Senior Scientist
Research, Earth System Predictability, Extended Range
Summary:
Steffen is interested in ocean and sea-ice variability and predictability, and how these contribute to predictive skill in an Earth System Model.
Professional interests:
- Subseasonal-to-decadal predictions
- Sea ice modelling, observation and data assimilation
- Ocean–sea-ice–atmosphere interactions
- Ocean reanalysis
- Forecasting in a changing climate
- Polar–lower latitude linkages in weather and seasonal prediction
Career background:
Education
Ph.D., Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Hamburg, Germany (2012). Thesis on “Initialization and predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model”. PhD advisors J. Marotzke, D. Notz, and J. Jungclaus.
Diplom (M.Sc. equivalent) in Physics, University of Potsdam. Potsdam, Germany (2008). Specialization in climate science (S. Rahmstorf) and nonlinear dynamics ( J. Kurths). Thesis on "Destruction of Anderson Localization in nonlinear lattices" (supervised by A. Pikovsky).
Visiting student, University of Warwick. Coventry, UK (2003–2004)
Professional Experience
- Since 08/2016: Senior Scientist, Research Department, ECMWF
- 07/2015–07/2016: Scientist, Research Department, ECMWF
- 02/2015: Visiting Scientist, GFDL, Climate Change, Variability & Prediction Group
- 05/2012–06/2015: PostDoc, NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading
- 01/2012–04/2012: PostDoc, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
- 06/2008–01/2012: Doctoral Student, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
- 2007: Research Assistant, “Statistical Physics/Theory of Chaos” Group, University of Potsdam
External recognitions
- Since 2022: Work package lead for HE ACCIBERG project
- 2019-2021: Work package lead for H2020 KEPLER project
- 2016–2018: Work package lead for H2020 SPICES project
- 2024
- Emma Holmberg, Steffen Tietsche, Gabriele Messori (March 2024) Persistence and the practical predictability of surface temperatures. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-5328
- 2023
- Steffen Tietsche, Frederic Vitart, Michael Mayer, Antje Weisheimer, Magdalena Balmaseda (May 2023) Underestimation of Arctic warming trends in sub-seasonal forecasts. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14141
- Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, Steffen Tietsche, Davide Faranda (May 2023) Diagnosing atmospheric persistence for heatwaves and in extended range forecasts. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7697
- Michael Mayer, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Steffen Tietsche (May 2023) Representation of tropical SST trends in ECMWF seasonal hindcasts and implications for recent ENSO forecasts. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11500
- 2022
- Jonathan Day, Sarah Keeley, Gabriele Arduini, Linus Magnusson, Kristian Mogensen, Mark Rodwell, Irina Sandu, Steffen Tietsche (January 2022) Supplementary material to "Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea-ice for weather forecasts". DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-5-supplement
- Jonathan J. Day, Sarah Keeley, Gabriele Arduini, Linus Magnusson, Kristian Mogensen, Mark Rodwell, Irina Sandu, Steffen Tietsche (July 2022) Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts, Weather and Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022
- Jonathan Day, Sarah Keeley, Gabriele Arduini, Linus Magnusson, Kristian Mogensen, Mark Rodwell, Irina Sandu, Steffen Tietsche (January 2022) Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea-ice for weather forecasts. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-5
- Linus Magnusson, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Mohamed Dahoui, Richard Forbes, Thomas Haiden, David Lavers, irina sandu, Steffen Tietsche (March 2022) Summary of the UGROW subproject on tropospheric temperature bias during JJA over the Northern Hemisphere, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 891. DOI: 10.21957/vsy2iiph
- Yongwu Xiu, Hao Luo, Qinghua Yang, Steffen Tietsche, Jonathan Day, Dake Chen (April 2022) The Challenge of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Prediction by ECMWF on Subseasonal Time Scales, Geophysical Research Letters n. 8. DOI: 10.1029/2021GL097476
