Multi-model seasonal forecasts of river discharge for Europe from January 2021 to present

This dataset provides hydrological seasonal forecasts of monthly mean river discharge across Europe. Two hydrological model ensembles are provided. The first is an E-HYPE multi-model system comprising eight model realisations using a catchment-based resolution. The second comprises the E-HYPEgrid, VIC-WUR and EFAS (LISFLOOD) hydrological models at a 5km gridded resolution.
The initialisation of the hydrological seasonal forecast uses the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) daily gridded meteorological observations (EFAS-Meteo) up until the start of the forecast, and the subsequent integration of the meteorological seasonal forecasts using all 51 members of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system 5 (SEAS5) meteorological forecasts. A bias adjustment step using quantile mapping for temperature and precipitation was used for the E-HYPE and ViC-WUR models to minimize drift in the forecasts caused by biases in SEAS5 compared to EFAS-Meteo.
The final output is in the form of monthly mean river discharge for the coming seven months. The context of the forecasts is provided by upper and lower terciles of the historical EFAS-Meteo driven simulation for each month of the year.
This dataset is produced by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute on behalf of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The operational production is performed by C3S in collaboration with Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS).