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Representing atmospheric model uncertainties: Applications in seasonal forecasts with CNRM-CM

Author

Lauriane Batte

Michel Déqué

2016, Poster

File

17043-representing-atmospheric-model-uncertainties-applications-seasonal-forecasts-cnrm-cm.pdf

AEMET-&-SREPS: Convection-permitting EPS

Author

Alfons Pallarès

J.A. Garcia-Moya

M. Compte

P. Escriba

Carlos Santos

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17044-aemet-sreps-convection-permitting-eps.pdf

Predictability and Model Uncertainty of MJO Convection and Propagation in the ECMWF IFS Stochastic Ensembles

Author

Shuyi Chen

Hannah Christensen

Brandon Kerns

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17045-predictability-and-model-uncertainty-mjo-convection-and-propagation-ecmwf-ifs-stochastic.pdf

Model uncertainty in representing midlatitude atmospheric synoptic variability: a spectral perspective

Author

Alessandro Dell’Aquila

Susanna Corti

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17046-model-uncertainty-representing-midlatitude-atmospheric-synoptic-variability-spectral.pdf

Uncertainty quantification of atmospheric transport and dispersion backtracking using an ensemble approach

Author

Pieter De Meutter

Johan Camps

Andy Delcloo

Piet Termonia

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17057-uncertainty-quantification-atmospheric-transport-and-dispersion-backtracking-using-ensemble.pdf

Model uncertainty quantification using ultra-efficient inexact hardware

Author

Peter Düben

Tim Palmer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17059-model-uncertainty-quantification-using-ultra-efficient-inexact-hardware.pdf

Review of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)

Author

N. Gagnon

P.L. Houtekamer

X.-X. Deng

A. Erfani

M. Charron

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17062-review-perturbation-methods-meteorological-service-canada-msc-global-ensemble-prediction.pdf

Case-study based evaluation of stochastic physics effects in the high-resolution ensemble COSMO-E

Author

Christina Klasa

Heini Wernli

Andre Walser

Marco Arpagaus

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17071-case-study-based-evaluation-stochastic-physics-effects-high-resolution-ensemble-cosmo-e.pdf

Evaluation of the SKEBS impact on WRF-based mesoscale ensemble prediction system

Author

Chih-Hsin Li

Jing-Shan Hong

Xing-Qin Fang

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17072-evaluation-skebs-impact-wrf-based-mesoscale-ensemble-prediction-system.pdf

Representation of model error using stochastic equation with flow-dependent spatial and temporal correlations and noise amplitude

Author

Ekaterina Machulskaya

Richard Keane

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17073-representation-model-error-using-stochastic-equation-flow-dependent-spatial-and-temporal.pdf

Perturbing hydrology parameters in seasonal forecasts

Author

Dave MacLeod

Hannah Cloke

Florian Pappenberger

Antje Weisheimer

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17074-perturbing-hydrology-parameters-seasonal-forecasts.pdf

Bayesian Framework Design for Quantifying Model Uncertainty: A Univariate Probabilistic Mixture Model Approach

Author

Husain Najafi

Ali Bavani

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17075-bayesian-framework-design-quantifying-model-uncertainty-univariate-probabilistic-mixture-model.pdf

Assessing spatial precipitation uncertainties in a convective-scale ensemble

Author

Robert Plant

S.R.A. Dey

N.M. Roberts

S. Migliorini

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17076-assessing-spatial-precipitation-uncertainties-convective-scale-ensemble.pdf

The spatial behaviour and evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble

Author

Nigel Roberts

Seonaid Dey

Giovanni Leoncini

Robert Plant

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17078-spatial-behaviour-and-evaluation-convection-permitting-ensemble.pdf

Upscale impact of diabatic processes from convective to near-hemispheric scale

Author

Tobias Selz

George Craig

Lotte Bierdel

2016, Poster, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

17079-upscale-impact-diabatic-processes-convective-near-hemispheric-scale.pdf

Diagnostic methods for understanding the origin of forecast errors

Author

L. Magnusson

2017, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

17097-diagnostic-methods-understanding-origin-forecast-errors.pdf

Use and verification of ECMWF products in Member and Co-operating States (2016)

