Frederic Vitart

Principal Scientist
Research Department, Earth System Predictability Section, Extended Range Forecasting Group

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Profile
Summary: 

Frederic Vitart has a scientific background in weather and climate. He has over 20 years of expertise in operational probabilistic forecasting  and numerical model development at ECMWF. His current main duty at ECMWF is to lead research on extended-range forecasting.

 

Professional interests: 

Frederic Vitart's main professional interests include:

  • Sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction
  • Tropical cyclone prediction
  • Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
  • Tropical-extratropical interactions
  • Forecast verification

 

 

Career background: 
  • Research scientist at ECMWF since Nov. 1998
  • 1994-1998 Ph.D student in the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences program at Princeton University, USA
  • 1992-1994 Research scientist at Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), France
  • 1990-1992 Visiting scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratoty, USA
  • 1990 Graduated from Ecole Centrale Paris
External recognitions: 
  • Co-chair of the WWRP/WCRP sub-seasonal-to-seasonal Prediction (S2S) project
  • Former member of the WGNE/MJO-Task Force
Publications

 

  • Vitart, F., J.L. Anderson and W.F. Stern, 1997; Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations. J. Climate, 10, 745-760.
  • Vitart, F., J.L. Anderson and W.F. Stern, 1999: Impact of large-scale circulation on tropical storm frequency, intensity, and location, simulated by an ensemble of GCM integrations. J. Climate, 12, 3237-3254.
  • Vitart, F. and J.L. Anderson, 2001: Sensitivity of tropical storm frequency to ENSO and interdecadal variability of SST's in an ensemble of GCM integrations. J. Climate, 14, 533-545.
  • Vitart. F., J.L. Anderson, J. Sirutis and R.E. Tuleya, 2001: Sensitivity of tropical storms simulated by a general circulation model to changes in cumulus parametrization. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 25-51.
  • Vitart, F., and T.N. Stockdale, 2001: Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using coupled GCM integrations. Mon. Wea. Rev, 129(10), 2521-2527.
  • Troccoli A., Balmaseda M., Segnschneider J., Vialard J., Anderson D.L.T., Haines K., Stockdale T., Vitart F. and Fox A.D. (2002) Salinity adjustments in the presence of temperature data assimilation, Monthly Weather Review, 130, 89-102.
  • Vitart, F., M.A. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti and D. Anderson, 2003: Westerly wind events and the 1997/98 El-Nino event in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. J. Climate, 16(19), 3153-3170.
  • Vitart, F., D. Anderson and T. Stockdale, 2003: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over
  • Mozambique. J. Climate, 16(23), 3932-3945.
  • Vialard, J., F. Vitart, M.A. Balmaseda, T. Stockdale and D.L.T. Anderson, 2003: An ensemble generation method for seasonal forecasting with an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 441-453.
  • Vitart, F, 2004: Monthly forecasting at ECMWF. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132(12), 2761-2779.
  • Vitart, F, 2004: Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Storm Statistics. Hurricanes and Typhoons Past, Present, and Future, R.J. Murmane and K-B Liu. Ed., Columbia University Press. 354-392.
  • Vitart, F, 2005: Monthly Forecast and the summer 2003 heat wave over Europe: a case study. Atmospheric Science Letter, 6(2), 112-117.
  • Waliser, D., K. Wickmann, R. Dole, S. Schubert, O. Alves, C. Jones, M. Newman, H.-L. Pan, A. Roubicek, C. Smith, H. van den Dool, F. Vitart, M. Wheeler, J. Whitaker, 2005: The experimental MJO prediction project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(4), 435-43.
  • Whitaker, J.S., X. Wei and F. Vitart, 2005: improving week two forecasts with multi-model reforcast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2279-2284.
  • Jung, T. and F. Vitart, 2005: Medium-Range weather forecasting in the extratropics during wintertime with and without an interactive ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 1972-1986.
  • Hollingsworth, A., A. Simmons, S. Uppala, E. Klinker, J. Onvlee, J.W. de Vries, D. Burridge, F. Vitart, A. de Roo, C. Pfrang, 2005: The role in Geo of Earth-system observations, moedling and assimilation- a view from Europe. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131,3493-3512, doi:10.1256/qj.05.181.
