Head of Evaluation SectionForecast Department, Evaluation Sectionpage tabs Profile Summary: David Richardson is Head of the Evaluation Section at ECMWF. He has over 30 years’ experience in weather forecasting research and operations, including use and monitoring of the global observing system, development of numerical weather prediction models, ensemble forecasting, products and tools for forecast users, and evaluation of all aspects of forecast performance. He has published numerous scientific papers as well as book chapters on these topics. David has served on several WMO committees and is currently chair of the WMO Expert Team on Operational Weather Forecasting Process and Support, which oversees the co-ordination of operational NWP activities among WMO member states. Professional interests: Forecast verification Diagnostics of forecast model behaviour Forecast products, probability forecasts and communication of uncertainty Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts Ensemble forecasting methods Career background: 2013–present: Head of Evaluation Section, ECMWF 2005-2013: Head of Meteorological Operations Section, ECMWF 2003-2005: Manager of Assimilation Studies, Met Office, UK 1997-2002: Education Officer and research scientist, ECMWF 1986-1997: Research scientist, Met Office, UK External recognitions: Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society Member of RMetS Council (2004-2008) and member of Accreditation Board (2007-2012) Chair of the WMO Expert Team on Operational Weather Forecasting Process and Support (2013-) Member of the WMO Executive Council Steering Group on Seamless Global Data Processing and Forecasting System (2016-) Member of the WMO THORPEX TIGGE Working Group (2003-2015; co-chair 2003-2005) Chair of WMO CBS Co-ordination Group on Forecast Verification (2009-2013) Member of UK National Flood Resilience Review Scientific Advisory Group (2016) Publications 2018David Richardson (2018) Medium- and Extended-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasting, Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry. M. J. Rodwell, D. S. Richardson, D. B. Parsons, H. Wernli (May 2018) Flow-Dependent Reliability: A Path to More Skillful Ensemble Forecasts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Zied Ben Bouallègue, Thomas Haiden, David S. Richardson (March 2018) The diagonal score: definition, properties, and interpretations, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. David A. Lavers, Mark J. Rodwell, David S. Richardson, F. Martin Ralph, James D. Doyle, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Vijay Tallapragada, Florian Pappenberger (August 2018) The Gauging and Modeling of Rivers in the Sky, Geophysical Research Letters. David A. Lavers, David S. Richardson, Alexandre M. Ramos, Ervin Zsoter, Florian Pappenberger, Ricardo M. Trigo (September 2018) Earlier awareness of extreme winter precipitation across the western Iberian Peninsula, Meteorological Applications. Laura Ferranti, Linus Magnusson, Frédéric Vitart, David S. Richardson (July 2018) How far in advance can we predict changes in large-scale flow leading to severe cold conditions over Europe?, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2017David A. Lavers, Ervin Zsoter, David S. Richardson, Florian Pappenberger (August 2017) An Assessment of the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for Water Vapor Transport during Boreal Winter, Weather and Forecasting. (2017) 25 years of ensemble forecasting at ECMWF, ECMWF newsletter. (2017) IFS Cycle 43r3 brings model and assimilation updates, ECMWF newsletter. (2017) New IFS cycle brings sea-ice coupling and higher ocean resolution, ECMWF newsletter. 2016Rodwell M.J., Lang S.T.K., Ingleby N.B., Bormann N., Hólm E., Rabier F., Richardson D.S., Yamaguchi M. (2016) Reliability in ensemble data assimilation, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Eric Gilleland, Florian Pappenberger, Barbara Brown, Elizabeth Ebert, David Richardson (2016) Verification of Meteorological Forecasts for Hydrological Applications, Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting. David A. Lavers, Florian Pappenberger, David S. Richardson, Ervin Zsoter (November 2016) ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation, Geophysical Research Letters. Ervin Zsótér, Florian Pappenberger, Paul Smith, Rebecca Elizabeth Emerton, Emanuel Dutra, Fredrik Wetterhall, David Richardson, Konrad Bogner, Gianpaolo Balsamo (November 2016) Building a Multimodel Flood Prediction System with the TIGGE Archive, Journal of Hydrometeorology. 2015Pappenberger F., Cloke H.L., Parker D.J., Wetterhall F., Richardson D.S., Thielen J. (2015) The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe, Environmental Science and Policy. Zsoter E., Pappenberger F., Richardson D. (2015) Sensitivity of model climate to sampling configurations and the impact on the Extreme Forecast Index, Meteorological Applications. Pappenberger F., Jendritzky G., Staiger H., Dutra E., Di Giuseppe F., Richardson D.S., Cloke H.L. (2015) Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), International Journal of Biometeorology. David Richardson, Hemri S, K. Bogner, Gneiting T., Thomas Haiden, Florian Pappenberger, Scheuerer M. (2015) Calibration of ECMWF forecasts, ECMWF Newsletter. (2015) GEOWOW project boosts access to Earth observation data, ECMWF Newsletter. 