Scientist – ocean and sea ice variability and predictability
Research, Earth System Predictability, Extended Range
Summary:
Jonas is a research scientist in the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction team, working within the ACCIBERG project. He investigates the potential benefits of stochastically perturbed parametrization (SPP) schemes for sea ice and is broadly interested in how large-scale teleconnections influence forecast uncertainty, reliability and skill across the climate system.
Professional interests:
- sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability
- ensemble spread and reliability
- teleconnections with the stratosphere, sea ice and ocean
- scientific coding and statistical methods
Career background:
- since 2025: Scientist for sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction at ECMWF
- 2020-2024, PhD Student, Department of Theoretical Meteorology, University of Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany; Thesis “Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling and Its Impacts on Northern Winter Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecast Uncertainty”, supervised by Prof Thomas Birner
- 2015-2020, B.Sc. / M.Sc. Physics, University of Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany
- 2024
- Jonas Spaeth, Philip Rupp, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner (March 2024) Stratospheric impact on subseasonal forecast uncertainty in the northern extratropics, Communications Earth & Environment. DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01292-z
- J. Spaeth, P. Rupp, M. Osman, C. M. Grams, T. Birner (July 2024) Flow‐Dependence of Ensemble Spread of Subseasonal Forecasts Explored via North Atlantic‐European Weather Regimes, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1029/2024GL109733
- Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Dominik Büeler, Michael Sprenger, Thomas Birner (October 2024) The impact of synoptic storm likelihood on European subseasonal forecast uncertainty and their modulation by the stratosphere, Weather and Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-1287-2024
- 2023
- Philip Rupp, Jonas Spaeth, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner (September 2023) Enhanced Polar Vortex Predictability Following Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1029/2023gl104057
- 2022
- Jonas Spaeth, Thomas Birner (August 2022) Stratospheric modulation of Arctic Oscillation extremes as represented by extended-range ensemble forecasts, Weather and Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-883-2022
