The annual seminar on seasonal prediction happened between 3 to 7 September 2012 at ECMWF.
Description
In the past decade, ensemble-based, probabilistic seasonal forecasts have become more accurate and reliable, building on the continuous improvements of coupled atmosphere and ocean modelling, and on advances in the simulation of initial and model uncertainties. Seasonal prediction systems are now part of routine operational suites at leading numerical weather prediction centres, and seasonal forecasts are increasingly used in a range of applications to improve weather-associated risk management (e.g. to prevent losses due to severe flood and drought conditions, and to prepare for health-related emergencies).
The seminar will give a pedagogical review of the principles behind seasonal predictions. Recent scientific developments in probabilistic, coupled seasonal prediction will also be reviewed, and the value of seasonal prediction in weather-risk reduction will be discussed.
Programme
Presentations
| Monday 3 September | |
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Opening E Källén (ECMWF) |
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Session 1: Basic principles |
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History of seasonal prediction Dave Anderson (UK) |
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ENSO and ENSO teleconnections Peter Webster and Hyemi Kim (Georgia Tech) |
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Ocean-atmosphere coupling in mid-latitudes Arnaud Czaja (Imperial College, UK) |
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Indo/Pacific teleconnections Franco Molteni (ECMWF) |
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| Tuesday 4 September | |
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Session 2: Reliability, calibration and validation of seasonal forecasts |
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Do statistical prediction schemes trade resolution for reliability? Simon Mason (IRI, US) |
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Calibration and validation of seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti (ECMWF) |
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Session 3: Use and application of seasonal forecasts |
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The use of seasonal climate predictions in South America Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil) |
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Use of seasonal prediction in Australia Oscar Alves (BMRC, Australia) |
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Seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon: science and applications to Indian agriculture Sulochana Gadgil (Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore, India) |
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Monthly and seasonal forecasts in the French power sector Laurent Dubus (EDF, France) |
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| Wednesday 5 September | |
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Session 4: Advancing the state of art |
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Initial conditions for hindcasts and operational forecasts Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF) |
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Convection Peter Bechtold (ECMWF) |
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Stratosphere-troposphere interaction and European seasonal prediction Adam Scaife (UK MetOffice, UK) |
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Role of land-surface processes for seasonal predictions Sonia Seneviratne (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
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Sources of intraseasonal to interannual predictability over the North Atlantic/Europe region Christophe Cassou (CNRS Toulouse, France) |
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| Thursday 6 September | |
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Stochastic parametrisation and reliable seasonal prediction Tim Palmer (ECMWF/Oxford Univ) |
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Aerosols and their seasonal variability Annica Ekman (Stockholm Univ, Sweden) |
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High resolution efforts Yuhei Takaya (JMA, Japan) |
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Mechanisms for predictability of Arctic sea ice Cecilia Bitz (Univ Washington) |
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Session 5: Systems and users' needs |
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Use of dynamical seasonal forecasts in the consensus outlooks of African Regional Climate Outlook Forums Richard Graham (Met Office, UK) |
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The EUROSIP system Tim Stockdale (ECMWF) |
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| Friday 7 September | |
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The CFSv2 model in context of the US National MME for seasonal prediction Suru Saha (NCEP, USA) |
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Multi Model Ensemble seasonal prediction of APEC Climate Center Jin-Ho Yoo (APCC, Korea) |
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Developing reliable seasonal forecasts for the developed and developing world: needs and opportunities for international coordination Michel Jarraud (WMO) |
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Closing Erland Källén (ECMWF) |
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Proceedings
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The development of seasonal prediction Dave Anderson (UK) |
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Initialization techniques in seasonal forecasts Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF) |
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Convections and the tropics Peter Bechtold (ECMWF) |
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Sources of intraseasonal to interannual predictability over the North Atlantic/Europe region Christophe Cassou (CNRS Toulouse, France) |
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The use of seasonal climate predictions in South America Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil) |
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|
Ocean-atmosphere coupling in mid-latitudes: does it invigorate or damp the storm track? Arnaud Czaja (Imperial College, UK) |
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Monthly and seasonal forecasts in the French power sector Laurent Dubus (EDF, France) |
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Aerosols and their seasonal variability: are aerosols important for seasonal prediction? Annica Ekman (Stockholm Univ, Sweden) |
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Calibration and validation of seasonal forecasts Laura Ferranti (ECMWF) |
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Seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon: science and applications Sulochana Gadgil (Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore, India) |
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Use of dynamical seasonal forecast in the consensus outlooks of African Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Richard Graham (Met Office, UK) |
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Seasonal forecasts: needs and opportunities for international coordination Michel Jarraud (WMO) |
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ENSO and ENSO teleconnections Peter Webster and Hyemi Kim (Georgia Tech) |
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So statistical models trade resolution for reliability? Simon Mason (IRI, US) |
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Understanding teleconnections with the Indo-Pacific region during the northern winter Tim Stockdale (ECMWF) |
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On the reliability of seasonal forecasts Tim Palmer (ECMWF/Oxford Univ) |
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NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) in the context fo the US National Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) for Seasonal Prediction Suru Saha (NCEP, USA) |
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Role of land-surface processes for seasonal predictions Sonia Seneviratne (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
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The EUROSIP system - a multi-model approach Tim Stockdale (ECMWF) |
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High resolution efforts Yuhei Takaya (JMA, Japan) |
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