Annual seminar on predictability of weather and climate

The one week seminar on Predictability of Weather and Climate was held from 9 to 13 September 2002.

Description

The purpose of the Seminar was to give a pedagogical overview of current issues in predictability studies for both the mid-latitudes and the tropics, and on a wide range of time scales from short-range through medium-range to seasonal time-scales and beyond.

In addition to theoretical presentations, there were thorough discussion of the methodology of ensemble predictions, including the choices available in formulating the initial perturbations, and the choices available in dealing with uncertainties in model formulation. Verification issues were also be discussed.

Recent developments in data assimilation of relevance to ensemble forecasting were presented, including the implementation of physics in 4D-Var and in singular vector calculations, and the development of a reduced rank Kalman filter.

Proceedings

Model error in weather and climate forecasting

M Allen

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Assessment of the status of global ensemble prediction

R Buizza

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The Liouville equation in atmospheric predictability

M Ehrendorfer

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Optimal state estimation using balanced truncation

B F Farrell

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DEMETER and the application of seasonal forecasts

R Hagedorn

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Ensemble-based data assimilation

T M Hamill

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Predictability from a dynamical meteorology perspective

B Hoskins

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Applications of generalized stability theory to deterministic and statistical prediction

P J Ioannou

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Data assimilation via local Ensemble Kalman Filtering

E Kalnay

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Breeding and predictability in coupled Lorenz models

E Kalnay

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Superensemble forecasts for weather and climate

T N Krishnamurti

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Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings?

F Lalaurette

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Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation.

M Latif

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On the predictability of flow-regime properties on interannual to interdecadal timescales

F Molteni

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Predictability from a forecast provider's perspective

K Mylne

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Predictability of weather and climate: from theory to practice - from days to decades

T N Palmer

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Predictability and economic value

D S Richardson

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Predictability past predictability present

L A Smith

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Predictability and targeted observations

A Thorpe

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Short-to-medium-range limited-area ensemble prediction: the LEPS system

S Tibaldi

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Predictability of coupled processes

A Timmermann

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Local information


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