- Lorenzo Zampieri, Gabriele Arduini, Marika Holland, Sarah Keeley, Kristian S. Mogensen, Steffen Tietsche (May 2022) A machine learning correction model of the clear-sky bias over the Arctic sea ice in atmospheric reanalyses. DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10511269.1
- Steffen Tietsche, Frederic Vitart, Michael Mayer, Magdalena Balmaseda (June 2022) Multi-year trend errors in sub-seasonal reforecasts. DOI: 10.5194/ems2022-657
- Steffen Tietsche, Frederic Vitart, Magdalena Balmaseda (June 2022) Sub-seasonal Arctic-midlatitude linkages as causal networks. DOI: 10.5194/ems2022-668
- 2021
- Beena Balan-Sarojini, Steffen Tietsche, Michael Mayer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Patricia de Rosnay, Tim Stockdale, Frederic Vitart (January 2021) Year-round impact of winter sea ice thickness observations on seasonal forecasts, The Cryosphere. DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-325-2021
- 2020
- Christine Pohl, Larysa Istomina, Steffen Tietsche, Evelyn Jäkel, Johannes Stapf, Gunnar Spreen, Georg Heygster (January 2020) Broadband albedo of Arctic sea ice from MERIS optical data, The Cryosphere n. 1, pp. 165-182. DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-165-2020
- (August 2020) Recommendations for more user-relevant sea-ice forecasts. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.5761695
- Marko Mäkynen, Jari Haapala, Giuseppe Aulicino, Beena Balan-Sarojini, Magdalena Balmaseda, Alexandru Gegiuc, Fanny Girard-Ardhuin, Stefan Hendricks, Georg Heygster, Larysa Istomina, Lars Kaleschke, Juha Karvonen, Thomas Krumpen, Mikko Lensu, Michael Mayer, FLAVIO PARMIGGIANI, Robert Ricker, Eero Rinne, Amelie Schmitt, Markku Similä, Steffen Tietsche, Rasmus Tonboe, Peter Wadhams, Mai Winstrup, Hao Zuo (April 2020) Satellite Observations for Detecting and Forecasting Sea-Ice Conditions: A Summary of Advances Made in the SPICES Project by the EU’s Horizon 2020 Programme, Remote Sensing. DOI: 10.3390/rs12071214
- Beena Balan-Sarojini, Steffen Tietsche, Michael Mayer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Patricia de Rosnay, Tim Stockdale, Frederic Vitart (May 2020) Year-round Impact of Winter Sea Ice Thickness Observations on Seasonal Forecasts. DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-73
- Steffen Tietsche, Magdalena Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Christopher Roberts, Michael Mayer, Laura Ferranti (October 2020) The importance of North Atlantic Ocean transports for seasonal forecasts, Climate Dynamics n. 7-8, pp. 1995-2011. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05364-6
- 2019
- Beena Balan Sarojini, Steffen Tietsche, Michael Mayer, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Hao Zuo (March 2019) Towards Improved Sea Ice Initialization and Forecasting with the IFS, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 844. DOI: 10.21957/mt6m6rpwt
- Stephanie J. Johnson, Timothy N. Stockdale, Laura Ferranti, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Franco Molteni, Linus Magnusson, Steffen Tietsche, Damien Decremer, Antje Weisheimer, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Sarah P. E. Keeley, Kristian Mogensen, Hao Zuo, Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz (March 2019) SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system, Geoscientific Model Development n. 3, pp. 1087-1117. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-1087-2019
- Hao Zuo, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Steffen Tietsche, Kristian Mogensen, Michael Mayer (June 2019) The ECMWF operational ensemble reanalysis–analysis system for ocean and sea ice: a description of the system and assessment, Ocean Science n. 3, pp. 779-808. DOI: 10.5194/os-15-779-2019
- Frederic Vitart, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Laura Ferranti, Angela Benedetti, Beena Balan Sarojini, Steffen Tietsche, Junchen Yao, Martin Janousek, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Martin Leutbecher, Peter Bechtold, Inna Polichtchouk, David Richardson, Timothy Stockdale, Chris Roberts (November 2019) Extended-range prediction, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 854. DOI: 10.21957/pdivp3t9m
- Joula Siponen, Petteri Uotila, Eero Rinne, Steffen Tietsche (December 2019) Consistent variability but different spatial patterns between observed and reanalysed sea-ice thickness. DOI: 10.5194/tc-2019-272
