Senior Scientist and Education Officer
Research Department, Earth System Modelling Section, Coupled Processes Group
Summary:
I work at ECMWF as a Scientist and the Educational Officer.
As a scientist I maintain and develop thermodynamic-dynamic sea ice models within our coupled forecast system. This involves coupling and tuning the ice model within the ocean and atmospheric components of the model. I am interested in sea ice and its impacts on predictability.
As the educational officer I coordinate and develop the Research Department Numerical Weather Prediction training courses.
Professional interests:
- Large scale modes of atmospheric variability
- Sea ice and it impact on predictability
- Coupled ocean-atmosphere processes
Career background:
I studied Physics at the University of Oxford, before going to the Meteorology Department at the University of Reading, where I completed my PhD: Climate variability: the effects of doubling carbon dioxide and uncertainty in model predictions.
My main research areas have been on the impacts of large scale teleconnection patterns on various aspects of the climate system. I am currently interested in the impact of sea ice modelling in NWP and its impacts on predictability
- Scientist and Education Officer, ECMWF - responsible for the NWP training courses and coupled sea ice modelling (2011 - )
- NERC Knowledge Exchange Fellowship (40/%FT position) - linking the financial services sector to weather and climate information, focusing in particular on how extended range forecasts could be used (2009-2011)
- Research Fellow, University of Reading - impact of resolution for seasonal forecasting and in particular on the NAO; Arctic climate change and the impacts of sea ice in the climate system (2007 - 2011)
- Senior Research Fellow, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia - impact of Stratospheric Ozone depletion on surface climate (2006-2007)
External recognitions
- Member of the NEMO Sea Ice Working Group
- Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society
- Member of the Institute of Physics
- 2022
- Jonathan Day, Sarah Keeley, Gabriele Arduini, Linus Magnusson, Kristian Mogensen, Mark Rodwell, Irina Sandu, Steffen Tietsche (January 2022) Supplementary material to "Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea-ice for weather forecasts". DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-5-supplement
- Jonathan J. Day, Sarah Keeley, Gabriele Arduini, Linus Magnusson, Kristian Mogensen, Mark Rodwell, Irina Sandu, Steffen Tietsche (July 2022) Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea ice for weather forecasts, Weather and Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-713-2022
- Lorenzo Zampieri, Gabriele Arduini, Marika Holland, Sarah Keeley, Kristian S. Mogensen, Steffen Tietsche (May 2022) A machine learning correction model of the clear-sky bias over the Arctic sea ice in atmospheric reanalyses. DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10511269.1
- Gabriele Arduini, Sarah Keeley, Jonathan J. Day, Irina Sandu, Lorenzo Zampieri, Gianpaolo Balsamo (July 2022) On the Importance of Representing Snow Over Sea‐Ice for Simulating the Arctic Boundary Layer, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems n. 7. DOI: 10.1029/2021MS002777
- Becky Hemingway, Sarah Keeley, Chris Stewart (June 2022) ECMWF’s experiences in virtual training and events. DOI: 10.5194/ems2022-65
- Jonathan Day, Sarah Keeley, Gabriele Arduini, Linus Magnusson, Kristian Mogensen, Mark Rodwell, Irina Sandu, Steffen Tietsche (January 2022) Benefits and challenges of dynamic sea-ice for weather forecasts. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-5
- Steve Delhaye, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Rym Msadek, Svenya Chripko, Christopher Roberts, Sarah Keeley, Retish Senan (May 2022) Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat, Weather and Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022
