Annual seminar 2012: Seasonal prediction

The annual seminar on seasonal prediction happened between 3 to 7 September 2012 at ECMWF.

Description

In the past decade, ensemble-based, probabilistic seasonal forecasts have become more accurate and reliable, building on the continuous improvements of coupled atmosphere and ocean modelling, and on advances in the simulation of initial and model uncertainties. Seasonal prediction systems are now part of routine operational suites at leading numerical weather prediction centres, and seasonal forecasts are increasingly used in a range of applications to improve weather-associated risk management (e.g. to prevent losses due to severe flood and drought conditions, and to prepare for health-related emergencies).

The seminar will give a pedagogical review of the principles behind seasonal predictions. Recent scientific developments in probabilistic, coupled seasonal prediction will also be reviewed, and the value of seasonal prediction in weather-risk reduction will be discussed.

Programme

PDF iconAnnex I: Participants

PDF iconAnnex II: Programme

Presentations

Monday 3 September  

Opening

E Källén (ECMWF)

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Session 1: Basic principles
 

History of seasonal prediction

Dave Anderson (UK)

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ENSO and ENSO teleconnections

Peter Webster and Hyemi Kim (Georgia Tech)

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Ocean-atmosphere coupling in mid-latitudes

Arnaud Czaja (Imperial College, UK)

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Indo/Pacific teleconnections

Franco Molteni (ECMWF)

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Tuesday 4 September  
Session 2: Reliability, calibration and validation of seasonal forecasts
 

Do statistical prediction schemes trade resolution for reliability?

Simon Mason (IRI, US)

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Calibration and validation of seasonal forecasts

Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)

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Session 3: Use and application of seasonal forecasts
 

The use of seasonal climate predictions in South America

Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil)

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Use of seasonal prediction in Australia

Oscar Alves (BMRC, Australia)

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Seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon: science and applications to Indian agriculture

Sulochana Gadgil (Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore, India)

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Monthly and seasonal forecasts in the French power sector

Laurent Dubus (EDF, France)

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Wednesday 5 September  
Session 4: Advancing the state of art
 

Initial conditions for hindcasts and operational forecasts

Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF)

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Convection

Peter Bechtold (ECMWF)

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Stratosphere-troposphere interaction and European seasonal prediction

Adam Scaife (UK MetOffice, UK)

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Role of land-surface processes for seasonal predictions

Sonia Seneviratne (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

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Sources of intraseasonal to interannual predictability over the North Atlantic/Europe region

Christophe Cassou (CNRS Toulouse, France)

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Thursday 6 September  

Stochastic parametrisation and reliable seasonal prediction

Tim Palmer (ECMWF/Oxford Univ)

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Aerosols and their seasonal variability

Annica Ekman (Stockholm Univ, Sweden)

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High resolution efforts

Yuhei Takaya (JMA, Japan)

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Mechanisms for predictability of Arctic sea ice

Cecilia Bitz (Univ Washington)

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Session 5: Systems and users' needs
 

Use of dynamical seasonal forecasts in the consensus outlooks of African Regional Climate Outlook Forums

Richard Graham (Met Office, UK)

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The EUROSIP system

Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

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Friday 7 September  

The CFSv2 model in context of the US National MME for seasonal prediction

Suru Saha (NCEP, USA)

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Multi Model Ensemble seasonal prediction of APEC Climate Center

Jin-Ho Yoo (APCC, Korea)

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Developing reliable seasonal forecasts for the developed and developing world: needs and opportunities for international coordination

Michel Jarraud (WMO)

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Closing

Erland Källén (ECMWF)

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Proceedings

The development of seasonal prediction

Dave Anderson (UK)

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Initialization techniques in seasonal forecasts

Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF)

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Convections and the tropics

Peter Bechtold (ECMWF)

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Sources of intraseasonal to interannual predictability over the North Atlantic/Europe region

Christophe Cassou (CNRS Toulouse, France)

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The use of seasonal climate predictions in South America

Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil)

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Ocean-atmosphere coupling in mid-latitudes: does it invigorate or damp the storm track?

Arnaud Czaja (Imperial College, UK)

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Monthly and seasonal forecasts in the French power sector

Laurent Dubus (EDF, France)

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Aerosols and their seasonal variability: are aerosols important for seasonal prediction?

Annica Ekman (Stockholm Univ, Sweden)

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Calibration and validation of seasonal forecasts

Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)

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Seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon: science and applications

Sulochana Gadgil (Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore, India)

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Use of dynamical seasonal forecast in the consensus outlooks of African Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)

Richard Graham (Met Office, UK)

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Seasonal forecasts: needs and opportunities for international coordination

Michel Jarraud (WMO)

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ENSO and ENSO teleconnections

Peter Webster and Hyemi Kim (Georgia Tech)

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So statistical models trade resolution for reliability?

Simon Mason (IRI, US)

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Understanding teleconnections with the Indo-Pacific region during the northern winter

Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

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On the reliability of seasonal forecasts

Tim Palmer (ECMWF/Oxford Univ)

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NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) in the context fo the US National Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) for Seasonal Prediction

Suru Saha (NCEP, USA)

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Role of land-surface processes for seasonal predictions

Sonia Seneviratne (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

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The EUROSIP system - a multi-model approach

Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

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High resolution efforts

Yuhei Takaya (JMA, Japan)

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Local information


You can also see an archive of past workshops

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