2014 (2014) Decisions, decisions…!, ECMWF Newsletter. Alfieri L., Pappenberger F., Wetterhall F., Haiden T., Richardson D., Salamon P. (2014) Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, Journal of Hydrology. (2014) Statistical evaluation of ECMWF extreme wind forecasts, ECMWF Newsletter. 2013Rabier F., Cohn S., Cocquerez P., Hertzog A., Avallone L., Deshler T., Haase J., Hock T., Doerenbecher A., Wang J., Guidard V., Thépaut J.-N., Langland R., Tangborn A., Balsamo G., Brun E., Parsons D., Bordereau J., Cardinali C., Danis F., Escarnot J.-P., Fourrié N., Gelaro R., Genthon C., Ide K., Kalnajs L., Martin C., Meunier L.-F., Nicot J.-M., Perttula T., Potts N., Ragazzo P., Richardson D., Sosa-Sesma S., Vargas A. (2013) The concordiasi field experiment over antarctica: First results from innovative atmospheric measurements, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Dutra E., Diamantakis M., Tsonevsky I., Zsoter E., Wetterhall F., Stockdale T., Richardson D., Pappenberger F. (2013) The extreme forecast index at the seasonal scale, Atmospheric Science Letters. (2013) An evaluation of recent performance of ECMWF’s forecasts, ECMWF Newsletter. (2013) Forecast performance 2012, ECMWF Newsletter. (2013) Forecast performance 2013, ECMWF Newsletter. 2012Haiden T., Rodwell M.J., Richardson D.S., Okagaki A., Robinson T., Hewson T. (2012) Intercomparison of global model precipitation forecast skill in 2010/11 using the SEEPS score, Monthly Weather Review. David S. Richardson (February 2012) Economic Value and Skill, Forecast Verification. (2012) Forecast performance 2011, ECMWF Newsletter. 2011Jansa A., Arbogast P., Doerenbecher A., Garcies L., Genoves A., Homar V., Klink S., Richardson D., Sahin C. (2011) A new approach to sensitivity climatologies: The DTS-MEDEX-2009 campaign, Natural Hazards and Earth System Science. David Richardson (August 2011) From Observations to Forecasts - Part 11: Ensemble products for weather forecasters, Weather. (2011) Developments in precipitation verification, ECMWF Newsletter. (2011) Forecast performance 2010, ECMWF Newsletter. 2010Rodwell M.J., Richardson D.S., Hewson T.D., Haiden T. (2010) A new equitable score suitable for verifying precipitation in numerical weather prediction, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. (2010) Performance of ECMWF forecasts in 2008/09, ECMWF Newsletter. 2009Zsoter E., Buizza R., Richardson D. (2009) "Jumpiness" of the ECMWF and Met office EPS control and ensemble-mean forecasts, Monthly Weather Review. 2008Ferro C.A.T., Richardson D.S., Weigel A.P. (2008) On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores, Meteorological Applications. Göber M., Zsótér E., Richardson D.S. (2008) Could a perfect model ever satisfy a naïve forecaster? On grid box mean versus point verification, Meteorological Applications. 2006Richardson D.S. (2006) Predictability and economic value, Predictability of Weather and Climate. 2004Richardson D.S., Truscott B. (2004) The 2003 Atlantic thorpex regional campaign (TREC), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Richardson D.S., Truscott B. (2004) The 2003 Atlantic THORPEX regional campaign (TReC), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Saetra Ø., Hersbach H., Bidlot J.-R., Richardson D.S. (2004) Effects of observation errors on the statistics for ensemble spread and reliability, Monthly Weather Review. 2003Buizza R., Richardson D.S., Palmer T.N. (2003) Benefits of increased resolution in the ECMWF ensemble system and comparison with poor-man's ensembles, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2002Yuejian Zhu, Zoltan Toth, Richard Wobus, David Richardson, Kenneth Mylne (January 2002) The Economic Value Of Ensemble-Based Weather Forecasts, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2001Richardson D.S. (2001) Ensembles using multiple models and analyses, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Richardson D.S. (2001) Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2000Richardson D.S. (2000) Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Palmer T.N., Brankovic C., Richardson D.S. (2000) A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Buizza R., Barkmeijer J., Palmer T.N., Richardson D.S. (2000) Current status and future developments of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, Meteorological Applications. 1999Harrison M.S.J., Palmer T.N., Richardson D.S., Buizza R. (1999) Analysis and model dependencies in medium-range ensembles: Two transplant case-studies, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 1994Collier C.G., Dixon J., Harrison M.S.J., Hunt J.C.R., Mitchell J.F.B., Richardson D.S. (1994) Extreme surface winds in mid-latitude storms: forecasting and changes in climatology, Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics.