Assessment of ECMWF forecasts: widespread rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon

Title
Assessment of ECMWF forecasts: widespread rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon
Technical memorandum
Date Published
01/2009
Secondary Title
ECMWF Technical Memoranda
Number
580
Author
M. Mujumdar
Franco Molteni
A Ghelli
Frédéric Vitart
Paul Dando
J.M. Slingo
Publisher
ECMWF
Abstract The skill of dynamical forecasts of widespread rainfall events (WSREs) over central India is examined using high-resolution models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The WSREs entail interactions between the large-scale monsoon circulation and the convective systems which are embedded within the boreal summer Inter Tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). A diagnostic analysis of the ECMWF forecasts of WSREs during 2007 is performed. Several features of the observed rainfall distribution and large-scale organisation of convection during WSREs are found to be realistically captured by the ECMWF forecasts. The paper acknowledges a potential wider scope for diagnosing the influence of remote and regional forcings on the organisation of large-scale convection. The appraisal could be extended to break phases associated with the evolution of large-scale suppressed convection.
URL https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/75781-assessment-ecmwf-forecasts-widespread-rainfall-events-during-indian-summer
DOI 10.21957/691kj4uk
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