Antje Weisheimer

Senior Scientist
Research Department, Earth System Predictability Section, Extended Range Forecasting Group

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Antje is a senior research scientist interested in model-based weather and climate forecasts and the uncertainties associated with them.

Professional interests: 
  • Predictability in the Earth System on a range of time scales from days to weeks, months, seasons and longer
  • Model uncertainties in weather and climate forecasts
  • Seamless prediction of weather and climate
Career background: 
  • PhD in Atmospheric Physics, University of Potsdam, Germany, 2000
  • London School of Economics and Political Sciences (Marie-Curie Fellowship), 2002-2003
  • Meteorological Institute of the Free University Berlin, Assistant Professor, 2003-2005
  • Predictability Section at ECMWF, since 2005 (60%)
  • University of Oxford, Physics Department, Senior NCAS Research Fellow, since 2011 (40%)
External recognitions: 
  • Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society and member of the German Meteorological Society
  • Associate Editor for Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
  • Editorial Board Member of Nature Scientific Reports
  • Contributing Author and Expert Reviewer of the AR5 IPCC report
  • Senior NCAS Research Fellow at the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics (AOPP) institute, Oxford University
  • Research Fellow at Wolfson College, Oxford
  • PI and co-PI on a number of national and international grants including EUCP, SPECS, EUCLEIA, IMPETUS, SummerTIME (through Oxford)
  • Finalist for L'Oreal Women in Science Award




  • Palmer, T.N. and A. Weisheimer (2018). A simple pedagogical model linking initial-value reliability with trustworthiness in the forced climate response. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0240.1.
  • Ineson, S., M.A. Balmaseda, M.K. Davey, D. Decremer, N.J. Dunstone, M. Gordon, H. Ren, A.A. Scaife and A. Weisheimer (2018). Predicting El Nino in 2014 and 2015. Scientific Reports, 8, 10733, doi:10.1038/s41598-018-29130-1.
  • O'Reilly, C.H., T. Woollings, L. Zanna and A. Weisheimer (2018). The impact of tropical precipitation on summertime Euro-Atlantic circulation via a circumglobal wave-train. J. Clim, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0451.1
  • MacLeod, D., C. O'Reilly, T.N. Palmer and A. Weisheimer (2018). Flow dependent ensemble forecast spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics. Atm. Sci. Lett., doi:10.1002/asl.815
  • Baker, L.H., L.C. Shaffrey, R.T. Sutton, A. Weisheimer and A.A. Scaife (2018). An intercomparison of skill and over/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in EUROSIP seasonal forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2018GL078838.
  • Beverley, J.D., S.J. Woolnough, L.H. Baker, S.J. Johnson and A. Weisheimer (2018). The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill. Clim. Dyn., in press.
  • Weisheimer, A., D. Decremer, J. Heatley, D. MacLeod, C. O'Reilly, T. Stockdale, S. Johnson and T.N. Palmer (2018). How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation? Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., under revision. (2018).
  • O'Reilly, C.H., A. Weisheimer, T. Woollings, L. Gray and D. MacLeod (2018). The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. under revision.
  • Hansen, F., T. Kruschke, R.J. Greatbatch and A. Weisheimer (2018). Key factors for seasonal predictability of Northern hemisphere severe winter storms. Geophys. Res. Lett. under revision.
  • Befort, D.J., S. Wild, J.R. Knight, J.F. Lockwood, H.E. Thornton, L. Hermanson, P. Bett, A. Weisheimer and G.C. Leckebusch (2018). Seasonal forecast skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., under revision.
  • Parker, T., T. Woollings and A. Weisheimer (2018). Ensemble sensitivity analysis of Greenland blocking in medium-range forecasts. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., under revision.
  • Juricke, S., D. MacLeod, A. Weisheimer, L. Zanna and T. Palmer (2018). Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. under revision.


