Workshop on the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

Between 8 and 10 March 2004 ECMWF hosted the International Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) Workshop. The workshop was organized under the auspices and with the help of NOAA, ECMWF, WCRP/GEWEX, IAHS/PUB and WMO/HWR.

Description

The main objective of HEPEX is to bring the international hydrological community together with the meteorological community to demonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence by the emergency management and water resources sectors to make decisions that have important consequences for the economy, for public health and safety.

Representatives of operational hydrological services and operational water resources agencies are expected to participate in helping to define and execute the project. HEPEX' objective can be achieved if the meteorological, hydrological and water resources communities understand the key challenges they face and work together both to couple currently available forecasts tools and to improve the current quality of available systems.

Programme

PDF iconProposal

PDF iconParticipants

PDF iconProgramme

Presentations

Session 1: Introduction  

Introductions and Workshop Objectives

Roberto Buizza and John Schaake

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Introduction to HEPEX

Soroosh Sorooshian

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Session 2: User Perspectives  

The European Flood Forecasting System

Paolo Reggaini

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Ensemble-based predictions of climate

Martin Best

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Operational hydrologic ensemble forecasting

Rob Hartman

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Ensemble optimization for hydroelectric operations

Chuck Howard

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New York Power Authority Niagara Power Project

Richard Mueller

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BC Hydro ESP forecasting

Eric Weiss

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Hydro Quebec

Noël Dacruz Evora

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Hydrometeorological forecasts for hydropower generation

Pierre Bernard

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Session 3: Organizational Perspectives: Very brief statements concerning possible organizational interest in HEPEX  

Some Thoughts About Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX)

Soroosh Sorooshian

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IAHS/PUB

Jim Wallace

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AHS/GEWEX/WRAP

Alan Hall

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GEWEX/GAPP

Jin Huang

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WMO

Wolfgang Grabs

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ECMWF

Philippe Bougeault

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NASA

Christa Peters-Lidard

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NOAA/NWS/AHPS

John Schaake

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Canadian WMIG

Richard Mueller

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CUASHI

Rick Hooper

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THORPEX/WWRP

Zoltan Toth

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USWRP

Bob Gall

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Session 4: Weather and Climate Ensemble Prediction  

Introduction to Ensemble Forecasting

Tom Hamill 

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Flood prediction with the ECMWF EPS

Roberto Buizza

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NCEP Ensemble Prediction

Zoltan Toth

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Hydrological ensemble forecasting at the Met Office

Brian Golding

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SMHI

Per Kallberg

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Assessment of Ensemble Forecasts

Steve Mullen

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Ensemble forecasts in the European Flood Alert System

Ad de Roo

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COSMO-LEPS Ensemble Prediction System

Chiara Marsigli

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Precipitation verification

Anna Ghelli

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Parameterization of moist processes

Glenn Shutts

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Canada's Meteorological Ensemble Prediction System

Gilbert Brunet

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Operational short-term flood forecasting for Bangladesh

Tim Palmer

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Session 5: Hydrological Ensemble Prediction  

Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting

Rob Hartman

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Results of the EFFS Project

Paolo Reggiani

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CEH Ensemble hydrological forecasting

Bob Moore

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Hydrologic forecast model uncertainty issues

Hoshin Gupta

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GSFC's land data assimilation systems

Christa Peters-Lidard

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Land data assimilation at NCEP

Dag Lohmann

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Seasonal hydrological forecast system for the Western U.S.

Andy Wood

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Case studies of the August 2002 Danube flood

Gabor Balint

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Ensemble forecasts for the Po Basin Flood of 2000

Pedro Viterbo

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Ensemble forecast verification

Allen Bradley

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USWRP and HEPEX

Bob Gall

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Miscellaneous presentations

Group 1: Meteorological Aspects of Ensemble Prediction
 

Quantifying EPS forecast skill

Daniel Schertzer

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Group 2: Hydrological Aspects of Ensemble Prediction
 

Hydrological ensemble prediction plans at the SMHI

Barbro Johansson

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Hydrological ensemble forecasts for Belgium

Emmanuel Roulin

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Use of ensemble forecasts for flood warning in Central Europe

Peter Krahe

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Operational flood forecasting system in Lower Austria

Günter Blöschl

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Ensemble forecast verification

Kristie Franz

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Bayesian combination of analogs and ensemble forecasts

Ezio Todini

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Evaluation of uncertainty propagation

Jost von Hardenberg

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Group 3: Data Assimilation
 
Group 4: Hydrological Modeling
 

Identification of parameter dominance

Praveen Kumar

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Choice of rainfall-runoff

Eric Gaume

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Geomorphologic - MonteCarlo models of hydrologic response

Michele Ferri

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Monitoring of the water budget over France

Florence Habets

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Non-stationary and non-linear analysis, and prediction of hydroclimatic variables of Africa

Thian Yew Gan

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Representative elementary watershed modeling

Paolo Reggiani

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Working groups

Working group introductions -
Group 1: Meteorological Aspects of Ensemble Prediction PDF icon
Group 2: Hydrological Aspects of Ensemble Prediction PDF icon
Group 3: Data Assimilation PDF icon
Group 4: Hydrological Modeling PDF icon
Group 5: User roles in HEPEX PDF icon
Group 6: Community hydrological prediction system (CHPS) PDF icon
Group 7: Organization of framework for HEPEX PDF icon
Group 8: Contributions and future activities PDF icon
Group 9: Science and implementation strategies PDF icon
Group 10: Education/user applications/product development PDF icon

 

Local information


You can also see an archive of past workshops

View full calendar of events