The meeting was held at ECMWF, Reading, UK on 4 - 6 June 2014
Description
Working together to address weather forecasting challenges
"Using ECMWF's Forecasts" provides a forum for exchanging ideas and experiences on the use of ECMWF data and products. It is an opportunity for users to provide feedback to ECMWF on forecast performance and on our range of products, and for ECMWF to update users on recent developments of the forecasting system.
The meeting is open to ECMWF forecast users in Europe and around the world. The focus in 2014 is on weather forecasting challenges and how ECMWF, NWP centres and forecasters can respond to them.
Thematic areas
The main thematic areas covered during the meeting were:
Seamless forecasts and uncertainty
This session invites papers on all forecast ranges from medium to seasonal, with an emphasis on extended range forecasts (i.e. to one month ahead). Studies of predictability of the atmosphere and the associated uncertainty are welcomed. Emphasis will be given to papers discussing key sources of predictability. We encourage also reference to decisions that rely on forecasts at these time ranges and we will discuss how to best provide the information to the users.
Severe weather
Forecasting severe weather events has become a central part of the work in weather forecasting, and as such accurate model data and customized products are an essential part of the daily duties. The purpose of this session is to explore the use of ECMWF data and products for severe weather forecasts and warnings, up to day 10. Papers discussing the performance of the ECMWF forecasting system are welcomed in this session.
Integrating NWP data into weather impact applications
Accurate NWP forecasts and enhanced impact models mean improved protection of life to minimize the effect of adverse weather. The session invites contributions on weather-based applications driven by NWP data that look at ways to mitigate risks associated to high-impact weather. Papers discussing the use of ECMWF's meteorological data for humanitarian purposes are also welcome.
NWP developments
This session invites papers on general NWP model developments that need to be addressed to support the challenges in weather forecasting, across all time ranges.
Programme
Presentations
| Integrating NWP data into weather impact models | |
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Strengthening forecasting services in developing countries Daniel Kull (The World Bank Group) |
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Increasing the limits of predictability of floods by using NWP ensemble forecasts Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF) |
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TIGGE in applications Ervin Zsoter (ECMWF) |
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The use and usability of probabilistic forecasts: emerging themes from an interdisciplinary study Ana Lopez and Sophie Haines (University of Oxford) |
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| Severe weather | |
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Severe weather events… from a NMS perspective François Lalaurette (Météo-France) |
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New initiatives for Severe Weather prediction at ECMWF Tim Hewson (ECMWF) |
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Verification of extreme events in numerical weather prediction Thomas Haiden (ECMWF) |
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Forecasting tropical cyclones Nicole Girardot (Météo-France) |
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Severe Weather Warning System at the Austrian Meteorological Service (ZAMG) Christian Csekits (Austrian Meteorological Service (ZAMG) |
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Improving wind gust and precipitation form forecasts by post-processing ECMWF data Ari-Juhani Punkka (Finnish Meteorological Institute) |
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Investigation of the accuracy of "Košava" wind forecasting using different ECMWF product Nevena Zivanovic (Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia) |
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| Seamless forecast and uncertainty | |
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Long range forecasting: Drivers of Predictability and how to model them Anna Maidens (Met Office) |
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Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF and links with international programmes Franco Molteni (ECMWF) |
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Long range predictability of winter circulation Tim Stockdale (ECMWF) |
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Seamless use of ECMWF and Met Office NWP Ken Mylne (Met Office) |
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Ongoing developments in the use of extended range and seasonal forecasts at MeteoSwiss Christoph Spirig (MeteoSwiss) |
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| NWP developments | |
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Developments of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System David Richardson (ECMWF) |
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Experimentations with the COSMO-based ensemble systems in the framework of C-SRNWP collaboration Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA SIMC) |
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Introducing inland water bodies and coastal areas in ECMWF forecasting system Gianpaolo Balsamo (ECMWF) |
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Impact of sea surface temperature on COSMO forecasts of a Medicane over the western Mediterranean Sea Vito Romaniello (INGV) |
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ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis (ERA) products David Tan (ECMWF) |
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Posters
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MACC-II: forecasting atmospheric composition and air quality Angela Benedetti (ECMWF) |
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Heat waves predictability at extended range forecast Laura Ferranti (ECMWF) |
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Use of BUFR radiosonde and surface observations in NWP Bruce Ingleby (ECMWF) |
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Long range forecasting: Drivers of predictability and how to model them Anna Maidens (The Met Office) |
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What is the Forecaster’s added value with respect to NWP ? Michel Matter (Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss) |
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Integrating NWP data into weather impact applications Jean Neméghaire (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMIB)) |
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The intense snowfall of 31 January – 2 February 2014 on the eastern Alps: a subjective and objective experience for a challenging forecast of the (weak) border between snowfall and rainfall Sergio Nordio (OSMER) |
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We cannot escape probabilities Anders Persson (Swedish Meteorological Society) |
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Investigation of the accuracy of extreme precipitation forecasting using different ECMWF model parameters Tijana Radović (Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia) |
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Predicting the windstorm “Christian” from 28 Oct 2013 Thomas Schumann (Deutscher Wetterdienst) |
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A case study for Unprecedented Storm in Turkey in 2012 Levent Yalcin and Huseyin Yuksel Ozalp (Turkish State Meteorological Office) |
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