Seasonal forecast skill over the Greater Horn of Africa: a verification atlas of System 4 and SEAS5 - part2/2

TitleSeasonal forecast skill over the Greater Horn of Africa: a verification atlas of System 4 and SEAS5 - part2/2
Publication TypeReport
Date Published03/2019
AuthorMacLeod, D
InstitutionECMWF
Abstract

Presenting a comparison of seasonal forecasts over the Greater Horn of Africa from System 4 and SEAS5. Results are presented for three-month forecasts of the long (March-May) and short rains (October-December) at all available lead times, followed by verification for single month targets of these seasons.

Verification of precipitation and 2m air temperature follows in separate sections, in each case showing mean climate, bias (against CHIRPS and ERA-Interim respectively), ensemble mean correlation. The final part of each section contains maps of the Relative Operating Characteristic area under curve, measuring model ability to discriminate events, for a range of percentile threshold exceedance events (namely, 10, 20, 25, 33, 50, 67, 75, 80, 90%ile exceedance).

URLhttps://www.ecmwf.int/node/18923
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