  • Weisheimer, A., N. Schaller, C. O'Reilly, D. MacLeod and T.N. Palmer (2017). Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the 20th Century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 917-926, doi:10.1002/qj.2976.
  • Hansen, F., R.J. Greatbatch, G. Gollan, T. Jung and A. Weisheimer (2017). Remote control of NAO predictability via the stratosphere. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 706-719, doi:10.1002/qj.2958.
  • Subramanian, A., A. Weisheimer, T.N. Palmer, F. Vitart and P. Bechtold (2017). Impact of stochastic physics on tropical precipitation in the coupled ECMWF model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 143, 852-865, doi:10.1002/qj.2970.
  • Davini, P., J. von Hardenberg, S. Corti, A. Subramanian, H. Christensen, S. Juricke, P.A.G Watson, A. Weisheimer and T.N. Palmer (2017). Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parametrisations in climate simulations. Geosci. Model Dev., doi:10.5194/gmd-10-1383-2017
  • Manzanas, R., A. Lucero, A. Weisheimer and J.M. Gutierrez (2017). Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal forecasts? Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3668-z.
  • Leutbecher, M., S.-J. Lock, P. Ollinaho, S. Lang, G. Balsamo, P. bechtold, M. Bonavita, H. Christensen, M. Diamantakis, E. Dutra, S. English, M. Fisher, R. Forbes, J. Goddard, T. Haiden, R. Hogan, S. Juricke, H. Lawrence, D. MacLeod, L. Magnusson, S. Malardel, S. Massart, I. Sandu, P. Smolarkiewicz, A. Subramanian, F. Vitart, N. Wedi, and A. Weisheimer (2017). Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: State of the art and future vision. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.3094.
  • Watson, P., J. Berner, S. Corti, P. Davini, J. von Hardenberg, C. Sanchez, A. Weisheimer, and T. Palmer (2017).The impact of stochastic physics on tropical rainfall variability on daily time scales in global weather and climate models. J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1002/2016JD026386.
  • O'Reilly, C.H., J. Heatley, D. MacLeod, A. Weisheimer, T.N. Palmer, N. Schaller, and T. Woollings (2017). Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the 20th Century. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2017GL073736.
  • Alessandri, A., M. De Felice, F. Catalano, J.-Y. Lee, B. Wang, D.Y. Lee, J.-H. Yoo and A. Weisheimer (2017). Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economic value to end-users. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3668-z


  • Schaller, N., A.L. Kay, R. Lamb, N.R. Massey, G.J. van Oldenborgh, F.E.L. Otto, S.N. Sparrow, R. Vautard, P. Yiox, I. Ashpole, A. Bowery, S.M. Crooks, K. Haustein, C. Huntingford, W.J. Ingram, R.G. Jones, T. Legg, J. Miller, J. Skeggs, D. Wallom, A. Weisheimer, S. Wilson, P.A. Stott and M.R. Allen (2016). The role of human influence on climate in recent UK winter floods and their impacts. Nature Climate Change, 6, 627-634, doi:10.1038/nclimate2927.
  • Senan, R., Y.J. Orsolini, A. Weisheimer, F. Vitart, G. Balsamo, T. Stockdale, E. Dutra, F.J. Doblas-Reyes and D. Basang (2016). Impact of springtime Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts. Clim. Dyn., 9, 2709-2725, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-2993-y.
  • Watson, P.A.G., A. Weisheimer, J.R. Knight and T.N. Palmer (2016). The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme northern hemisphere winter of 2013/14. J. Geophys. Res., 121 , 1698-1714, doi:10.1002/2015JD024048.
  • Andrejczuk, M., F.C. Cooper, S. Juricke, T.N. Palmer, A. Weisheimer and L. Zanna (2016). Oceanic stochastic parametrisation in a seasonal forecast system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 1867-1875, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0245.1
  • Matsueda, M., A. Weisheimer and T.N. Palmer (2016). Calibrating Climate Change Predictions With Estimates of Seasonal Forecast Reliability. J. Clim., 29, 3831-3840. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0087.1
  • Dell'Aquila, A., S. Corti, A. Weisheimer, H. Hersbach, C. Peubey, P. Poli., P. Berrisford, D. Dee and A. Simmons (2016). Benchmarking midlatitude variability in centennial reanalysis and model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL068829
  • Berner, J., U. Achatz, L. Batte, L. Bengtsson, A. De La Camera, H. Christensen, M. Colangeli, D.B. Coleman, D. Crommelin, S. Dolaptchiev, C. Franzke, P. Friedrichs, P. Imkeller, H. Järvinen, S. Juricke, V. Kitsios, F. Lott, V. Lucarini, S. Mahajan, T.N. Palmer, C. Penland, M. Sakradzija, J.-S. von Storch, A. Weisheimer, M. Weniger, P.D. Williams and J.-I. Yano (2016). Stochastic Parametrization: Towards a new view of weather and Climate Models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:
  • MacLeod, D. A., H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger and A. Weisheimer (2016). Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2737-2743, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016.


  • Corti, S., T.N. Palmer, M. Balmaseda, A. Weisheimer, S. Drijfthout, N. Dunstone, W. Hazeleger, J. Kröger, H. Pohlmann, D. Smith, J.-S. von Storch and B. Wouters (2015). Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment. J. Clim., 28, 4454-4470, doi:
  • Shi, W., N. Schaller, D. MacLeod, T.N. Palmer and A. Weisheimer (2015). Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 42, 10.1002/2014GL062829
  • MacLeod, D. A., H.L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger and A. Weisheimer (2015). Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , doi: 10.1002/qj.2631.
  • Orsolini, Y.J., R. Senana, F. Vitart, A. Weisheimer, G. Balsamo, F.J. Doblas-Reyes (2015). Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscialltion in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/10. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2903-8.


