Verification statistics and evaluations of ECMWF forecasts in 2003-2004.

TitleVerification statistics and evaluations of ECMWF forecasts in 2003-2004.
Publication TypeMiscellaneous
Year of Publication2005
AuthorsLalaurette, F, Bidlot, J-R, Ferranti, L, Ghelli, A, Grazzini, F, Leutbecher, M, Paulsen, J-E, Viterbo, P
Secondary TitleTechnical Memorandum

This document presents recent verification statistics and evaluation of ECMWF forecasts. Recent changes to the data assimilation / forecasting and post-processing system are summarised in Section 2. Verification results of the medium range free atmosphere ECMWF forecasts are presented in Section 2, including, when available, a comparison of our forecast performance with other global forecasting centres. Section 3 deals with the verification of ECMWF weather parameters and oceanic wave forecasts. Section 4 has been added this year to describe two "severe weather" studies - one on the forecast performance when dealing with weather patterns associated with severe floods over the southern alpine region, and the other on tropical cyclone forecast accuracy. Finally, Section 5 provides insights into the performance of the seasonal forecast systems. A short technical note describing the scores used in this report is given in Annex A.