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Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform a statistical model over the last 15 years?

Author

G.J. van Oldenborgh

Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda

Laura Ferranti

Tim Stockdale

D.L.T. Anderson

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

12894-did-ecmwf-seasonal-forecast-model-outperform-statistical-model-over-last-15-years.pdf

Forecasting of extreme seasonal precipitation: insight into the ECMWF potential

Author

A.C. Massacand

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

11013-forecasting-extreme-seasonal-precipitation-insight-ecmwf-potential.pdf

Report of the 15th meeting of Computer Representatives, 19-20 May 2003

Author

P. Prior

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

11733-report-15th-meeting-computer-representatives-19-20-may-2003.pdf

On the usage of screen-level parameters and microwave brightness temperature for soil moisture analysis.

Author

G. Seuffert

H. Wilker

P. Viterbo

M. Drusch

J.-F. Mahfouf

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

12187-usage-screen-level-parameters-and-microwave-brightness-temperature-soil-moisture-analysis.pdf

Monthly forecasting system.

Author

Frédéric Vitart

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

12927-monthly-forecasting-systemcomp.pdf

RTIASI-4, a new version of the ECMWF fast radiative transfer model for the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer.

Author

Marco Matricardi

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

11039-rtiasi-4-new-version-ecmwf-fast-radiative-transfer-model-infrared-atmospheric-sounding.pdf

Systematic errors in the ECMWF forecasting system.

Author

T. Jung

A.M. Tompkins

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

10314-systematic-errors-ecmwf-forecasting-system.pdf

Report on the eleventh Security Representatives' Meeting 15-16 May 2003. (Not available for public release)

Author

P. Prior

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

ECMWF ISLSCP-II near-surface dataset from ERA-40.

Author

A. Betts

Anton Beljaars

2003, Report, ERA-40 Project Report Series, ERA Report

File

7596-ecmwf-islscp-ii-near-surface-dataset-era-40.pdf

The assimilation of SSM/I and TMI rainfall rates in the ECMWF 4D-Var system

Author

J.-F. Mahfouf

Peter Bauer

V. Marécal

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

10929-assimilation-ssmi-and-tmi-rainfall-rates-ecmwf-4d-var-system.pdf

Inferring changes in terrestrial water storage using ERA-40 reanalysis data: The Mississippi River basin.

Author

S. Seneviratne

P. Viterbo

D. Lüthi

C. Schär

2003, Report, ERA-40 Project Report Series, ERA Report

File

12179-inferring-changes-terrestrial-water-storage-using-era-40-reanalysis-data-mississippi-river.pdf

Reanalysis and reforecast of three major European storms of the 20th century using the ECMWF forecasting system

Author

T. Jung

E. Klinker

S. Uppala

2003, Report, ERA-40 Project Report Series, ERA Report

File

10329-reanalysis-and-reforecast-three-major-european-storms-20th-century-using-ecmwf-forecasting.pdf

A new parametrization of turbulent orographic form drag.

Author

Anton Beljaars

N. Wood

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

7594-new-parametrization-turbulent-orographic-form-drag.pdf

Verification statistics and evaluations of ECMWF forecasts in 2002-2003

Author

F. Lalaurette

Laura Ferranti

A Ghelli

G. van der Grijn

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

10635-verification-statistics-and-evaluations-ecmwf-forecasts-2002-2003.pdf

High clouds over oceans in the ECMWF 15-year and 45-year re-analyses

Author

F. Chevallier

G.A. Kelly

Adrian Simmons

S. Uppala

Angeles Hernandez

2003, Report, ERA-40 Project Report Series, ERA Report

File

8693-high-clouds-over-oceans-ecmwf-15-year-and-45-year-re-analyses.pdf

Skill of coupled model seasonal forecasts: A Bayesian assessment of ECMWF ENSO forecasts.

