Operational flood forecasting: a review of ensemble techniques

TitleOperational flood forecasting: a review of ensemble techniques
Publication TypeMiscellaneous
Year of Publication2008
AuthorsCloke, HL, Pappenberger, F
Secondary TitleTechnical Memorandum
Number574
Abstract

Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWPs), known as Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS), to drive their predictions. We review the scientific drivers of this shift towards ensemble flood forecasting and discuss several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems. We also critique the main case studies in the literature that claim ‘added value' of flood forecasts based on EPS and point to remaining key challenges in using EPS successfully.