Senior Scientist
Forecast Department, Evaluation Section, Diagnostics
Summary:
Mark Rodwell is Coordinator of Diagnostics at ECMWF; the challenge of Diagnostics at the Centre being to evaluate (ensemble) forecast system performance and to help identify issues that could be improved.
Professional interests:
- Diagnostics
- Predictability
- Ensemble data assimilation
- Global circulation
Career background:
Education
- Degree in Pure Mathematics from Cambridge University
- Teaching qualification
- PhD on the Asian Monsoon - supervisor Professor Sir Brian Hoskins FRS
Experience
- The dynamics of monsoons, deserts and subtropical anticyclones
- The predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
- Diagnosis of data assimilation as a means of improving forecast performance
External recognitions
- RMetS Buchan Prize in 2012
- Member of the WMO working group on Predictability, Diagnostics and Ensemble Forecasting
- 2018
- Simpson I.R., Bacmeister J.T., Sandu I., Rodwell M.J. (March 2018) No access why do modeled and observed surface wind stress climatologies differ in the trade wind regions?, Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0255.1
- (March 2018) Flow-dependent reliability: A path to more skillful ensemble forecasts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society n. 5, pp. 1015-1026. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0027.1
- David A. Lavers, Mark J. Rodwell, David S. Richardson, F. Martin Ralph, James D. Doyle, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Vijay Tallapragada, Florian Pappenberger (August 2018) The Gauging and Modeling of Rivers in the Sky, Geophysical Research Letters n. 15, pp. 7828-7834. DOI: 10.1029/2018GL079019
- Mark John Rodwell, Richard Forbes, Heini Wernli (March 2018) Why warm conveyor belts matter in NWP , ECMWF newsletter, issue 154, pp. 21-28. DOI: 10.21957/mr20vg
- Buizza R., Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Andrew Brown, S.J. English, Richard Forbes, Alan Geer, Haiden T., Martin Leutbecher, Linus Magnusson, Mark John Rodwell, M. Sleigh, Timothy Stockdale, Frederic Vitart, Wedi N. (October 2018) The development and evaluation process followed at ECMWF to upgrade the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 829. DOI: 10.21957/xzopnhty9
- 2017
- Alessio Bozzo, S. Remy, Angela Benedetti, Johannes Flemming, Peter Bechtold, Mark John Rodwell, J.-J. Morcrette (March 2017) Implementation of a CAMS-based aerosol climatology in the IFS, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 801. DOI: 10.21957/84ya94mls
- 2016
- Rodwell M.J., Lang S.T.K., Ingleby N.B., Bormann N., Hólm E., Rabier F., Richardson D.S., Yamaguchi M. (March 2016) Reliability in ensemble data assimilation, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2663
- Yamaguchi M., Lang S.T.K., Leutbecher M., Rodwell M.J., Radnoti G., Bormann N. (March 2016) Observation-based evaluation of ensemble reliability, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2675
- Bruce Ingleby, Mark John Rodwell, L. Isaksen (March 2016) Global radiosonde network under pressure, ECMWF newsletter, issue 149, pp. 25-30. DOI: 10.21957/cblxtg
- Mark John Rodwell (March 2016) Using ensemble data assimilation to diagnose flow-dependent forecast reliability, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 146, pp. 29-34. DOI: 10.21957/xaxfw4c6
- 2015
- (March 2015) Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Weather Forecasts in the ECMWF Model, AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts.
- (March 2015) New Developments in the Diagnosis and Verification of High-Impact Weather Forecasts.
