Datasets

Atmospheric Model Ensemble 15-day forecast (ENS), III-v-c: Shift of Tails (SOT) 1-day ranges

The products provide the shift-of-tails of single level parameters of instantaneous, averaged and accumulated values at each grid point. The products are encoded in GRIB form. For more information on the Extreme Forecast Index, please consult the ECMWF Forecast User Guide: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Extreme+Forecast+Index+-+EFI%2…

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Atmospheric Model Ensemble 15-day forecast (ENS), III-v-d: Shift of Tails (SOT) 3, 5 and 10-day ranges

The products provide the extreme forecast index of single level parameters of instantaneous, averaged and accumulated values at each grid point. The products are encoded in GRIB form. For more information on the Extreme Forecast Index, please consult the ECMWF Forecast User Guide: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Extreme+Forecast+Index+-+EFI%2…

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Atmospheric Model Ensemble 15-day forecast (ENS), III-vi-a: Ensemble means - Single level

The ENS provides the ensemble mean (or the ensemble median) forecast which tends to average out the less predictable atmospheric scales.

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Atmospheric Model Ensemble 15-day forecast (ENS), III-vi-b: Ensemble means - Pressure levels

The ENS provides the ensemble mean (or the ensemble median) forecast which tends to average out the less predictable atmospheric scales.

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Atmospheric Model Ensemble 15-day forecast (ENS), III-vii-a: Ensemble standard deviations - Single level

The spread of the ENS forecast, measured by the standard deviation (Std) of ENS values at a given point and lead time, is normalised against the mean of the spread of the 30 most recent 00UTC ENS (Mstd) for 00UTC runs (or 12UTC ENS (Mstd) for 30 most recent 12UTC ENS runs) for the same lead-times and geographical locations.

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Atmospheric Model Ensemble 15-day forecast (ENS), III-vii-b: Ensemble standard deviations - Pressure levels

The spread of the ENS forecast, measured by the standard deviation (Std) of ENS values at a given point and lead time, is normalised against the mean of the spread of the 30 most recent 00UTC ENS (Mstd) for 00UTC runs (or 12UTC ENS (Mstd) for 30 most recent 12UTC ENS runs) for the same lead-times and geographical locations.

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Atmospheric Model Ensemble 15-day forecast (ENS), III-viii: Tropical Cyclone tracks

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Probabilities: visibility

This chart shows probability information regarding visibility near the surface derived from the ...

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Probabilities: maximum of 10 m wind gust, last 24 hours

This chart shows probability information regarding the maximum gust at 10 m above the earth's ...

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Probabilities: total precipitation, last 24 hours

This chart shows probability information regarding 24 hour total precipitation derived from the ...

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Probabilities: mean wave period (day 10-15)

These charts show the probability of various mean periods of ocean waves 10-15 days ahead. The ...

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Probabilities: significant wave height (day 10-15)

These charts show probability of various heights of significant waves 10-15 days ahead. The ...

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Probabilities: 100 m wind speed

This chart shows probability information regarding wind speeds at 100 m above the earth's ...

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Probabilities: CAPE shear

This chart shows probability information regarding CAPE shear derived from the ECMWF ensemble ...

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Probabilities: MUCAPE

This chart shows probability information regarding MUCAPE derived from the ECMWF ensemble (ENS) ...

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Rain and mean sea level pressure

Precipitation totals include all precipitation types (rain, snow etc.) (in mm of rainfall or rainfall equivalent) falling in 6 hour or 12 hour periods using colour shading...

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Ranked probability skill score (RPSS) of 2 m temperature (week 3; day 15-21)

This diagram gives a measure of the effectiveness of the model. ...

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AIFS ENS Control: 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa temperature

The 850 hPa level is usually just above the boundary layer and at this level the day-night variation in temperature is generally negligible...

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AIFS ENS Control: Mean sea level pressure and 200 hPa wind

Wind speed at 200 hPa highlights the jet stream (areas of strong winds in the upper troposphere) which can help identify movement and development of depressions...

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AIFS ENS Control: Mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa wind speed

Wind speeds near the surface are roughly proportional to the distance between isobars so closely packed isobars mean strong surface winds...

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AIFS ENS Control: Rain and mean sea level pressure

Precipitation totals include all precipitation types (rain, snow etc.) (in mm of rainfall or rainfall equivalent) falling in 6 hour or 12 hour periods using colour shading...

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AIFS ENS Control: Significant wave height of all waves with various periods

Significant wave height can be shown to correspond to the average wave height of the top one-third highest waves. The wave period of windsea is generally <10s,...

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AIFS ENS Control: Temperature and geopotential at various pressure levels

In the northern hemisphere the air rotates anti-clockwise around low contour centres and clockwise around the high contour centres. In the southern hemisphere the air rotates clockwise around low contour centres and ...

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AIFS ENS Control: Total accumulated precipitation

Total accumulated rainfall charts identify areas at greater risk of significant rainfall (or rain equivalent e.g.snowfall) but give no information regarding whether this occurs over a short or prolonged time period...

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AIFS ENS Control: Total cloud cover

This display helps with the recognition of clouds of different layers, even when they overlap. Brighter colouring represents greater cloud cover. Cloud-free areas appear white while areas of full cloud cover at all levels appear dark grey (e.g. active fronts)...

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