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Representing atmospheric model uncertainties: Applications in seasonal forecasts with CNRM-CM

Author

Lauriane Batte

Michel Déqué

2016, Poster

File

17043-representing-atmospheric-model-uncertainties-applications-seasonal-forecasts-cnrm-cm.pdf

AEMET-&-SREPS: Convection-permitting EPS

Author

Alfons Pallarès

J.A. Garcia-Moya

M. Compte

P. Escriba

Carlos Santos

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17044-aemet-sreps-convection-permitting-eps.pdf

Predictability and Model Uncertainty of MJO Convection and Propagation in the ECMWF IFS Stochastic Ensembles

Author

Shuyi Chen

Hannah Christensen

Brandon Kerns

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17045-predictability-and-model-uncertainty-mjo-convection-and-propagation-ecmwf-ifs-stochastic.pdf

Model uncertainty in representing midlatitude atmospheric synoptic variability: a spectral perspective

Author

Alessandro Dell’Aquila

Susanna Corti

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17046-model-uncertainty-representing-midlatitude-atmospheric-synoptic-variability-spectral.pdf

Uncertainty quantification of atmospheric transport and dispersion backtracking using an ensemble approach

Author

Pieter De Meutter

Johan Camps

Andy Delcloo

Piet Termonia

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17057-uncertainty-quantification-atmospheric-transport-and-dispersion-backtracking-using-ensemble.pdf

Model uncertainty quantification using ultra-efficient inexact hardware

Author

Peter Düben

Tim Palmer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17059-model-uncertainty-quantification-using-ultra-efficient-inexact-hardware.pdf

Review of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)

Author

N. Gagnon

P.L. Houtekamer

X.-X. Deng

A. Erfani

M. Charron

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17062-review-perturbation-methods-meteorological-service-canada-msc-global-ensemble-prediction.pdf

Case-study based evaluation of stochastic physics effects in the high-resolution ensemble COSMO-E

Author

Christina Klasa

Heini Wernli

Andre Walser

Marco Arpagaus

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17071-case-study-based-evaluation-stochastic-physics-effects-high-resolution-ensemble-cosmo-e.pdf

Evaluation of the SKEBS impact on WRF-based mesoscale ensemble prediction system

Author

Chih-Hsin Li

Jing-Shan Hong

Xing-Qin Fang

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17072-evaluation-skebs-impact-wrf-based-mesoscale-ensemble-prediction-system.pdf

Representation of model error using stochastic equation with flow-dependent spatial and temporal correlations and noise amplitude

Author

Ekaterina Machulskaya

Richard Keane

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17073-representation-model-error-using-stochastic-equation-flow-dependent-spatial-and-temporal.pdf

Perturbing hydrology parameters in seasonal forecasts

Author

Dave MacLeod

Hannah Cloke

Florian Pappenberger

Antje Weisheimer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17074-perturbing-hydrology-parameters-seasonal-forecasts.pdf

Bayesian Framework Design for Quantifying Model Uncertainty: A Univariate Probabilistic Mixture Model Approach

Author

Husain Najafi

Ali Bavani

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17075-bayesian-framework-design-quantifying-model-uncertainty-univariate-probabilistic-mixture-model.pdf

Assessing spatial precipitation uncertainties in a convective-scale ensemble

Author

Robert Plant

S.R.A. Dey

N.M. Roberts

S. Migliorini

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17076-assessing-spatial-precipitation-uncertainties-convective-scale-ensemble.pdf

The spatial behaviour and evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble

Author

Nigel Roberts

Seonaid Dey

Giovanni Leoncini

Robert Plant

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17078-spatial-behaviour-and-evaluation-convection-permitting-ensemble.pdf

Upscale impact of diabatic processes from convective to near-hemispheric scale

Author

Tobias Selz

George Craig

Lotte Bierdel

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17079-upscale-impact-diabatic-processes-convective-near-hemispheric-scale.pdf