  • Vitart, F., 2006: Seasonal forecasting of tropical storm frequency using a multi-model ensemble. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 647-666.
  • Woolnough, S. J., F. Vitart and M. A, Balmaseda, 2007: The role of the ocean in the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Implications for MJO prediction Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 117-128.
  • Vitart, F., S. Woolnough, M. A. Balmaseda and A. Tompkins, 2007: Monthly forecast of the Madden-Julian Oscillation using a coupled GCM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 2700-2715.
  • Vitart, F. and Francisco Doblas-Reyes, 2007: Impact of greenhouse gas concentrations on tropical storms in coupled seasonal forecasts. TellusA, 59A, 417-427.
  • Buizza, R., Bidlot, J.-R., Wedi, N., Fuentes, M., Hamrud, M., Holt, G., & Vitart, F., 2007: The new ECMWF
  • VAREPS. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 681-695.
  • Vitart, F., M. Huddleston, M. Deque, D. Peake, T. Palmer, T. Stockdale, M. Davey, S. Ineson and A. Weisheimer, 2007: Dynamically-based seasonal forecast of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16815, doi:10.1029/2007GL030740.
  • Weigel, A., D. Baggenstos, M.A. Liniger, F. Vitart and C. Appenzeller, 2008: Probabilistic verification of monthly temperature forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 5162-5182.
  • Bechtold, P., M. Koehler, T. Jung, P. Doblas-Reyes, M. Leutbecher, M. Rodwell and F. Vitart, 2007: Advances in Simulating Atmospheric Variability with the ECMWF model: From Synoptic to Decadal Time-scales. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1337-1351.
  • Vitart, F., R. Buizza, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, J.-R. Bidlot, A. Bonet, M. Fuentes, A. Hofstadler, F. Molteni and T. Palmer, 2008: The new VAREPS-monthly forecasting system: a first step towards seamless prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1789-1799.
  • Vitart, F. and F. Molteni, 2009: Dynamical extended-range prediction of early monsoon rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Rev.,137,1480-1492.
  • CLIVAR Madden-Julian Oscillation Working Group: Waliser, D., K. Sperber, H. Hendon, D. Kim, E. Maloney, M. Wheeler, K. Weickmann, C. Zhang, J. Gottschalk, W. Higgins, I.-S. Kang, D. Legler, M. Moncrieff, S. Schubert, W. Stern, F. Vitart, B. Wang, W. Wang and S. Woolnough, 2009, MJO Simulation Diagnostics. J. Climate, 22, 3006- 3030.
  • Vitart, F., 2009: Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation on tropical storms and risk of landfall in the ECMWF forecast system. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15802, doi:10.1029/2009GL039089
  • Gottschalk, J., M. Wheeler, K. Weickmann, F. Vitart, N. Savage, H. Lin, H. Hendon, D. Waliser, K. Sperber, C. Prestrelo, M. Nakagawa, M. Flatau, W. Higgins, 2010: A Framework for Assessing Operational Model MJO Forecasts: A Project of the CLIVAR Madden-Julian Oscillation Working Group. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91(9), 1247-1258.
  • Elsberry, R. L., Jordan, M. S. and F. Vitart, 2009: Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescale with the ECMWF monthly forecast model. Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 135-153.
  • Camargo, S.J, M. Ballester, A.G. Barnston, P. Klotzbach, P. Roundy, M. A. Saunders, F. Vitart and M.C.
  • WHEELER, 2006: Short-term climate (seasonal and intra-seasonal) prediction of tropical activity and intensity. Topic 4.3, Workshop Topic Reports, Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI), San Jose, Costa Rica, November2006, WMO, TMRP 72, 493-499.
  • Stockdale, T., D. L.T. Anderson, M.A. Balmaseda, F. Doblas-Reyes, L. Ferranti, K. Mogensen, T.N. Palmer, F. Molteni and F. Vitart, 2010: ECMWF Seasonal Forecast System 3 and its prediction of Sea Surface
  • Koster, R.D., S.P.P. Mahanama, T.J. Yamada, G. Balsamo, A.A. Berg, M. Boisserie, P.A. Dirmeyer, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, G. Drewitt, C.T. Gordon, Z. Guo, J.-H. Jeong, D.M. Lawrence, W.-S. Lee, Z. Li, L. Luo, S. Malyshev, W.J. Merryfield, S. Seneviratne, T. Stanelle, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, F. Vitart and E.F. Wood, 2010: The contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02402,doi:10.1029/2009GL041677.
  • R. D. Koster S. P. P. Mahanama, T. J. Yamada, Gianpaolo Balsamo, A. A. Berg, M. Boisserie,P. A. Dirmeyer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, G. Drewitt, C. T. Gordon,