- Hannah L. Croad, John Methven, Ben Harvey, Sarah P. E. Keeley, Ambrogio Volonté (December 2022) The role of boundary layer processes in summer-time Arctic cyclones. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2022-60
- 2021
- irina sandu, Gabriele Arduini, Jonathan Day, Linus Magnusson, Heather Lawrence, Niels Bormann, Peter Bauer, Sarah Keeley, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Thomas Haiden (July 2021) How APPLICATE contributed to ECMWF core activities, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 168, pp. 24-31. DOI: 10.21957/ir5fk44das
- Steve Delhaye, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Rym Msadek, Svenya Chripko, Christopher Roberts, Sarah Keeley, Retish Senan (December 2021) Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat. DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2021-80
- Steve Delhaye, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Christopher Roberts, Sarah Keeley, Retish Senan, Rym Msadek, Svenya Chripko, Javier García-Serrano, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière (March 2021) Role of the internal climate variability in the atmospheric response to a sudden summer Arctic sea ice loss. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2528
- Jonathan Day, Sarah Keeley, Kristian Mogensen, Steffen Tietsche, Linus Magnusson (March 2021) Benefits of ice-ocean coupling for medium-range forecasts in polar and sub-polar regions. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8054
- 2020
- (July 2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3803
- Steve Delhaye, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Svenya Chripko, Sarah Keeley, Rym Msadek, Christopher Roberts (March 2020) Impact of an abrupt Arctic sea ice loss on the extreme precipitation events in the midlatitudes. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8283
- Keguang Wang, Qun Li, Caixin Wang, Jens Debernard, Sarah Keeley (March 2020) Effect of model initialization and sea ice data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of September Arctic sea ice extent in a coupled ocean-sea ice model. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13429
- 2019
- Gianpaolo Balsamo, Anna Agusti-Panareda, Clément Albergel, Gabriele Arduini, Anton Beljaars, Jean Bidlot, Eleanor Blyth, Nicolas Bousserez, Souhail Boussetta, Andy Brown, Roberto Buizza, Carlo Buontempo, Frédéric Chevallier, Margarita Choulga, Hannah Cloke, Meghan Cronin, Mohamed Dahoui, Patricia de Rosnay, Paul Dirmeyer, Matthias Drusch, Emanuel Dutra, Michael B. Ek, Pierre Gentine, Helene Hewitt, Sarah Keeley, Yann Kerr, SUJAY KUMAR, Cristina Lupu, Jean-Francois Mahfouf, Joe McNorton, Susanne Mecklenburg, Kristian Mogensen, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Rene Orth, Florence Rabier, Rolf Reichle, Ben Ruston, Florian Pappenberger, Irina Sandu, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Steffen Tietsche, Isabel Trigo, Remko Uijlenhoet, Nils Wedi, R. Iestyn Woolway, Xubin Zeng (May 2019) Correction: Balsamo, G., et al. Satellite and In Situ Observations for Advancing Global Earth Surface Modelling: A Review. Remote Sensing 2018, 10(12), 2038; doi:10.3390/rs10122038, Remote Sensing. DOI: 10.3390/rs11080941
- 2018
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2018) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP hist-1950, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4982
- Roberts C.D., Senan R., Molteni F., Boussetta S., Mayer M., Keeley S.P.E. (March 2018) Climate model configurations of the ecmwf integrated forecasting system (ecmwf-ifs cycle 43r1) for highresmip, Geoscientific Model Development. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-3681-2018
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2018) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP spinup-1950, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4997
- (March 2018) Effects of ocean coupling on weather forecasts, ECMWF newsletter.
