, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0049.1
  • Lavers, D. A. et al. 2020: A Vision for Hydrological Prediction. Atmosphere, 11, 237, http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11030237
  • Lavers, D. A., Harrigan, S., Andersson, E., Richardson, D. S., Prudhomme, C. and Pappenberger, F. 2019: A vision for improving global flood forecasting, Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab52b2
  • Gascón, E., Lavers, D., Hamill, T. M., Richardson, D. S., Bouallègue, Z. B., Leutbecher, M. and Pappenberger, F. 2019: Statistical postprocessing of dual‐resolution ensemble precipitation forecasts across Europe. Q J R Meteorol Soc,118. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3615
  • Lavers, D. A., Beljaars, A., Richardson, D. S., Rodwell, M. J. and Pappenberger, F. 2019: A Forecast Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Height Over the Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030454
  • Lavers, D. A., Rodwell, M. J., Richardson, D. S., Ralph, F. M., Doyle, J. D., Reynolds, C. A., Tallapragada, V. and Pappenberger, F. 2018: The Gauging and Modeling of Rivers in the Sky. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079019
  • Lavers, D.A., Richardson, D. S., Ramos, A. M., Zsoter, E., Pappenberger, F., Trigo, R.M. 2018: Earlier awareness of extreme winter precipitation across the western Iberian Peninsula. Meteorol Appl. 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1727
  • Lavers, D. A., Zsoter, E., Richardson, D. S. and Pappenberger, F. 2017: An assessment of the ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport during boreal winter. Weather and Forecasting, 32(4), 1667–1674. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0073.1
  • Lavers, D. A., Pappenberger, F., Richardson, D. S. and Zsoter, E. 2016: ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 11852–11858. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320
  • Lavers, D. A., Pappenberger, F. and Zsoter, E. 2014: Extending medium‐range predictability of extreme hydrological events in Europe, Nat. Commun., 5, 5382, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6382
  • Lavers, D., Prudhomme, C. and Hannah, D. M. 2013: European precipitation connections with large-scale mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58:2, 310-327, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.754545
  • Lavers, D. A., Allan, R. P., Wood, E. F., Villarini, G., Brayshaw, D. J. and Wade, A. J. 2011: Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L23803. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049783
  • Lavers, D., Luo, L. F. and Wood, E. F. 2009: A multiple model assessment of seasonal climate forecast skill for applications. Geophysical Research Letters, 36. L23711, doi:10.1029/2009GL041365

thumbnail photo of David Lavers
Contact Details:
david . laversecmwf . int