- Mark John Rodwell, Laura Ferranti, Thomas Haiden, Linus Magnusson (March 2015) New developments in the diagnosis and verification of high-impact weather forecasts, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 759. DOI: 10.21957/36b0t3mke
- Mark John Rodwell, Laura Ferranti, Linus Magnusson (March 2015) Diagnosis of northern hemispheric regime behaviour during winter 2013/14, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 769. DOI: 10.21957/nec47hhk9
- 2014
- Leroy S.S., Rodwell M.J. (March 2014) Leveraging highly accurate data in diagnosing errors in atmospheric models, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00143.1
- Klocke D., Rodwell M.J. (March 2014) A comparison of two numerical weather prediction methods for diagnosing fast-physics errors in climate models, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2172
- Peter Bechtold, irina sandu, D. Klocke, N. Semane, Maike Ahlgrimm, Anton Beljaars, Richard Forbes, Mark John Rodwell (July 2014) The role of shallow convection in ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 725, pp. 27. DOI: 10.21957/heba1qwem
- 2013
- North R., Trueman M., Mittermaier M., Rodwell M.J. (March 2013) An assessment of the SEEPS and SEDI metrics for the verification of 6h forecast precipitation accumulations, Meteorological Applications. DOI: 10.1002/met.1405
- Rodwell M.J., Magnusson L., Bauer P., Bechtold P., Bonavita M., Cardinali C., Diamantakis M., Earnshaw P., Garcia-Mendez A., Isaksen L., Källén E., Klocke D., Lopez P., McNally T., Persson A., Prates F., Wedi N. (March 2013) Characteristics of occasional poor medium-range weather forecasts for Europe, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00099.1
- Peter Bechtold, Peter Bauer, Jean Bidlot, Carla Cardinali, Magnusson L., Fernando Prates, Mark John Rodwell (March 2013) Uncertainty in tropical winds, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 134, pp. 33-37. DOI: 10.21957/zp9aqpdc
- Peter Bauer, Anton Beljaars, Maike Ahlgrimm, Peter Bechtold, Jean Bidlot, Massimo Bonavita, Alessio Bozzo, Richard Forbes, E. V. Hólm, Martin Leutbecher, Philippe Lopez, Linus Magnusson, F. Prates, Mark John Rodwell, irina sandu, A. Untch, Frederic Vitart (July 2013) Model Cycle 38r2: Components and Performance, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 704, pp. 58. DOI: 10.21957/xc1r0lj6l
- 2012
- Haiden T., Rodwell M.J., Richardson D.S., Okagaki A., Robinson T., Hewson T. (March 2012) Intercomparison of global model precipitation forecast skill in 2010/11 using the SEEPS score, Monthly Weather Review. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00301.1
- (March 2012) Experience with the representation of stable conditions in the ECMWF model, Proc. ECMWF Workshop on Diurnal Cycles and the Stable Boundary Layer.
- Mark John Rodwell, Magnusson L., Peter Bauer, Peter Bechtold, Massimo Bonavita, Carla Cardinali, Michail Diamantakis, P. Earnshaw, Anotonio Garcia-Mendez, L. Isaksen, Källén E., Klocke D., Philippe Lopez, Tony McNally, Persson A., Fernando Prates, Nils Wedi (March 2012) A case study of occasional poor medium-range forecasts for Europe, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 131, pp. 16-24. DOI: 10.21957/ocaqy91i
- Mark John Rodwell, Magnusson L., Peter Bauer, Peter Bechtold, Carla Cardinali, Michail Diamantakis, Källén E., Klocke D., Philippe Lopez, Tony McNally, Persson A., Fernando Prates, Nils Wedi (March 2012) Characteristics of occasional poor medium-range forecasts for Europe, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 131, pp. 11-15. DOI: 10.21957/lnhbsxr4
- Peter Bechtold, Peter Bauer, P. Berrisford, Jean Bidlot, Carla Cardinali, Thomas Haiden, Martin Janousek, D. Klocke, Linus Magnusson, A. McNally, F. Prates, Mark John Rodwell, N. Semane, Frederic Vitart (December 2012) Progress in predicting tropical systems: The role of convection, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 686, pp. 61. DOI: 10.21957/2hbsfji57
- Thomas Haiden, Mark John Rodwell, David Richardson, A. Okagaki, T. Robinson, Timothy Hewson (January 2012) Intercomparison of global model precipitation forecast skill in 2010/11 using the SEEPS score, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 665, pp. 23. DOI: 10.21957/at45412rq
- 2011
- Rodwell M.J. (March 2011) On Peirce's motivation for equitability in forecast verification, Monthly Weather Review. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00167.1
