The workshop on sub-seasonal predictability was held at ECMWF on 2-5 November 2015.
Workshop description
The workshop will provide an opportunity to review recent advances and future challenges in sub-seasonal prediction in coordination with the WCRP-WWRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project. Topics that will be discussed include sources of sub-seasonal predictability (Madden-Julian Oscillation, stratospheric initial conditions, soil moisture, snow, sea-ice, sea surface temperature), and diagnostics and skill of operational forecasts. Working group discussions will be organised around three themes: physical processes (including model uncertainty simulation), forecast system/model design (including the definition of ocean-land-atmosphere initial conditions, ensemble generation methods, forecast length) and international multi-model efforts and collaborations.
Presentations
Monday 2 November
| Overview of sub-seasonal predictability Gilbert Brunet (EC-Canada) |
 |
| The Madden Julian Oscillation Steve Woolnough (University of Reading) |
|
| Stratospheric processes Mark Baldwin (University of Exeter) |
|
| Land surface processes Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF) |
|
| Impact of snow Emanuel Dutra (ECMWF) |
|
| Role of sea-ice for sub-seasonal predictability Matthieu Chevallier (Meteo-France) |
|
| MJO-NAO connection and its implication to sub-seasonal prediction Hai Lin (EC-Canada) |
|
Tuesday 3 November
| Sub-seasonal aspects of Indian monsoon variability R Krishnan (IITM, India) |
|
| Towards sub-seasonal predictions of extreme heat Debra Hudson (BMRC Australia) |
|
| Sub-seasonal prediction over the Mediterranean Piero Malguzzi (ISAC-CNR) |
|
| Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF Franco Molteni (ECMWF) |
|
| Sub-seasonal prediction at NCEP Arun Kumar (NCEP) |
|
| Sub-seasonal prediction at JMA Yuhei Takaya (JMA) |
|
| Sub-seasonal variability in climate models Joe Tribbia (NCAR) |
|
| Impact of super-parametrizationon S2S skills Cristiana Stan (COLA) |
|
| Regime transitions associated with predictability of severe events Laura Ferranti (ECMWF) |
|
| Use of S2S forecasts in applications Andrew Robertson (IRI) |
|
| Sub-seasonal forecast products at UKMO Anca Brookshaw (Met Office) |
|
Wednesday 4 November
| WWRP/WCRP Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) Frederic Vitart (ECMWF) |
|
| The "Vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO" model-evaluation project Nicholas Klingaman (University of Reading) |
|
| Predictability studies using the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE) Duane Waliser (CalTech) |
|
| The North-American Multi-Model Ensemble Kathy Pegion (George Mason University) |
|
| WMO Lead Centre activities for global sub-seasonal MME prediction Suhee Park (KMA) |
|
Working group reports
| Working group 1 | |
|
|
| Working group 2 | |
|
|
| Working group 3 | |
|
|
Contact