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Weather prediction in a world of uncertainties: should we care about model uncertainty?

Author

Roberto Buizza

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79559-weather-prediction-world-uncertainties-should-we-care-about-model-uncertainty.pdf

Stochastic parametrisation models for GFD

Author

Darryl Holm

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79560-stochastic-parametrisation-models-gfd.pdf

A weather-system perspective on forecast errors

Author

Heinli Wernli

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79561-weather-system-perspective-forecast-errors.pdf

New coviariance statistics of model error for use in weak-constraint 4DVar

Author

Jacky Goddard

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79562-new-coviariance-statistics-model-error-use-weak-constraint-4dvar.pdf

Diagnosing systematic numerical weather prediction model bias over the Antarctic from short-term forecast tendencies

Author

Steven Cavallo

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79563-diagnosing-systematic-numerical-weather-prediction-model-bias-over-antarctic-short-term.pdf

Using forecast temporal variability to evaluate model behaviour

Author

Carolyn Reynolds

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79564-using-forecast-temporal-variability-evaluate-model-behaviour.pdf

Model uncertainty representations in the IFS

Author

Pirkka Ollinaho

Anton Beljaars

Thomas Haiden

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79565-model-uncertainty-representations-ifs.pdf

Representing model error in the Met Office convection permitting ensemble prediction system

Author

Anne McCabe

Richard Swinbank

Warren Tennant

Sarah-Jane Lock

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79566-representing-model-error-met-office-convection-permitting-ensemble-prediction-system.pdf

Model Uncertainty Representation in COSMO-DE-EPS

Author

Susanne Theis

Michael Buchhold

Christoph Gebhardt

Regina Kohlhepp

Andreas Röpnack

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79567-model-uncertainty-representation-cosmo-de-eps.pdf

Model uncertainty estimation in global ocean models: Stochastic parametrizations of ocean mixing

Author

Stephan Juricke

Tim Palmer

Antje Weisheimer

Laure Zanna

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79568-model-uncertainty-estimation-global-ocean-models-stochastic-parametrizations-ocean-mixing.pdf

Representing model uncertainty for climate forecasts

Author

Antje Weisheimer

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79569-representing-model-uncertainty-climate-forecasts.pdf

Impact of a stochastic deep convection scheme using cellular automata in the meso-scale ensemble prediction system; Harmon-EPS

Author

Lisa Bengtsson

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79570-impact-stochastic-deep-convection-scheme-using-cellular-automata-meso-scale-ensemble.pdf

Parameter uncertainty of chaotic systems

Author

Heikki Haario

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79571-parameter-uncertainty-chaotic-systems.pdf

Inducing Tropical Cyclones to Undergo Brownian Motion

Author

Daniel Hodyss

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79572-inducing-tropical-cyclones-undergo-brownian-motion.pdf

Exploring EC-Earth 3.2-Beta performance on the new ECMWF Cray-Broadwell

Author

Souhail Boussetta

Cristian Simarro

D. Lucas

2016, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

16377-exploring-ec-earth-32-beta-performance-new-ecmwf-cray-broadwell.pdf

UEF2016: Shaping future approaches to evaluating high impact weather forecasts

Author

David Richardson

2016, Presentation

File

16383-uef2016-shaping-future-approaches-evaluating-high-impact-weather-forecasts.pdf

UEF2016: Future Earth System model and assimilation developments

Author

Erland Kallen

2016, Presentation

File

16384-uef2016-future-earth-system-model-and-assimilation-developments.pdf

UEF2016: Recent progress in forecast system development

Author

Erik Andersson

2016, Presentation

File

16385-uef2016-recent-progress-forecast-system-development.pdf

Prediction and verification of extremes

Author

Petra Friederichs

2016, Presentation

File

16417-prediction-and-verification-extremes.pdf

The experience of Met Eireann (The Irish Meteorological Service) with a new storm naming system for Winter 2015 – 2016

Author

Gerard Murphy

2016, Presentation

File

16418-experience-met-eireann-irish-meteorological-service-new-storm-naming-system-winter-2015-2016.pdf

Going After High-Impact Compound Events: The Coastal-Alert-Risk (CoastAlRisk) Project of Joint Research Center

Author

Thomas Petroliagis

2016, Presentation

File

16419-going-after-high-impact-compound-events-coastal-alert-risk-coastalrisk-project-joint-research.pdf

Verification of Relative-Extreme Events

Author

Michael Sharpe

2016, Presentation

File

16420-verification-relative-extreme-events.pdf

Global Hazard Map evaluation: comparing forecast high-impact weather events against records of socio-economic impacts

Author

Joanne Robbins

2016, Presentation

File

16421-global-hazard-map-evaluation-comparing-forecast-high-impact-weather-events-against-records.pdf

Update on ECMWF forecast performance

Author

Thomas Haiden

2016, Presentation

File

16422-update-ecmwf-forecast-performance.pdf

Search ECMWF publications

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Weather prediction in a world of uncertainties: should we care about model uncertainty?

Stochastic parametrisation models for GFD

A weather-system perspective on forecast errors

New coviariance statistics of model error for use in weak-constraint 4DVar

Diagnosing systematic numerical weather prediction model bias over the Antarctic from short-term forecast tendencies

Using forecast temporal variability to evaluate model behaviour

Model uncertainty representations in the IFS

Representing model error in the Met Office convection permitting ensemble prediction system

Model Uncertainty Representation in COSMO-DE-EPS

Model uncertainty estimation in global ocean models: Stochastic parametrizations of ocean mixing

Representing model uncertainty for climate forecasts

Impact of a stochastic deep convection scheme using cellular automata in the meso-scale ensemble prediction system; Harmon-EPS

Parameter uncertainty of chaotic systems

Inducing Tropical Cyclones to Undergo Brownian Motion

Exploring EC-Earth 3.2-Beta performance on the new ECMWF Cray-Broadwell

UEF2016: Shaping future approaches to evaluating high impact weather forecasts

UEF2016: Future Earth System model and assimilation developments

UEF2016: Recent progress in forecast system development

Prediction and verification of extremes

The experience of Met Eireann (The Irish Meteorological Service) with a new storm naming system for Winter 2015 – 2016

Going After High-Impact Compound Events: The Coastal-Alert-Risk (CoastAlRisk) Project of Joint Research Center

Verification of Relative-Extreme Events

Global Hazard Map evaluation: comparing forecast high-impact weather events against records of socio-economic impacts

Update on ECMWF forecast performance

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