- Michael Mayer, Steffen Tietsche, Leopold Haimberger, Takamasa Tsubouchi, Johannes Mayer, Hao Zuo (October 2019) An Improved Estimate of the Coupled Arctic Energy Budget, Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0233.1
- 2018
- Uotila P., Goosse H., Haines K., Chevallier M., Barthélemy A., Bricaud C., Carton J., Fučkar N., Garric G., Iovino D., Kauker F., Korhonen M., Lien V.S., Marnela M., Massonnet F., Mignac D., Peterson K.A., Sadikni R., Shi L., Tietsche S., Toyoda T., Xie J., Zhang Z. (October 2018) An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z
- von Schuckmann K., Le Traon P.-Y., Smith N., Pascual A., Brasseur P., Fennel K., Djavidnia S., Aaboe S., Fanjul E.A., Autret E., Axell L., Aznar R., Benincasa M., Bentamy A., Boberg F., Bourdallé-Badie R., Nardelli B.B., Brando V.E., Bricaud C., Breivik L.-A., Brewin R.J.W., Capet A., Ceschin A., Ciliberti S., Cossarini G., de Alfonso M., de Pascual Collar A., de Kloe J., Deshayes J., Desportes C., Drévillon M., Drillet Y., Droghei R., Dubois C., Embury O., Etienne H., Fratianni C., Lafuente J.G., Sotillo M.G., Garric G., Gasparin F., Gerin R., Good S., Gourrion J., Grégoire M., Greiner E., Guinehut S., Gutknecht E., Hernandez F., Hernandez O., Høyer J., Jackson L., Jandt S., Josey S., Juza M., Kennedy J., Kokkini Z., Korres G., Kõuts M., Lagemaa P., Lavergne T., le Cann B., Legeais J.-F., Lemieux-Dudon B., Levier B., Lien V., Maljutenko I., Manzano F., Marcos M., Marinova V., Masina S., Mauri E., Mayer M., Melet A., Mélin F., Meyssignac B., Monier M., Müller M., Mulet S., Naranjo C., Notarstefano G., Paulmier A., Gomez B.P., Pérez Gonzalez I., Peneva E., Perruche C., Peterson K.A., Pinardi N., Pisano A., Pardo S., Poulain P.-M., Raj R.P., Raudsepp U., Ravdas M., Reid R., Rio M.-H., Salon S., Samuelsen A., Sammartino M., Sammartino S., Britt Sandø A., Santoleri R., Sathyendranath S., She J., Simoncelli S., Solidoro C., Stoffelen A., Storto A., Szerkely T., Tamm S., Tietsche S., Tinker J., Tintore J., Trindade A., van Zanten D., Vandenbulcke L., Verhoef A., Verbrugge N., Viktorsson L., von Schuckmann K., Wakelin S.L., Zacharioudaki A., Zuo H. (October 2018) Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Journal of Operational Oceanography. DOI: 10.1080/1755876X.2018.1489208
- Balsamo G., Agusti-Panareda A., Albergel C., Arduini G., Beljaars A., Bidlot J., Bousserez N., Boussetta S., Brown A., Buizza R., Buontempo C., Chevallier F., Choulga M., Cloke H., Cronin M.F., Dahoui M., Rosnay P.D., Dirmeyer P.A., Drusch M., Dutra E., Ek M.B., Gentine P., Hewitt H., Keeley S.P., Kerr Y., Kumar S., Lupu C., Mahfouf J.-F., McNorton J., Mecklenburg S., Mogensen K., Muñoz-Sabater J., Orth R., Rabier F., Reichle R., Ruston B., Pappenberger F., Sandu I., Seneviratne S.I., Tietsche S., Trigo I.F., Uijlenhoet R., Wedi N., Woolway R.I., Zeng X. (October 2018) Satellite and in situ observations for advancing global earth surface modelling: A review, Remote Sensing. DOI: 10.3390/rs10122038
- Marchi S., Fichefet T., Goosse H., Zunz V., Tietsche S., Day J.J., Hawkins E. (October 2018) Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2
- Steffen Tietsche (March 2018) Authors' response to comments of anonymous referees. DOI: 10.5194/tc-2017-247-AC1
- Steffen Tietsche, Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda, Patricia Rosnay, Hao Zuo, Xiangshan Tian-Kunze, Lars Kaleschke (June 2018) Thin Arctic sea ice in L-band observations and an ocean reanalysis, The Cryosphere n. 6, pp. 2051-2072. DOI: 10.5194/tc-12-2051-2018
- Hao Zuo, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Mogensen K., Steffen Tietsche (August 2018) OCEAN5: The ECMWF Ocean Reanalysis System and its Real-Time analysis component, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 823. DOI: 10.21957/la2v0442
- Timothy Stockdale, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Stephanie Johnson, Laura Ferranti, Franco Molteni, Linus Magnusson, Steffen Tietsche, Frederic Vitart, Damien Decremer, Antje Weisheimer, Chris Roberts, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Sarah Keeley, Kristian S. Mogensen, Hao Zuo, Michael Mayer, B.M. Monge-Sanz (November 2018) SEAS5 and the future evolution of the long-range forecast system, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 835. DOI: 10.21957/z3e92di7y
- 2017
- Tietsche S., Balmaseda M.A., Zuo H., Mogensen K. (October 2017) Arctic sea ice in the global eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis ORAP5, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2673-3
