|Title||Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors|
|Year of Publication||1999|
|Authors||Puri, K, Barkmeijer, J, Palmer, TN|
|Secondary Title||Technical Memorandum|
|Place Published||Shinfield Park, Reading|
|Type of Work||Technical Memorandum|
The usefulness of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system for tropical cyclone prediction is studied in terms of the spread in cyclone tracks and intensities. It is shown that significant spread in the tracks is obtained through the use of initial perturbations based on targeted singular vectors derived using linearised physics. Inclusion of stochastic physics in the forecast model leads to larger spread in the central pressures. The spread in the tracks shows high level of sensitivity to the background state used in deriving the singular vectors.