  • A. Weisheimer and T.N. Palmer (2014). On the Reliability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts. J. R. Soc. Interface , 11, 9620131162, doi:10.1098/rsif.2013.1162.
  • A. Weisheimer, S. Corti, T.N. Palmer and F. Vitart (2014). Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parameterisations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A , 372,201820130290, doi: 10.1098/rsta.2013.0290.


  • A. Weisheimer (2013). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis, Chapter 11: Near-Term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability, Contributing Author; Coordinating Lead Authors: Ben Kirtman and Scott Power.
  • Orsolini, Y.J., R. Senan, G. Balsamo, F. Doblas-Reyes, F. Vitart, A. Weisheimer, A. Carrasco and R. Benestad (2013). Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts. Clim. Dyn., 41, 1969-1982, DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1782-0


  • Corti, S., A. Weisheimer, T.N. Palmer, F. Doblas-Reyes and L. Magnusson (2012). Reliability of Decadal Predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21712, doi:10.1029/2012GL053354.


  • Weisheimer, A., T.N. Palmer and F. Doblas-Reyes (2011). Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16703, doi:10.1029/2011GL048123.
  • Weisheimer, A., F. Doblas-Reyes, T. Jung and T.N. Palmer (2011). On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05704, doi:10.1029/2010GL046455.
  • Palmer, T.N. and A. Weisheimer (2011). Diagnosing the Causes of Bias in Climate Models - Why it is so Hard? Geophysic. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. 105, 351-365, doi:10.1080/03091929.2010.547194.
  • Alessandri, A., A. Borrelli, A. Navarra, A. Aribas, M. Deque, P. Rogel and A. Weisheimer (2011). Evaluation of probabilistic quality and value of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts: comparison with DEMETER. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139(2), 581-607, doi:10.1175/2010MWR3417.1.
  • Doblas-Reyes, F.J., M.A. Balmaseda, A. Weisheimer and T.N. Palmer (2011). Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Mediuam-Range weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D19111, doi:10.1029/2010JD015394.


  • Weisheimer, A., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, T.N. Palmer, A. Alessandri, A. Arribas, M. Deque, N. Keenlyside, M. MacVean, A. Navarra and P. Rogel (2009). ENSEMBLES - a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21711, doi:10.1029/2009GL040896.
  • Berner, J., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, T.N. Palmer, G. Shutts and A. Weisheimer (2009). Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model. In "Stochastic Physics and Climate Modelling", by T.N. Palmer and P. Williams (Eds.), Chapter 15, 375-395, Cambridge University Press.
  • Doblas-Reyes, F.J., A. Weisheimer, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. McVean, J.M. Murphy, P. Rogel, D. Smith and T.N. Palmer (2009). Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical seasonal forecasts. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 135, 1538-1559.


  • Palmer, T.N., F. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, and M. Rodwell (2008). Reliability of climate change projections of precipitation: Towards "seamless" climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 459-470, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-89-4-459.
  • Berner, J., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, T.N. Palmer, G. Shutts and A. Weisheimer (2008). Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 366, 2561-2579, DOI:10.1098/rsta.2008.0033.


  • Weisheimer, A. (2007): Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 4th Assessment Report, Working Group 1: The Physical Basis of Climate Change, Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science, Contributing Author; Le Treut, H., and R. Somerville (Coordinating Lead Authors), 93-128, 2007.
  • Judd, K., L.A. Smith, and A. Weisheimer (2007). How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? : Bounding boxes. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 1309-1325.
  • Palmer, T.N., F. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, and M. Rodwell (2007): Seasonal Forecast Datasets - A resource for Calibrating Regional Climate Change Projections? CLIVAR Exchanges, 43, 6-7.
  • Vitart, F., M.R. Huddleston, M. Déqué, D. Peake, T.N. Palmer, T.N. Stockdale, M.K. Davey, S. Ineson and A. Weisheimer (2007): Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L16815, doi:10.1029/2007GL030740.


  • Palmer, T.N., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Hagedorn, and A. Weisheimer (2005). Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B, doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1750.
  • Weisheimer, A. and T.N. Palmer (2005). Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20721, doi:10.1029/2005GL023365.
  • Weisheimer, A., L.A. Smith, and K. Judd (2005). A New View of Forecast Skill: Bounding Boxes from the DEMETER Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts. Tellus A, 57, 265-279.
  • Casty, C., D. Handorf, C.C. Raible, J.F. Gonzalez-Rouco, A. Weisheimer, E. Xoplaki, J. Luterbacher, K. Dethloff, H. Wanner (2005). Recurrent climate winter regimes in reconstructed and modelled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the North Atlantic/European sector 1659-1990. Clim. Dyn., 24, 809-822.


thumbnail photo of Antje Weisheimer
Contact Details:
antje . weisheimerecmwf . int
Tel. +44 (0) 118 9499374