Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2015)

"Using ECMWF's Forecasts" (UEF) was held from 8 to 10 June 2015

UEF provides a forum for exchanging ideas and experiences on the use of ECMWF data and products. It is an opportunity for users in Europe and around the world to provide feedback to ECMWF on forecast performance and on our range of products, and for ECMWF to update users on recent developments of the forecasting system.

This year the focus was on 'Quantifying and communicating uncertainty'.

The theme

Forecasts are not complete without information on uncertainty: this was one of the closing messages of last year's UEF. We have taken up the challenge for this year's meeting, proposing "Quantifying and communicating uncertainty" as the driving theme.

Information about forecast uncertainty has been around for a number of years. Its estimation has made great progress but its visualisation and communication to wider audiences has been challenging. More and more National Weather Services and private weather providers recognise that uncertainty is an integral part of forecasts and information about it improves the ability to make decisions based on weather forecasts.

A discussion on quantifying, visualising and communicating uncertainty in weather forecasting seems timely and by partnering with its data users, ECMWF would like to provide a framework whereby ideas on how to make uncertainty more widely accepted can be discussed and shared.

Attendees are encouraged to submit an abstract for an oral or poster presentation on the meeting's theme. Note that ECMWF will provide information on the latest developments of its forecasting system and there will be a session where participants are encouraged to offer their feedback on ECMWF products and services.

Oral presentations

Martin Fengler (Meteomatics GmbH) PDF icon
Estimating uncertainty with the ECMWF ensembles
Roberto Buizza (ECMWF)
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Developments of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System
Thomas Haiden (ECMWF)
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ECMWF products to represent, quantify and communicate forecast uncertainty
David Richardson (ECMWF)
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ecCharts: Presentation of ensemble data and recent updates
Cihan Sahin (ECMWF)
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Probabilistic meteogram for long range outlooks
Federico Grazzini (ARPA-SIMC)
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Visualisation and communication of uncertainties in the SwAF (Swedish Armed Forces)
Martin Hagman ( METOCC, SwAF)
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Flood risk forecasts for England and Wales: production and communication
Jon Millard (Flood Forecasting Centre, Met Office)
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Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual predictions: An exploration of user needs amongst organisations in Europe
Andrea Taylor (University of Leeds)
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Next generation models at MeteoSwiss: communication challenges
Tania Weusthoff (MeteoSwiss)
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Probabilistic forecast information optimised to end-users’ applications: three diverse examples
Vanessa Stauch (DWD)

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Estimation of forecast uncertainty with graphical products
Nicole Girardot (Météo-France)
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More accuracy with less precision: recognizing the crucial role of uncertainty for developing high-res NWP systems
Tim Palmer (University of Oxford)
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Improving communication of weather forecast uncertainty: A path forward
Rebecca Morss (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
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Decider: Visualising a range of possible weather scenarios in the medium range and monthly forecast periods
Robert Neal (Met Office)
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On the use of ECMWF products for Civil Protection aims: can deterministic and probabilistic approach cooperate?
Arturo Pucillo (OSMER ARPA FVG)
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Quantifying uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecasts of indices
Christoph Spirig (MeteoSwiss)
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The UK National Severe Weather Warning Service - Guidance Unit Perspective
Dan Suri (Met Office)
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Poster presentations

Predictability of the extreme precipitation based on ECMWF ensemble forecasts for the catchment of the Danube and Tisza rivers
Imre Bonta (Hungarian Meteorological Service)
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Using ECMWF ensemble forecasts for hydrological forecast purpose at Hungarian Meteorological Service
Imre Bonta (Hungarian Meteorological Service) 
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Concept of operation RNLAF; "scenario forecasting"
Kristian Bruins (Royal Netherlands Air Force Joint Meteorological Group)
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Communicating forecast uncertainty - relevant or dispensable information for clients?
Christian Csekits (ZAMG)
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Application of ECMWF forecast products in RIMES member states
Itesh Dash (RIMES)
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26-30 August 2013. Two cases of heavy rain and intense thunderstorms in Western Mediterranean
Ana Genovés (AEMET)
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Experience with seasonal forecasting at the Bulgarian weather service
Ilian Gospodinov (National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology)
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Some aspects of recent weather forecasting procedures at the Finnish Meteorological Institute
Ilkka Juga (Finnish Meteorological Institute)
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Efforts to find a visualisation of probabilistic weather forecasts for public and professional use
Karin Jonsson and  Åsa Granström (SMHI)
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Communication of ZAMG warnings to the public
Susanne Lentner (ZAMG)
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Recent extreme wind cases in Croatia - ECMWF forecast evaluation
Nataša Strelec Mahović (Meteorological and Hydrological Service)

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A man-machine mix supplies the MeteoSwiss WEB & APP with forecast data
Michel Matter and Daniel Cattani (MeteoSwiss)
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Quantifying and communicating uncertainty illustrated by the example of forecast of heavy precipitation that caused catastrophic floods in Serbia and the region in May 2014
Aleksandar Nisavic (Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia)
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Fire weather components influencing wildfire behaviour under deep uncertainty
Thomas Petroliagkis (Joint Research Center)
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A comparative study of statistical post-processing methods for the calibration of ensemble forecasts
Nina Schuhen (Met Office)
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The prediction of low clouds for the time of the solar eclipse
Thomas Schumann (Deutscher Wetterdienst)
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Stochastic forecasts and extreme weather events. The case study of intense and devastating rains over NW Greece during 30/1-1/2/2015
Panagiotis Skrimizea (Hellenic National Meteorological Service)

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Uncertainties in extreme weather forecast - extreme weather Nina
Anne Solveig H Andersen (Met Norway)
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How the GAC-SMHI uses the forecast uncertainties
Albin Torsson (SMHI)


Programme Co-ordinator: Anna Ghelli

Event Adminsitration: Karen Clarke


PDF iconProgramme

You can also see an archive of past workshops

View full calendar of events