- Mark John Rodwell, Thomas Haiden, David Richardson (March 2011) Developments in precipitation verification, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 128, pp. 12-16. DOI: 10.21957/x49qpn1o
- 2010
- Jung T., Palmer T.N., Rodwell M.J., Serrar S. (March 2010) Understanding the anomalously cold European winter of 2005/06 using relaxation experiments, Monthly Weather Review. DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3258.1
- Jung T., Balsamo G., Bechtold P., Beljaars A.C.M., Köhler M., Miller M.J., Morcrette J.-J., Orr A., Rodwell M.J., Tompkins A.M. (March 2010) The ECMWF model climate: Recent progress through improved physical parametrizations, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.634
- Rodwell M.J., Richardson D.S., Hewson T.D., Haiden T. (March 2010) A new equitable score suitable for verifying precipitation in numerical weather prediction, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.656
- (March 2010) Diagnosing Remote Origins of Forecast Error Using Relaxation Experiments.
- (March 2010) Diagnostics at ECMWF, ECMWF Seminar Proceedings on Diagnosis of Forecasting and Data Assimilation Systems.
- Mark John Rodwell, David Richardson, Timothy Hewson (March 2010) A new equitable score suitable for verifying precipitation in NWP, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 615, pp. 35. DOI: 10.21957/h886wj14
- Mark John Rodwell, T. Jung, Peter Bechtold, P. Berrisford, Niels Bormann, Carla Cardinali, Laura Ferranti, Timothy Hewson, Franco Molteni, Nils Wedi, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Massimo Bonavita, Roberto Buizza, Mohamed Dahoui, Anotonio Garcia-Mendez, Martin Leutbecher, Philippe Lopez, Y. Trémolet, Frederic Vitart (October 2010) Developments in diagnostics research, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 637, pp. 49. DOI: 10.21957/tnuoos42a
- Jung T. G. Balsamo, Peter Bechtold, Anton Beljaars, M. Köhler, M.J. Miller, J.-J. Morcrette, A. Orr, Mark John Rodwell, A.M. Tompkins (May 2010) The ECMWF model climate: Recent progress through improved physical parametrizations, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 623, pp. 23. DOI: 10.21957/mucdh8qrc
- 2009
- Palmer T.N., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Weisheimer A., Rodwell M.J. (March 2009) Reply, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2916.1
- Rodwell M.J., Doblas-Reyes F.J. (March 2009) Erratum: Medium-range monthly and seasonal prediction for Europe and the use of forecast information (Journal of Climate vol. 19 (23) (6025-6046)), Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI3133.1
- (March 2009) On the Role of the Stratosphere in Medium-Range and Extended-Range Forecasting, EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts.
- (March 2009) Understanding the Origin of the Anomalously Cold European Winter 2005/06 Using Relaxation Experiments, EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts.
- (March 2009) Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts - Reply, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc..
- T. Jung, T.N. Palmer, Mark John Rodwell, S. Serrar (October 2009) Understanding the anomalously cold European winter of 2005/06 using relaxation experiments, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 604, pp. 20. DOI: 10.21957/8am79qvyk
- (March 2009) Using data assimilation from operational weather prediction to improve the MJO in climate models, EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts.
- (March 2009) Understanding the local and global impacts of model physics changes, ECMWF Seminar Proceedings on Parametrization of Sub-grid Physical Processes, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading RG1 9AX, UK.
- (March 2009) Understanding the local and global impacts of aerosol, EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts.
- 2008
- Rodwell M.J., Jung T. (March 2008) Understanding the local and global impacts of model physics changes: An aerosol example, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.298
- Bechtold P., Köhler M., Jung T., Doblas-Reyes F., Leutbecher M., Rodwell M.J., Vitart F., Balsamo G. (March 2008) Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.289
- (March 2008) Cycle 32R3: A step forward in predicting atmospheric variability, ECMWF Newsletter, 114, Winter 2007/08.
