C3S Seasonal Forecasts

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Seasonal forecasts provide a long-range outlook of changes in the Earth system over periods of a few weeks or months, as a result of predictable changes in some of the slow-varying components of the system. For example, ocean temperatures typically vary slowly, on timescales of weeks or months. As the ocean has an impact on the overlaying atmosphere, the variability of its properties (e.g. temperature) can modify both local and remote atmospheric conditions. Such modifications of the 'usual' atmospheric conditions are the essence of all long-range (e.g. seasonal) forecasts. Long-range forecasts of atmospheric conditions have large uncertainties. To quantify such uncertainties, long-range forecasts use ensembles, and meaningful forecast products reflect a distributions of outcomes.

Given the complex, non-linear interactions between the individual components of the Earth system, the best tools for long-range forecasting are climate models which include as many of the key components of the system and possible; typically, such models include representations of the atmosphere, ocean and land surface. These models are initialised with data describing the state of the system at the starting point of the forecast, and used to predict the evolution of this state in time.

The C3S provides a multi-system seasonal forecast service, where data produced by seven seasonal forecast systems from ECMWF, UK MetOffice, Meteo France, DWD, the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (cmcc), NCEP, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) developed, implemented and operated at forecast centres is collected, processed and combined to enable user-relevant applications.

The data includes forecasts created in real-time (since 2017) and retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) initialised at equivalent intervals during the period 1993-2016. The datasets present subdaily (6h) and daily data at an horizontal resolution of 1° x 1°.

The data is available from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS).

Please note the licence to use the C3S seasonal forecast products includes the licence to use non-European contributions to these datasets. These additional terms and conditions are described at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/api/v2/terms/static/Additional-licence-to-use-non-European-contributions.pdf

Period: 
from January 2017 to present
Keywords: 
Radiation, Temperature, Precipitation, Wind, Surface, Atmosphere
Range: 
Medium (15 days)
Extended (30 days)
Long (Months)
Note: 
Hindcasts data from January 1993 to 2016
Created by: 
Copernicus Climate Change Service
Provided by: 
Copernicus

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