Workshop on sub-seasonal predictability

The workshop on sub-seasonal predictability was held at ECMWF on 2-5 November 2015.

Workshop description

The workshop will provide an opportunity to review recent advances and future challenges in sub-seasonal prediction in coordination with the WCRP-WWRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project. Topics  that will be discussed include sources of sub-seasonal predictability (Madden-Julian Oscillation, stratospheric initial conditions, soil moisture, snow, sea-ice, sea surface temperature), and diagnostics and skill of operational forecasts. Working group discussions will be organised around three themes: physical processes (including model uncertainty simulation), forecast system/model design (including the definition of ocean-land-atmosphere initial conditions, ensemble generation methods, forecast length) and international multi-model efforts and collaborations.


Monday 2 November

Overview of sub-seasonal predictability
Gilbert Brunet (EC-Canada)
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The Madden Julian Oscillation
Steve Woolnough (University of Reading)
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Stratospheric processes
Mark Baldwin (University of Exeter)
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Land surface processes
Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF)
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Impact of snow
Emanuel Dutra (ECMWF)
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Role of sea-ice for sub-seasonal predictability
Matthieu Chevallier (Meteo-France)
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MJO-NAO connection and its implication to sub-seasonal prediction
Hai Lin (EC-Canada)
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Tuesday 3 November

Sub-seasonal aspects of Indian monsoon variability
R Krishnan (IITM, India)
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Towards sub-seasonal predictions of extreme heat
Debra Hudson (BMRC Australia)
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Sub-seasonal prediction over the Mediterranean
Piero Malguzzi (ISAC-CNR)
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Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF
Franco Molteni (ECMWF)
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Sub-seasonal prediction at NCEP
Arun Kumar (NCEP)
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Sub-seasonal prediction at JMA
Yuhei Takaya (JMA)
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Sub-seasonal variability in climate models
Joe Tribbia (NCAR)
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Impact of super-parametrizationon S2S skills
Cristiana Stan (COLA)
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Regime transitions associated with predictability of severe events
Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)
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Use of S2S forecasts in applications
Andrew Robertson (IRI)
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Sub-seasonal forecast products at UKMO
Anca Brookshaw (Met Office)
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Wednesday 4 November

WWRP/WCRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S)
Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
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The "Vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO" model-evaluation project
Nicholas Klingaman (University of Reading)
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Predictability studies using the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE)
Duane Waliser (CalTech)
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The North-American Multi-Model Ensemble
Kathy Pegion (George Mason University)
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WMO Lead Centre activities for global sub-seasonal MME prediction
Suhee Park (KMA)
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Working group reports

Working group 1 PDF icon  
Working group 2 PDF icon PDF icon  
Working group 3 PDF icon