Seasonal forecast of fire danger indices from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service

This dataset offers modeled daily fire danger time series, driven by seasonal weather forecasts. It provides long-range predictions of meteorological conditions conducive to the initiation, spread, and persistence of fires. The fire danger metrics included in this dataset are part of an extensive dataset produced by the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) for the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS). EFFIS and GWIS are used for monitoring and forecasting fire danger at both European and global scales. The dataset incorporates fire danger indices from the U.S. Forest Service National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS), the Canadian Forest Service Fire Weather Index Rating System (FWI), and the Australian McArthur (Mark 5) rating systems.
This dataset was generated by driving the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast (GEFF) model with seasonal weather ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 5 (SEAS5) prediction system.These forecasts initially consist of 25 ensemble members until December 2016, referred to as re-forecasts. After that period, they consist of seasonal forecasts with 51 members. It is important to note that the re-forecast dataset was initialized using ERA-Interim analysis data, while forecast simulations from 2016 onward are initialized using ECMWF operational analysis. Therefore, it is suggested that the period 1981-2016 be used as a reference period, while the period 2017-to present as a real time forecast.
For both the re-forecast (1981-2016) and forecast periods (2017-present), the temporal resolution is daily forecasts at 12:00 local time, available once a month, with a prediction horizon of 216 days (equivalent to 7 months). The data records in this dataset will be extended over time as seasonal forcing data becomes available. Once the SEAS5 operation ceases, the dataset will be updated with the next ECMWF seasonal system (SEAS6). It is essential to note that this is not a real-time service, as real-time forecasts are accessible through the EFFIS web services.
These seasonal forecasts can be used to assess the performance of the forecasting system or to develop tools for statistically correcting forecast errors. ECMWF produces this dataset as the computational center for fire danger forecasting within the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) on behalf of the Joint Research Centre, which serves as the managing entity for this service.