  • Z. Guo, J.-H. Jeong, W.-S. Lee, Z. Li, L. Luo, S. Malyshev, W. J. Merryfield, S. I. Seneviratne, T. Stanelle, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, F. Vitart, and E. F. Wood, 2011: The Second Phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill. J. Hydrometeor, 12, 805–822.
  • Vitart, F. and F. Molteni, 2010: Simulation of the MJO and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 136, 842-855.
  • Vitart, F., A. Leroy and M.C. Wheeler, 2010: A comparison of dynamical and statistical predictions of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev, 138, 3671–3682.
  • Vitart, F. and T. Jung, 2010: Impact of the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics on the skill in predicting the Madden Julian Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L23805, doi:10.1029/2010GL045465.
  • Stockdale, T.N., D.L.T. Anderson, M.A. Balmaseda, F. Doblas-Reyes, L. Ferranti, K. Mogensen, T.N. Palmer, F. Molteni and F. Vitart, 2010: ECMWF Seasonal Forecast System 3 and its prediction of Sea Surface Temperature. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0947-3.
  • Jung, T., F. Vitart, L. Ferranti, and J.-J. Morcrette,2011: Origin and predictability of the extreme negative NAO winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L07701, doi:10.1029/2011GL046786.
  • Koster, R.D., S.P.P. Mahanama, T.J. Yamada, G. Balsamo, A.A. Berg, M. Boisserie, P.A. Dirmeyer, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, G. Drewitt, C.T. Gordon, Z. Guo, J.-H. Jeong, D.M. Lawrence, W.-S. Lee, Z. Li, L. Luo, S. Malyshev, W.J. Merryfield, S. Seneviratne, T. Stanelle, B.J.J.M. van den Hurk, F. Vitart and E.F. Wood, 2011: The Second Phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Sub-seasonal Forecast Skill, J. Hydrometerology, 12(5), 805–822.
  • Dee, D.P., S. M. Uppala, A. J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. C. M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A. J. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. B. Healy, H. Hersbach, E. V. Hólm, L. Isaksen, P. Kållberg, M. Köhler, M. Matricardi, A. P. McNally, B. M. Monge-Sanz, J.-J. Morcrette, B.-K. Park, C. Peubey, P. de Rosnay, C. Tavolato, J.-N. Thépaut and F. Vitart, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 137, 553-597.
  • de Boisseson, E., M. A. Balmaseda, F. Vitart and M. Mogensen,1012: Impact of the sea surface temperature forcing on hindcasts of Madden-Julian Oscillation events using the ECMWF model, Ocean Sci., 8, 1071–1084.
  • Vitart, F., A. Robertson and D. Anderson, 2012: Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project: bridging the gap between weather and climate. WMO Bulletin, 61(2), 23-28.
  • Hirons, L. C. , Inness, P., Vitart, F. and Bechtold, P. , 2013: Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part I: the representation of the MJO. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (675). pp. 1417-1426. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2060
  • Hirons, L. C., Inness, P., Vitart, F. and Bechtold , P., 2013: Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part II: the application of process-based diagnostics. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139 (675). pp. 1427-1444. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.2059
  • Ling, J., P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. Beljaars, R. Forbes, F. Vitart, M. Ulate and Chidong Zhang, 2014: Global versus Local MJO Forecast Skill of the ECMWF Model during DYNAMO. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 2228–2247.
  • Weisheimer, A., S Corti, T Palmer, F Vitart, 2014:  Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 372 (2014) 20130290
  • Vitart,F. 2014: Evolution of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill scores. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 140, 1889-1899.
  • Zhu, J., B. Huang, B. Cash, J. Kinter, J. Manganello, R. Barimalala, E. Altshuler, F. Vitart. F. Molteni and P. Towers, 2015: ENSO prediction in project MINERVA: Sensitivity of Atmospheric Horizontal Resolution and Ensemble Size. J. Climate, 28, 2080-2095.
  • Robertson, A.W., A. Kumar, M. P., and F. Vitart, 2015: Improving and Promoting Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, ES49–ES53. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00139.1
  • Vitart, F., A.W. Roberston and S2S steering group, 2015: Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction: linking weather and climate. World Meteorological Organization, 2015: Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from Minutes to Months, (G Brunet, S Jones, PM Ruti Eds.), (WMO-No. 1156), (ISBN 978-92-63-11156-2), Geneva
