Verification of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of wind speed against observations

TitleVerification of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of wind speed against observations
Publication TypeMiscellaneous
Year of Publication2011
AuthorsPinson, P, Hagedorn, R
Secondary TitleTechnical Memorandum
Date PublishedMarch
Type of WorkTechnical Memorandum

A framework for the verification of ensemble forecasts of near-surface wind speed is described. It is based on existing scores and diagnostic tools, though considering observations from synoptic stations as reference instead of the analysis. This approach is motivated by the idea of having a user oriented view of verification, with in mind the wind power application for instance. The verification framework is specifically applied to the case of ECMWF ensemble forecasts and over the Europe area. Dynamic climatologies are derived at the various stations, then serving as a benchmark. The impact of observational uncertainty on scores and diagnostic tools is also considered. The interest of this framework is demonstrated from its application to the routine evaluation of ensemble forecasts and to the assessment of the quality improvements brought in by the recent change in horizontal resolution of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system.