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2018) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP control-1950, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4946
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2018) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-MR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP control-1950, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4947
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2018) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-MR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP hist-1950, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4983
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2018) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-MR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.2465
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2018) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-MR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP spinup-1950, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4998
- Timothy Stockdale, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Stephanie Johnson, Laura Ferranti, Franco Molteni, Linus Magnusson, Steffen Tietsche, Frederic Vitart, Damien Decremer, Antje Weisheimer, Chris Roberts, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Sarah Keeley, Kristian S. Mogensen, Hao Zuo, Michael Mayer, B.M. Monge-Sanz (December 2018) SEAS5 and the future evolution of the long-range forecast system, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 835. DOI: 10.21957/z3e92di7y
- Gianpaolo Balsamo, Anna Agusti-Panareda, Clément Albergel, Gabriele Arduini, Anton Beljaars, Jean Bidlot, Nicolas Bousserez, Souhail Boussetta, Andy Brown, Roberto Buizza, Carlo Buontempo, Frédéric Chevallier, Margarita Choulga, Hannah Cloke, Meghan Cronin, Mohamed Dahoui, Patricia de Rosnay, Paul Dirmeyer, Emanuel Dutra, Michael B. Ek, Pierre Gentine, Helene Hewitt, Sarah Keeley, Yann Kerr, SUJAY KUMAR, Cristina Lupu, Jean-Francois Mahfouf, Joe McNorton, Susanne Mecklenburg, Kristian Mogensen, Joaquin Muñoz-Sabater, Rene Orth, Florence Rabier, Rolf Reichle, Ben Ruston, Florian Pappenberger, Irina Sandu, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Steffen Tietsche, Isabel Trigo, Remko Uijlenhoet, Nils Wedi, R. Iestyn Woolway, Xubin Zeng (December 2018) Satellite and In Situ Observations for Advancing Global Earth Surface Modelling: A Review, Remote Sensing. DOI: 10.3390/rs10122038
- Sarah Keeley, Kristian S. Mogensen (July 2018) Dynamic sea ice in the IFS, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 156, pp. 23-29. DOI: 10.21957/4ska25furb
- Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Michael Mayer, Sarah Keeley (April 2018) Climate model configurations of the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS cycle 43r1) for HighResMIP. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2018-90
- 2017
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2017) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP highresSST-present, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4976
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2017) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.2463
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2017) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP hist-1950, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4981
- Chevallier M., Smith G.C., Dupont F., Lemieux J.-F., Forget G., Fujii Y., Hernandez F., Msadek R., Peterson K.A., Storto A., Toyoda T., Valdivieso M., Vernieres G., Zuo H., Balmaseda M., Chang Y.-S., Ferry N., Garric G., Haines K., Keeley S., Kovach R.M., Kuragano T., Masina S., Tang Y., Tsujino H., Wang X. (March 2017) Erratum to: Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean–sea ice reanalyses from the ORA-IP project (Clim Dyn, 10.1007/s00382-016-2985-y), Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3155-y
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2017) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP spinup-1950, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4996
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2017) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP control-1950, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4945
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2017) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.2461
- Chris Roberts, R. Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Sarah Keeley (March 2017) ECMWF ECMWF-IFS-HR model output prepared for CMIP6 HighResMIP highresSST-present, Earth System Grid Federation. DOI: 10.22033/esgf/cmip6.4975
- Roberto Buizza, Jean Bidlot, Martin Janousek, Sarah Keeley, Kristian Mogensen, David Richardson (March 2017) New IFS cycle brings sea-ice coupling and higher ocean resolution, ECMWF newsletter, issue 150, pp. 14-17. DOI: 10.21957/xbov3ybily
- 2016
- Day J.J., Tietsche S., Collins M., Goessling H.F., Guemas V., Guillory A., Hurlin W.J., Ishii M., Keeley S.P.E., Matei D., Msadek R., Sigmond M., Tatebe H., Hawkins E. (March 2016) The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1, Geoscientific Model Development. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016
- Guemas V., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth E., Chevallier M., Day J.J., Déqué M., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Fučkar N.S., Germe A., Hawkins E., Keeley S., Koenigk T., Salas y Mélia D., Tietsche S. (March 2016) A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2401
- Hawkins E., Tietsche S., Day J.J., Melia N., Haines K., Keeley S. (March 2016) Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2643
- Chevallier M., Smith G.C., Dupont F., Lemieux J.-F., Forget G., Fujii Y., Hernandez F., Msadek R., Peterson K.A., Storto A., Toyoda T., Valdivieso M., Vernieres G., Zuo H., Balmaseda M., Chang Y.-S., Ferry N., Garric G., Haines K., Keeley S., Kovach R.M., Kuragano T., Masina S., Tang Y., Tsujino H., Wang X. (March 2016) Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean–sea ice reanalyses from the ORA-IP project, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-2985-y
- 2015
- Day J.J., Tietsche S., Collins M., Goessling H.F., Guemas V., Guillory A., Hurlin W.J., Ishii M., Keeley S.P.E., Matei D., Msadek R., Sigmond M., Tatebe H., Hawkins E. (March 2015) The Arctic predictability and prediction on seasonal-to-interannual timescales (APPOSITE) data set, Geoscientific Model Development. DOI: 10.5194/gmdd-8-8809-2015
- 2014
- (January 2014) The Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP), Journal of operational oceanography.