Author

Tim Hewson

2017, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

17100-use-and-verification-ecmwf-products-member-and-co-operating-states-2016.pdf

Assimilation of Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) in all-sky conditions

Author

Peter Lean

Alan Geer

Katrin Lonitz

2017, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

17174-assimilation-global-precipitation-mission-gpm-microwave-imager-gmi-all-sky-conditions.pdf

An evaluation of FY-3C MWRI and Assessment of the long-term quality of FY-3C MWHS-2 at ECMWF and the Met Office

Author

Heather Lawrence

F. Carminati

W. Bell

Niels Bormann

S. Newman

Nigel Atkinson

Alan Geer

S. Migliorini

Qifeng Lu

K. Chen

2017, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

17206-evaluation-fy-3c-mwri-and-assessment-long-term-quality-fy-3c-mwhs-2-ecmwf-and-met-office.pdf

Implementation of a CAMS-based aerosol climatology in the IFS

Author

S. Remy

Johannes Flemming

J.-J. Morcrette

2017, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

17219-implementation-cams-based-aerosol-climatology-ifs.pdf

All-sky assimilation of Megha-Tropiques/SAPHIR radiances in the ECMWF numerical weather prediction system

Author

P. Chambon

Alan Geer

2017, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

17253-all-sky-assimilation-megha-tropiquessaphir-radiances-ecmwf-numerical-weather-prediction.pdf

Comparing Arctic winter sea-ice thickness from SMOS and ORAS5

Author

Steffen Tietsche

Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda

Hao Zuo

Patricia de Rosnay

2017, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

17275-comparing-arctic-winter-sea-ice-thickness-smos-and-oras5.pdf

Analysis of the extreme rainfall event in North China in 19-20 July 2016 and its forecast performance of ECMWF’s products

Author

F. Jiolan

2017, Poster, Using ECMWF Forecasts 2017, Using ECMWF Forecasts

File

17289-analysis-extreme-rainfall-event-north-china-19-20-july-2016-and-its-forecast-performance.pdf

Stratus clouds in wintertime anticyclones in Hungary

Author

K. Kolláth

2017, Poster, Using ECMWF Forecasts 2017, Using ECMWF Forecasts

File

17290-stratus-clouds-wintertime-anticyclones-hungary.pdf

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Representing atmospheric model uncertainties: Applications in seasonal forecasts with CNRM-CM

AEMET-&-SREPS: Convection-permitting EPS

Predictability and Model Uncertainty of MJO Convection and Propagation in the ECMWF IFS Stochastic Ensembles

Model uncertainty in representing midlatitude atmospheric synoptic variability: a spectral perspective

Uncertainty quantification of atmospheric transport and dispersion backtracking using an ensemble approach

Model uncertainty quantification using ultra-efficient inexact hardware

Review of the perturbation methods in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS)

Case-study based evaluation of stochastic physics effects in the high-resolution ensemble COSMO-E

Evaluation of the SKEBS impact on WRF-based mesoscale ensemble prediction system

Representation of model error using stochastic equation with flow-dependent spatial and temporal correlations and noise amplitude

Perturbing hydrology parameters in seasonal forecasts

Bayesian Framework Design for Quantifying Model Uncertainty: A Univariate Probabilistic Mixture Model Approach

Assessing spatial precipitation uncertainties in a convective-scale ensemble

The spatial behaviour and evaluation of a convection-permitting ensemble

Upscale impact of diabatic processes from convective to near-hemispheric scale

Diagnostic methods for understanding the origin of forecast errors

Use and verification of ECMWF products in Member and Co-operating States (2016)

Assimilation of Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) in all-sky conditions

An evaluation of FY-3C MWRI and Assessment of the long-term quality of FY-3C MWHS-2 at ECMWF and the Met Office

Implementation of a CAMS-based aerosol climatology in the IFS

All-sky assimilation of Megha-Tropiques/SAPHIR radiances in the ECMWF numerical weather prediction system

Comparing Arctic winter sea-ice thickness from SMOS and ORAS5

Analysis of the extreme rainfall event in North China in 19-20 July 2016 and its forecast performance of ECMWF’s products

Stratus clouds in wintertime anticyclones in Hungary

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