  • Retish. S., Y.J.Orsolini, A. Weisheimer, F. Vitart, G. Balsamo, T.N. Stockdale, E. Dutra, F. J.
  • Doblas-Reyes and D. Basang, 2016: Impact of springtime Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts. Climate Dyn., 1-17. DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-2993-y.
  • Yamaguchi, M., F. Vitart, S. T. K. Lang, L. Magnusson, R. L. Elsberry, G. Elliott, M. Kyouda, and T. Nakazawa, 2015: Global distribution on the skill of tropicalcyclone activity forecasts from short- to medium-range time scales. Weather and Forecasting. 30, 1695-1709.
  • Orsolini, Y.G., R. Senan , G. Balsamo , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F. Vitart, A Weisheimer, A Carrasco, R. E. Benestad, 2013: Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts. Climate Dynamics41(7-8):1-14
  • Orsolini, Y.G., R. Senan, F. Vitart, G. Balsamo, A. Weisheimer, F. J. Doblas-Rey, 2015: Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/2010. Climate Dynamicsi, 47 (2016) 1325-1334. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2903-8
  • Xavier, P. K., Petch, J. C., Klingaman, N. P., Woolnough, S. J., Jiang, X., Waliser, D. E., Caian, M., Cole, J., Hagos, S. M., Hannay, C., Kim, D., Miyakawa, T., Pritchard, M. S., Roehrig, R., Shindo, E., Vitart, F. and Wang, H. (2015) Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 120 (10). pp. 4749-4763. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: 10.1002/2014JD022718
  • Klingaman, N. P., Woolnough, S., Jiang, X., Waliser, D., Xavier, P. K., Petch, J., Caian, M., Hannay, C., Kim, D., Ma, H.-Y., Merryfield, W. J., Miyakawa, T., Pritchard, M., Ridout, J. A., Roehrig, R., Shindo, E., Vitart, F., Wang, H., Cavanaugh, N. R., Mapes, B. E., Shelly, A. and Zhang, G. J. (2015) Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 120 (10). pp. 4690-4717. ISSN 0148-0227 doi: 10.1002/2014JD022374
  • Grazzini, F. and F. Vitart, 2015: Atmospheric predictability and Rossby wave packets. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc, 141, 2793–2802.
  • Tripathi, O., A. Charlton-Perez, M. Sigmond and F. Vitart, 2015: Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions. Environmental Research Letters 10/2015; 10. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104007
  • Vitart, F., A. Robertson and the S2S steering group, 2015: Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction: linking weather and climate. Seamless prediction of the earth system: from minutes to months, WMO-no 1156, 385-401.
  • Manganello, J. V., K. I. Hodges, B. A. Cash, J. L. Kinter, E. L. Altshuler, M. J. Fennessy, F. Vitart, F. Molteni and P. Towers, 2016: Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Atmospheric-Resolution Coupled Prediction System. J. Climate, 29(3), 1179–1200. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0531.1
  • Poli, P., H. Hersbach, D. Dee, P. Berrisford, A.J. Simmons, F. Vitart, P. Laloyaux, D. Tan, C. Peubey, J.-N,. Thapaut, Y. Tremolet, E. Holm, M. Bonavita, L. Isaksen and M. Fisher, 2016: ERA-20C: An atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century, J. Clim., 29(11), 4083–4097.
  • Kim, H.-M., D. Kim, F. Vitart, V. Toma, J.-S. Kug and P. Webster, 2016: MJO propagation across the Maritime Continent in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, J. Clim., 29(11), 3973–3988,  DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1
  • Vitart, F. et al, 2017: Vitart, F., C. Ardilouze, A. Bonet, A. Brookshaw, M. Chen, C. Codorean, M. Déqué, L. Ferranti, E. Fucile, M. Fuentes, H. Hendon, J. Hodgson,
    H. Kang, A. Kumar, H. Lin, G. Liu, X. Liu, P. Malguzzi, I. Mallas, M. Manoussakis, D. Mastrangelo, C. MacLachlan, P. McLean, A. Minami, R.
    Mladek, T. Nakazawa, S. Najm, Y. Nie, M. Rixen, A.W. Robertson, P. Ruti, C. Sun, Y. Takaya, M. Tolstykh, F. Venuti, D. Waliser, S.
    Woolnough, T. Wu, D. Won, H. Xiao, R. Zaripov, and L. Zhang, 2017: The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database. Bull.
    Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 163–173, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1
  • Vitart, F. 1017: Madden-Julian Oscillation Prediction and Teleconnections in the S2S Database. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.. Accepted,  DOI:10.1002/qj.3079
  • Jie, W., F. Vitart, T. Wu, and X. Liu, 2017: Simulations of Asian Summer Monsoon in Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S) database, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., Accepted, DOI: 10.1002/qj.3085