- Palmer T.N., Doblas-Reyes F.J., Weisheimer A., Rodwell M.J. (March 2008) Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-89-4-459
- Peter Bechtold, Köhler M., Jung T., Martin Leutbecher, Mark John Rodwell, Frederic Vitart (March 2008) Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with IFS cycle 32r3, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 114, pp. 29-38. DOI: 10.21957/33vbh2pla1
- Jung T., Tim Palmer, Mark John Rodwell, Serrar S. (March 2008) Diagnosing forecast error using relaxation experiments, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 116, pp. 24-34. DOI: 10.21957/qb0n3v8xvz
- Mark John Rodwell, Jung T. (March 2008) The ECMWF ‘Diagnostics Explorer’: A web tool to aid forecast system assessment and development, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 117, pp. 21-29. DOI: 10.21957/is14d23143
- Mark John Rodwell, T. Jung (December 2008) Understanding the local and global impacts of model physics changes: an aerosol example, ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 567, pp. 29. DOI: 10.21957/mwlyb2z2y
- Peter Bechtold, M. Köhler, T. Jung, F. Doblas-Reyes, Martin Leutbecher, Mark John Rodwell, Frederic Vitart, Gianpaolo Balsamo (March 2008) Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: from synoptic to decadal time-scales, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 556, pp. 22. DOI: 10.21957/s54t9der
- 2007
- Rodwell M.J., Palmer T.N. (March 2007) Using numerical weather prediction to assess climate models, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.23
- (March 2007) Seasonal Forecast Datasets: a Resource for Calibrating Regional Climate Change Projections, AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts.
- (March 2007) The Ensemble Prediction System: Recent and Ongoing Developments.
- T.N. Palmer, Roberto Buizza, Martin Leutbecher, Renate Hagedorn, T. Jung, Mark John Rodwell, Frederic Vitart, J. Berner, E. Hágel, A.R. Lawrence, Florian Pappenberger, Y-Y. Park, L von Bremen, I Gilmour (October 2007) The Ensemble Prediction System - Recent and Ongoing Developments, ECMWF Technical Memoranda n. 540, pp. 53. DOI: 10.21957/bh84yl1rj
- Mark John Rodwell, T.N. Palmer (March 2007) Using NWP to assess climate models., ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 518, pp. 26. DOI: 10.21957/74cdjc70y
- 2006
- Ansell T.J., Jones P.D., Allan R.J., Lister D., Parker D.E., Brunet M., Moberg A., Jacobeit J., Brohan P., Rayner N.A., Aguilar E., Alexandersson H., Barriendos M., Brandsma T., Cox N.J., Della-Marta P.M., Drebs A., Founda D., Gerstengarbe F., Hickey K., Jónsson T., Luterbacher J., Nordli Ø., Oesterle H., Petrakis M., Philipp A., Rodwell M.J., Saladie O., Sigro J., Slonosky V., Srnec L., Swail V., García-Suárez A.M., Tuomenvirta H., Wang X., Wanner H., Werner P., Wheeler D., Xoplaki E. (March 2006) Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European-North Atlantic region for the period 1850-2003, Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3775.1
- Rodwell M.J., Doblas-Reyes F.J. (March 2006) Medium-range, monthly, and seasonal prediction for Europe and the use of forecast information, Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3944.1
- Mark John Rodwell (March 2006) Comparing and combining deterministic and ensemble forecasts: How to predict rainfall occurrence better, ECMWF Newsletter, issue 106, pp. 17-23. DOI: 10.21957/cd347812th
- 2005
- Mark John Rodwell (March 2005) The local and global impact of the recent change in model aerosol climatology, ECMWF newsletter, issue 105, pp. 17-23. DOI: 10.21957/345mr1psx6
- Tompkins A.M., Cardinali C., Morcrette J.-J., Rodwell M. (March 2005) Influence of aerosol climatology on forecasts of the African Easterly Jet, Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1029/2004GL022189
- Jung T., Tompkins A.M., Rodwell M.J. (March 2005) Some aspects of systematic error in the ECMWF model, Atmospheric Science Letters. DOI: 10.1002/asl.105
- (March 2005) Monsoon internal dynamics, The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast.
