Week-by-week weather conditions over the coming 46 days
Our sub-seasonal-range forecasts (previously known as extended-range and monthly forecasts) provide an overview of potential weather conditions up to 46 days ahead. They focus mainly on average conditions week by week and how different they are from a long-term (model-based) climatology. For example, charts show if the average conditions over a week are predicted to be colder or warmer than normal for that time of year.
The sub-seasonal-range forecasts are produced daily and have a horizontal resolution of around 36 km.
Predictability in the sub-seasonal range
The state of the oceans and the top part of the Earth's land masses can vary relatively slowly, providing a potential source of predictability in the sub-seasonal range through their interaction with the atmosphere. Variations in the stratosphere may also play a role. In addition, the sub-seasonal time range is short enough that the atmosphere still has some memory of its initial conditions.