Atmospheric Model high resolution 15-day forecast (HRES)

Single prediction that uses

observations prior information about the Earth-system ECMWF's highest-resolution model

HRES Direct model output Products offers "High Frequency products"  

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A vast amount of data is archived daily containing IFS (Integrated Forecast System) experiments produced by ECMWF's Research Department or by Member States' users at ECMWF. Basically, an experiment can address any area of meteorology and it is archived accordingly. Users wanting to retrieve Research experiments need to know in advance the name of the specific experiment and its nature. For this information please, contact User Support.

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Single prediction that uses

observations prior information about the Earth-system ECMWF's highest-resolution model

HRES Direct model output Products offers "High Frequency products"  

4 forecast runs per day (00/06/12/18) (see dissemination schedule for details) Hourly steps to step 90 for all four runs.

Not all post-processed Products are available at 06/18 runs or in hourly steps.

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The sub-seasonal products comprise ensembles of individual forecasts up to 46 days and post-processed products of average conditions (e.g. weekly averages) and the associated uncertainty.

The purchase of the "Basic Set" +72, +96, +120, +144, +168 hrs is a mandatory prerequisite for the purchase of time steps in the range 12 to 66 hours.

The following sub-sets are available from the sub-seasonal forecast (46 days):

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A meso-scale ensemble system focusing on short range probabilistic forecasts and profiting from advanced multi-scale ALARO physics. Its main purpose is to provide probabilistic forecast on daily basis for the national weather services of RC LACE partners. It also serves as a reliable source of probabilistic information applied to downstream hydrology and energy industry.

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It is the Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on COSMO-model and implemented within COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale Modelling, including Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Switzerland) implemented and maintained by Arpae-SIMC.

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Each country's experiments can be accessed via the links below:

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These seasonal data comprises ensembles of individual forecasts coupled to an ocean model and post-processed products of average conditions (e.g. monthly averages) with the associated uncertainty. Products are available for forecast month 8-13, each quarter (February, May, August, November).

The following sub-sets are available:

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HIRETYCS is the High Resolution Ten Year Climate Simulation. This data set consist of 10-year climate simulations produced at three centres: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Max-Planck Institute (MPI) and United Kingdom Met Office.

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ECMWF is a participant in the Development of a European Land Data Assimilation System to predict Floods and Droughts (ELDAS) project funded by the European Union.

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European Reanalysis and Observations for Monitoring project is a EU funded project that provides timely and reliable information about the state and evolution of the European climate. It combines observations from satellites, ground-based stations and results from comprehensive model-based regional reanalyses. By closely monitoring European climate, climate variability and change can be better understood and predicted.

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ecCharts

This licence provides access to ECMWF interactive ecCharts tool to visualise analysis and forecast products  Please note that access to the ecCharts is for End User use only (internal).  

ECMWF ecCharts web service is available and we are pleased to be able to offer the service for evaluation to customers of ECMWF's web products.

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Ensemble forecast runs produced by the ECMWF Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) Ensemble model.

4 forecast runs per day (00/06/12/18) 6 hourly steps to 360 (15 days)

More information can be found on the implementation page. 

X-i: AIFS ENS forecast

Product description

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On 12 May 2026, a new forecast stream will be produced by ECMWF's operational Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System ensemble model (AIFS ENS).

The new forecast stream is for wave forecast runs, marking ECMWF's first operational data-driven wave forecasts.

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A set of experiments from four centres: ECMWF, Météo-France, EDF and Met Office. The experiments are 120 day runs from 9 consecutive starting days, with write-ups every 24 hours of Pressure level and Surface data.

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The objective of UERRA is to produce ensembles of European regional meteorological reanalyses of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) for several decades and to estimate the associated uncertainties in the data sets. It also includes recovery of historical (last century) data. UERRA datasets come from 5 Numerical Weather Predication models: COSMO, HARMONIE, MESAN, MESCAN-SURFEX and UM/4DVAR.

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A routine inter-comparison of wave model forecast verification data was first established in 1995, developed around the exchange of model forecast data at an agreed list of moored buoy sites at which instrumented observations of significant wave height, wave period and wind speed are available over the WMO GTS.

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Single forecast runs produced by the ECMWF Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) deterministic model.

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On 12 May 2026, a new forecast stream will be produced by ECMWF's operational Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System deterministic model (AIFS Single).

The new forecast stream is for wave forecast runs, marking ECMWF's first operational data-driven wave forecasts.

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Ensemble (ENS) of forecasts providing an estimate of the reliability of a single forecast.

ENS offers  "High Frequency products"  until step 144:

4 daily runs: 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC hourly until step 90 3-hourly from 93 to 144

Most Post-processed Products are not available at 06/18 runs or in hourly steps. An exception are Tropical Cycle tracks (set III-viii) which is available for all daily runs: 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC.

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 CAMS Global atmospheric composition forecast production system is used to produce the daily forecasts of pollutants, aerosols and greenhouse gases across the globe. Satellite observations of atmospheric composition are merged with a detailed computer simulation of the atmosphere using a method called data assimilation. The resulting analyses, i.e.

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A pre-operational Data Targeting System (DTS) was developed to assess the feasibility of operational adaptive control of the observing system and as a facility to aid research projects using data targeting. The DTS was developed and hosted at ECMWF. The work was jointly funded by EUCOS and the EC as part of the PREVIEW Integrated Project (work package WP3320) of the EU 6th Framework Programme.

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The objective of the EU-funded DEMETER project is to develop a well-validated European coupled multi-model ensemble forecast system for reliable seasonal to inter annual prediction. Six comprehensive European global coupled atmosphere-ocean models are being installed at ECMWF, those of: ECMWF, Météo-France, LODYC, Met Office, MPI, INGV, INM-HIRLAM and CERFACS.

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The EU-funded  ENSEMBLES project intends to develop an ensemble prediction system for climate change based on the principal state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal and longer timescales.

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Some Member States also archive output other than from IFS into MARS. One example of such activity is the COSMO-LEPS forecast suite, running daily at ECMWF.

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