Author

C. Coelho

S. Pezzulli

Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda

F. Doblas-Reyes

D.B. Stephenson

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

8750-skill-coupled-model-seasonal-forecasts-bayesian-assessment-ecmwf-enso-forecasts.pdf

Ozone-radiation interactions in the ECMWF forecast system.

Author

J.-J. Morcrette

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

11263-ozone-radiation-interactions-ecmwf-forecast-system.pdf

Recommendations on the verification of local weather forecasts.

Author

P. Nurmi

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

11401-recommendations-verification-local-weather-forecasts.pdf

Assimilation of ozone retrievals from the MIPAS instrument on board ENVISAT

Author

A. Dethof

2003, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

9021-assimilation-ozone-retrievals-mipas-instrument-board-envisat.pdf

Monitoring of retrievals from the MIPAS and SCIAMACHY instruments on board ENVISAT.

Author

A. Dethof

2003, Report, Final Report for ESA contract 14458/00/NL/SF, ESA Contract Report

File

9026-monitoring-retrievals-mipas-and-sciamachy-instruments-board-envisat.pdf

Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings?

Author

F. Lalaurette

G. van der Grijn

2003, Conference Paper, Seminar on Predictability of weather and climate, 9-13 September 2002

File

75320-ensemble-forecasts-can-they-provide-useful-early-warnings.pdf

Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation.

Author

M. Latif

E. Roeckner

M. Botzet

M. Esch

H. Haak

S. Hagemann

J. Jungclaus

S. Legutke

H. Pohlmann

S. Marsland

U. Mikolajewich

2003, Conference Paper, Seminar on Predictability of weather and climate, 9-13 September 2002

File

75336-predictability-north-atlantic-thermohaline-circulation.pdf

Adaptive observations, the Hessian metric and singular vectors

Author

Martin Leutbecher

2003, Conference Paper, Seminar on Recent developments in data assimilation for atmosphere and ocean, 8-12 September 2003

File

75391-adaptive-observations-hessian-metric-and-singular-vectors.pdf

1D-Var tests with TMI and SSM/I observations in rainy areas

Author

Philippe Lopez

E. Moreau

2003, Conference Paper, ECMWF/GEWEX Workshop on Humidity Analysis, 8-11 July 2002

File

75435-1d-var-tests-tmi-and-ssmi-observations-rainy-areas.pdf

Search ECMWF publications

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Did the ECMWF seasonal forecast model outperform a statistical model over the last 15 years?

Forecasting of extreme seasonal precipitation: insight into the ECMWF potential

Report of the 15th meeting of Computer Representatives, 19-20 May 2003

On the usage of screen-level parameters and microwave brightness temperature for soil moisture analysis.

Monthly forecasting system.

RTIASI-4, a new version of the ECMWF fast radiative transfer model for the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer.

Systematic errors in the ECMWF forecasting system.

Report on the eleventh Security Representatives' Meeting 15-16 May 2003. (Not available for public release)

ECMWF ISLSCP-II near-surface dataset from ERA-40.

The assimilation of SSM/I and TMI rainfall rates in the ECMWF 4D-Var system

Inferring changes in terrestrial water storage using ERA-40 reanalysis data: The Mississippi River basin.

Reanalysis and reforecast of three major European storms of the 20th century using the ECMWF forecasting system

A new parametrization of turbulent orographic form drag.

Verification statistics and evaluations of ECMWF forecasts in 2002-2003

High clouds over oceans in the ECMWF 15-year and 45-year re-analyses

Skill of coupled model seasonal forecasts: A Bayesian assessment of ECMWF ENSO forecasts.

Ozone-radiation interactions in the ECMWF forecast system.

Recommendations on the verification of local weather forecasts.

Assimilation of ozone retrievals from the MIPAS instrument on board ENVISAT

Monitoring of retrievals from the MIPAS and SCIAMACHY instruments on board ENVISAT.

Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings?

Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation.

Adaptive observations, the Hessian metric and singular vectors

1D-Var tests with TMI and SSM/I observations in rainy areas

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