Datasets

Cumulative Density Functions (CDF) describes the distribution of the values of a variable (e.g.temperature) as forecast by the ENS ensemble members. The CDF curve shows the proportion (in %) of ENS members...

Meteograms show a probabilistic interpretation of the ENS forecasts for specific locations using a box and whisker plot. It shows the time evolution of the distribution of several meteorological parameters on a single diagram...

Ensemble Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) is the mean MSLP of the ensemble members (in hPa) and detail is smoothed out. These charts show surface pressure patterns...

Spread usually, but not always, increases with forecast range. Spread refers to the uncertainty of the values of a parameter but it does not necessarily refer to the flow patterns...

The ensemble mean is the mean value derived from all the 50 ensemble members plus the control member. This value attempts to capture the general picture while smoothing out spurious detail...

The ensemble spread is a measure of the differences between the 50 ensemble members plus the control member and is represented by the standard deviation with respect to the ensemble mean...

Spread refers to the uncertainty of the values of a parameter but it does not necessarily refer to the flow patterns...

These diagrams aim to show the time evolution of regimes which are indicative of the likely weather in and around Europe.The winds across the Atlantic can usefully be classified into four regimes ...

The sea surface temperature is from the ensemble control run only. Sea surface temperature evolves according to a two-way coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Sea (or lake) surface temperature are also shown (ºC)...

The reliability diagram shows the reliability of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system (SEAS5) with ...

This chart shows the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagram for the three-month ...

This chart shows the spatial variation in the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) skill ...

The ECMWF seasonal forecasts (SEAS5) are produced every month with a 51-member ensemble at a ...

This chart shows the spatial variation in the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) for the ...

These charts show indices which indicate the susceptibility of the troposphere to support free convection. Typical values of the different indices depend on location and...

The leaf area index determines the degree of evapotranspiration. The index varies in a climatological way in the model, month by month (and so will not change in a different way if there is anomalous weather)...

Lightning flash densities are diagnosed from forecast values of hydrometeor content, CAPE (convective available potential energy), and cloud base height that has been output by the convection scheme...

**Note:** In **June 2023** ECMWF implemented a **major upgrade ...**

Maximum Wind gusts at 10 m above the earth's surface during the 6 hour period previous to the selected validity time are shown using colour shading. 10 m wind gusts are a post-processed product...

The reliability diagram shows the reliability of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system (SEAS5) with ...

This chart shows the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagram for the three-month ...

This chart shows the spatial variation in the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) skill ...

The ECMWF seasonal forecasts (SEAS5) are produced every month with a 51-member ensemble at a ...

Where precipitation is forecast, a type of precipitation can be assigned according to the temperature structure of the model atmosphere that includes the layers through which the model precipitation falls...

Total accumulated rainfall charts identify areas at greater risk of significant rainfall (or rain equivalent e.g.snowfall) but give no information regarding whether this occurs over a short or prolonged time period...