- A.M. Tompkins, Carla Cardinali, J.-J. Morcrette, Mark John Rodwell (March 2005) Influence of aerosol climatology on forecasts of the African Easterly Jet., ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 455, pp. 13. DOI: 10.21957/junbxosbs
- T. Jung, A.M. Tompkins, Mark John Rodwell (July 2005) Some aspects of systematic error in the ECMWF model., ECMWF Technical Memorandum n. 471, pp. 9. DOI: 10.21957/9r3cgb0l0
- 2004
- (March 2004) Gulf Stream forcing of the winter North Atlantic oscillation, Atmospheric Science Letters.
- Rodwell M.J., Drévillon M., Frankignoul C., Hurrell J.W., Pohlmann H., Stendel M., Sutton R.T. (March 2004) North Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty from a multi-model experiment, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1256/qj.03.207
- 2003
- Rodwell M.J., Folland C.K. (March 2003) Atlantic air-sea interaction and model validation, Annals of Geophysics.
- Wu P., Rodwell M.J. (March 2003) Gulf Stream forcing of the winter North Atlantic oscillation, Atmospheric Science Letters. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmoscilet.2003.12.002
- (March 2003) Atlantic forcing of climate and its uncertainty, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly.
- (March 2003) Influence of the oceans on North Atlantic climate variability: a comparison of results from four atmospheric GCMs, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly.
- Rodwell M.J. (March 2003) On the predictability of North Atlantic climate, Geophysical Monograph Series. DOI: 10.1029/134GM08
- 2002
- Rodwell M.J. (March 2002) Atlantic air-sea interaction revisited, International Geophysics. DOI: 10.1016/S0074-6142(02)80167-X
- (March 2002) The climate of the twentieth century project, CLIVAR exchanges.
- Rodwell M.J., Folland C.K. (March 2002) Atlantic air-sea interaction and seasonal predictability, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1256/00359000260247291
- 2001
- Rodwell M.J., Hoskins B.J. (March 2001) Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons, Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3192:SAASM>2.0.CO;2
- 1999
- Hoskins B., Neale R., Rodwell M., Yang G.-Y. (March 1999) Aspects of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation, Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology.
- (March 1999) Aspects of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation, Tellus B.
- (March 1999) Simulating the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation and European Climate, 1947-1997, WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION-PUBLICATIONS-WMO TD.
- Hoskins B., Neale R., Rodwell M., Yang G.-Y. (March 1999) Aspects of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation, Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography.
- Webster S., Thuburn J., Hoskins B., Rodwell M. (March 1999) Further development of a hybrid-isentropic GCM, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1256/smsqj.55816
- Rodwell M.J., Rowell D.P., Folland C.K. (March 1999) Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate, Nature. DOI: 10.1038/18648
- 1997
- Rodwell M.J. (March 1997) Breaks in the Asian monsoon: The influence of Southern Hemisphere weather systems, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<2597:BITAMT>2.0.CO;2
- 1996
- Rodwell M.J., Hoskins B.J. (March 1996) Monsoons and the dynamics of deserts, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1256/smsqj.53407
- 1995
- Hoskins B.J., Rodwell M.J. (March 1995) A model of the Asian summer monsoon. Part I: the global scale, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<1329:AMOTAS>2.0.CO;2
- Rodwell M.J., Hoskins B.J. (March 1995) A model of the Asian summer monsoon. Part II: cross-equatorial flow and PV behavior, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<1341:AMOTAS>2.0.CO;2
- 1993
- (March 1993) Dynamics of the Indian Summer Monsoon.
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