The Workshop on Ensemble prediction was held from 7 to 9 November 2007.
Description
This workshop aimed to review the most recent advances in ensemble techniques applied to data-assimilation and forecast systems for predictions ranging from days, through months and seasons, to multi-annual timescales.
Topics discussed during the workshop include:
- Representation of initial uncertainties (ensemble data assimilation, ensemble transform Kalman filter, bred vectors, singular vectors etc)
- Representation of model uncertainties (multi-model ensembles, perturbed parameter ensembles, stochastic parametrisation etc)
- Validation and calibration methods
- Applications of ensemble forecasts
Results of both theoretical and practical research, using both global and limited area models, are included in the presentations. Lessons drawn from intercomparisons of results on different timescales, as encouraged in the World Climate Research Programme's Strategic Framework on seamless prediction, were a focus of discussion at the workshop.
Programme
Introduction and working group reports
Presentations
| Ensemble approaches | |
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On some aspects of validation of probabilistic prediction Olivier Talagrand (LMD) |
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Status/developments at UK MetOffice Christine Johnson (Met Office) |
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Status/developments at NCEP Zoltan Toth (NCEP) |
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Status/developments at ECMWF Roberto Buizza (ECMWF) |
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Status/developments at MSC Peter Houtekamer (MSC) |
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Work at JMA on Ensemble Forecast Methods Hitoshi Sato (JMA) |
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Stochastic parameterisation of multi-scale processes using a dual grid and ‘real-time computer games physics’ Glenn Shutts (Met Office) |
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GLAMEPS Trond Iversen (Met No) |
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The stratosphere-troposphere connection in ensemble forecasting Jan Barkmeijer (KNMI) |
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Probabilistic predictions from the ECMWF monthly and seasonal forecast systems Franco Molteni (ECMWF) |
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| Long-range forecasting and dynamical downscaling | |
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ENSEMBLE_stream-1 hindcasts: from the season to the decade with four coupled models Michel Deque (Meteo-France) |
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Downscaling of ENSEMBLES seasonal integrations by RegCM Čedo Branković (CMHS) |
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Work on seasonal forecasting and dynamical downscaling of ensemble at INM Bartolome Orfila (INM) |
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APCC/CliPAS multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction In-Sik Kang (Seoul National University) |
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The interactive ensemble strategy for quantifying ENSO predictability Ben Kirtman (COLA) |
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Multi-model ensemble configurations Suranjana Saha (NCEP) |
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| Calibration and application issues | |
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Exploring ensemble forecast calibration issues using reforecast data sets Tom Hamill (NOAA) |
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Extended probabilistic hydrological forecasts of the Ganges and Brahmaputra using ECMWF ensemble products Peter Webster (Georgia University of Technology) |
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Application of Ensemble Systems in flood forecasting Jutta Thielen (JRC Ispra) |
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Working groups
| WG1: Representing initial and model uncertainties | |
| WG2: Methodologies for downscaling and calibration | - |
| WG3: Verification and applications of ensemble forecasts | |
Proceedings
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The stratosphere-troposphere connection in ensemble forecasting J Barkmeijer |
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Downscaling of ECMWF seasonal integrations by RegCM C Brankovic |
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Potential use of en ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System R Buizza |
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ENSEMBLES stream-1 hindcasts: from the season to the decade with four coupled models M Deque |
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Exploring ensemble forecast calibration issues using reforecast data sets T M Hamill |
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Status of the global EPS at Environment Canada P Houtekamer |
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GLAMEPS - The HIRLAM/ALADIN Grand Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction System T Iversen |
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Medium-range ensemble forecasts at the Met Office C Johnson |
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APCC/CliPAS multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction I-S Kang |
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The interactive ensemble strategy for quantifying ENSO predictability B P Kirtman |
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Predictions of tropical rainfall with the ECMWF seasonal and monthly forecast systems F Molteni |
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Work on seasonal forecasting at inm. dynamical downscaling of the ECMWF system 3 and of the global integrations of the EU ensembles project B Orfila |
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Work at JMA on ensemble forecast methods H Sato |
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Stochastic parametrization of multi-scale processes using a dual grid and 'real-time computer games physics' G Shutts |
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On some aspects of validation of probabilistic prediction O Talagrand |
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Application of ensemble systems in flood forecasting J Thielen |
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Completing the forecast: assessing and communicating forecast uncertainty Z Toth |
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Medium Range and seasonal probabilistic prediction of the Ganges and Brahmaputra discharge P J Webster |
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