- Tietsche S., Day J.J., Guemas V., Hurlin W.J., Keeley S.P.E., Matei D., Msadek R., Collins M., Hawkins E. (March 2014) Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058755
- Guemas V., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Mogensen K., Keeley S., Tang Y. (March 2014) Ensemble of sea ice initial conditions for interannual climate predictions, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2095-7
- Frederic Vitart, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Roberto Buizza, Laura Ferranti, Sarah Keeley, Linus Magnusson, Franco Molteni, Antje Weisheimer (October 2014) Sub-seasonal predictions, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 738. DOI: 10.21957/6lw4xoik8
- 2013
- Ø. Breivik, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Jean Bidlot, Peter A. E. M. Janssen, Sarah Keeley, Mogensen K. (March 2013) Closer together: coupling the wave and ocean models, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 135, pp. 6-7. DOI: 10.21957/ha77zhpn
- Y.M. Tang, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Kristian S. Mogensen, Sarah Keeley, Peter A. E. M. Janssen (October 2013) Sensitivity of sea ice thickness to observational constraints on sea ice concentration, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 707, pp. 27. DOI: 10.21957/7tpksiq16
- Peter A. E. M. Janssen, Ø. Breivik, Kristian S. Mogensen, Frederic Vitart, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Jean Bidlot, Sarah Keeley, Martin Leutbecher, Linus Magnusson, Franco Molteni (December 2013) Air-sea interaction and surface waves, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 712, pp. 34. DOI: 10.21957/0kg73joh
- Hodson D.L.R., Keeley S.P.E., West A., Ridley J., Hawkins E., Hewitt H.T. (March 2013) Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1512-z
- Sarah Keeley (March 2013) Impacts of climate change on Arctic sea-ice, Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP), Lowestoft, UK. DOI: 10.14465/2013.ARC02.013-019
- 2012
- Keeley S.P.E., Sutton R.T., Shaffrey L.C. (March 2012) The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.1912
- Kristian S. Mogensen, Sarah Keeley, P. Towers (May 2012) Coupling of the NEMO and IFS models in a single executable, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 673, pp. 23. DOI: 10.21957/rfplwzuol
- 2011
- Scaife A.A., Copsey D., Gordon C., Harris C., Hinton T., Keeley S., O'Neill A., Roberts M., Williams K. (March 2011) Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049573
- Maycock A.C., Keeley S.P.E., Charlton-Perez A.J., Doblas-Reyes F.J. (March 2011) Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: Implications for seasonal prediction, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0665-x
- 2009
- Keeley S.P.E., Sutton R.T., Shaffrey L.C. (March 2009) Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales?, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1029/2009GL040367
- 2008
- Crook J.A., Gillett N.P., Keeley S.P.E. (March 2008) Sensitivity of Southern Hemisphere climate to zonal asymmetry in ozone, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1029/2007GL032698
- Keeley S.P.E., Collins M., Thorpe A.J. (March 2008) Northern hemisphere winter atmospheric climate: Modes of natural variability and climate change, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-007-0346-6
- 2007
- Keeley S.P.E., Gillett N.P., Thompson D.W.J., Solomon S., Forster P.M. (March 2007) Is Antarctic climate most sensitive to ozone depletion in the middle or lower stratosphere?, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1029/2007GL031238
Contact Details:
sarah.keeley
ecmwf.int
ecmwf.int