- Steffen Tietsche, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Patricia de Rosnay (October 2017) Comparing Arctic winter sea-ice thickness from SMOS and ORAS5, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 803. DOI: 10.21957/rhycas70q
- Steffen Tietsche, Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda, Patricia Rosnay, Hao Zuo, Xiangshan Tian-Kunze, Lars Kaleschke (December 2017) Thin sea ice in the Arctic: comparing L-band radiometry retrievals with an ocean reanalysis. DOI: 10.5194/tc-2017-247
- Steffen Tietsche, Magdalena Balmaseda, Hao Zuo (October 2017) Monitoring thin sea ice in the Arctic, ECMWF newsletter, issue 152, pp. 23-26. DOI: 10.21957/yp392k
- 2016
- Hawkins E., Tietsche S., Day J.J., Melia N., Haines K., Keeley S. (October 2016) Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2643
- Guemas V., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E., Chevallier M., Day J.J., Déqué M., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Fučkar N.S., Germe A., Hawkins E., Keeley S., Koenigk T., Salas y Mélia D., Tietsche S. (October 2016) A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2401
- Tietsche S., Hawkins E., Day J.J. (October 2016) Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate, Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0421.1
- Goessling H.F., Tietsche S., Day J.J., Hawkins E., Jung T. (October 2016) Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067232
- Day J.J., Tietsche S., Collins M., Goessling H.F., Guemas V., Guillory A., Hurlin W.J., Ishii M., Keeley S.P.E., Matei D., Msadek R., Sigmond M., Tatebe H., Hawkins E. (October 2016) The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1, Geoscientific Model Development. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016
- 2015
- Stroeve J., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E., Guemas V., Howell S., Massonnet F., Tietsche S. (October 2015) Improving predictions of arctic sea ice extent, Eos.
- Day J.J., Tietsche S., Collins M., Goessling H.F., Guemas V., Guillory A., Hurlin W.J., Ishii M., Keeley S.P.E., Matei D., Msadek R., Sigmond M., Tatebe H., Hawkins E. (October 2015) The Arctic predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-interannual timescales (APPOSITE) data set, Geoscientific Model Development. DOI: 10.5194/gmdd-8-8809-2015
- Baehr J., Fröhlich K., Botzet M., Domeisen D.I.V., Kornblueh L., Notz D., Piontek R., Pohlmann H., Tietsche S., Müller W.A. (October 2015) The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7
- 2014
- Day J.J., Tietsche S., Hawkins E. (October 2014) Pan-arctic and regional sea ice predictability: Initialization month dependence, Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00614.1
- Day J.J., Hawkins E., Tietsche S. (October 2014) Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061694
- Tietsche S., Day J.J., Guemas V., Hurlin W.J., Keeley S.P.E., Matei D., Msadek R., Collins M., Hawkins E. (October 2014) Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058755
- Steffen Tietsche, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Kristian S. Mogensen (October 2014) Arctic sea ice in the ECMWF MyOcean2 ocean reanalysis ORAP5, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 737. DOI: 10.21957/i9s4wt41
- 2013
- Tietsche S., Notz D., Jungclaus J.H., Marotzke J. (October 2013) Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model-physical and statistical aspects, Ocean Science. DOI: 10.5194/os-9-19-2013
- Tietsche S., Notz D., Jungclaus J.H., Marotzke J. (October 2013) Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1698-8
- Li C., Notz D., Tietsche S., Marotzke J. (October 2013) The transient versus the equilibrium response of sea ice to global warming, Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00492.1
- 2011
- Tietsche S., Notz D., Jungclaus J.H., Marotzke J. (October 2011) Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1029/2010GL045698
- 2008
- Tietsche S., Pikovsky A. (October 2008) Chaotic destruction of Anderson localization in a nonlinear lattice, EPL. DOI: 10.1209/0295-5075/84/10006
- 2007
- Tietsche S., Sapuppo F., Sinn P. (October 2007) Parametric studies on networks of Morris-Lecar neurons, Understanding Complex Systems. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-73159-7_12
Projects:
Contact Details:
steffen.tietsche
ecmwf.int
ecmwf.int