An adaptive additive inflation scheme for ensemble Kalman filters

Author

Matthias Sommer

Tijana Janjic

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

16300-addaptive-additive-inflation-scheme-ensemble-kalman-filters.pdf

Impacts of a spatially varying random parameterscheme on cloud cover in MOGREPS

Author

Warren Tennant

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

16301-impacts-spatially-varying-random-parameterscheme-cloud-cover-mogreps.pdf

Development of Taiwan Central Weather Bureau Global Ensemble Prediction System for Typhoon-track

Author

John Tseng

Jen-Her Chen

Deng-Shun Chen

Daryl Kleist

Wen-Mei Chen

Young-Sin Lai

Shu-Chih Yang

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

16302-development-taiwan-central-weather-bureau-global-ensemble-prediction-system-typhoon-track.pdf

Impacts of stochastic physics on tropical variability in models

Author

Peter Watson

Antje Weisheimer

Tim Palmer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

16303-impacts-stochastic-physics-tropical-variability-models.pdf

On the numerical stability of surface-atmosphere coupling in weather and climate models

Author

Anton Beljaars

Emanuel Dutra

Gianpaolo Balsamo

2016, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

16336-numerical-stability-surface-atmosphere-coupling-weather-and-climate-models.pdf

On the operational implementation of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS)

Author

Paul Smith

Florian Pappenberger

Fredrik Wetterhall

J. Thielen

Blazej Krzeminski

P. Salamon

D. Muraro

M. Kalas

C. Baugh

2016, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

16337-operational-implementation-european-flood-awareness-system-efas.pdf

Exploring EC-Earth 3.2-Beta performance on the new ECMWF Cray-Broadwell

Author

Souhail Boussetta

Cristian Simarro

D. Lucas

2016, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

16377-exploring-ec-earth-32-beta-performance-new-ecmwf-cray-broadwell.pdf

Ensemble of Data Assimilations applied to the CAMS' greenhouse gases analysis

Author

Sebastien Massart

Massimo Bonavita

2016, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

16438-ensemble-data-assimilations-applied-cams-greenhouse-gases-analysis.pdf

Slant path radiative transfer for the assimilation of sounder radiances

Author

Niels Bormann

2016, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

16482-slant-path-radiative-transfer-assimilation-sounder-radiances.pdf

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Representing atmospheric model uncertainties: Applications in seasonal forecasts with CNRM-CM

AEMET-&-SREPS: Convection-permitting EPS

Predictability and Model Uncertainty of MJO Convection and Propagation in the ECMWF IFS Stochastic Ensembles

Model uncertainty in representing midlatitude atmospheric synoptic variability: a spectral perspective

Uncertainty quantification of atmospheric transport and dispersion backtracking using an ensemble approach

Model uncertainty quantification using ultra-efficient inexact hardware

Review of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)

Case-study based evaluation of stochastic physics effects in the high-resolution ensemble COSMO-E

Evaluation of the SKEBS impact on WRF-based mesoscale ensemble prediction system

Representation of model error using stochastic equation with flow-dependent spatial and temporal correlations and noise amplitude

Perturbing hydrology parameters in seasonal forecasts

Bayesian Framework Design for Quantifying Model Uncertainty: A Univariate Probabilistic Mixture Model Approach

Assessing spatial precipitation uncertainties in a convective-scale ensemble

The spatial behaviour and evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble

Upscale impact of diabatic processes from convective to near-hemispheric scale

An adaptive additive inflation scheme for ensemble Kalman filters

Impacts of a spatially varying random parameterscheme on cloud cover in MOGREPS

Development of Taiwan Central Weather Bureau Global Ensemble Prediction System for Typhoon-track

Impacts of stochastic physics on tropical variability in models

On the numerical stability of surface-atmosphere coupling in weather and climate models

On the operational implementation of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS)

Exploring EC-Earth 3.2-Beta performance on the new ECMWF Cray-Broadwell

Ensemble of Data Assimilations applied to the CAMS' greenhouse gases analysis

Slant path radiative transfer for the assimilation of sounder radiances

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