|Title||Assessment of ECMWF forecasts: widespread rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon|
|Publication Type||Technical memorandum|
|Secondary Title||ECMWF Technical Memorandum|
|Authors||Mujumdar, M, Molteni, F, Ghelli, A, Vitart, F, Dando, P, Slingo, JM|
The skill of dynamical forecasts of widespread rainfall events (WSREs) over central India is examined using high-resolution models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The WSREs entail interactions between the large-scale monsoon circulation and the convective systems which are embedded within the boreal summer Inter Tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). A diagnostic analysis of the ECMWF forecasts of WSREs during 2007 is performed. Several features of the observed rainfall distribution and large-scale organisation of convection during WSREs are found to be realistically captured by the ECMWF forecasts. The paper acknowledges a potential wider scope for diagnosing the influence of remote and regional forcings on the organisation of large-scale convection. The appraisal could be extended to break phases associated with the evolution of large-scale suppressed convection.