Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors

TitleEnsemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors
Publication TypeMiscellaneous
Year of Publication1999
AuthorsPuri, K, Barkmeijer, J, Palmer, TN
Secondary TitleTechnical Memorandum
Number298
Pagination30
Date PublishedDecember
PublisherECMWF
Place PublishedShinfield Park, Reading
Type of WorkTechnical Memorandum
Abstract

The usefulness of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system for tropical cyclone prediction is studied in terms of the spread in cyclone tracks and intensities. It is shown that significant spread in the tracks is obtained through the use of initial perturbations based on targeted singular vectors derived using linearised physics. Inclusion of stochastic physics in the forecast model leads to larger spread in the central pressures. The spread in the tracks shows high level of sensitivity to the background state used in deriving the singular vectors.