Scale-dependent verification of ensemble forecasts

TitleScale-dependent verification of ensemble forecasts
Publication TypeTechnical memorandum
Date Published01/2008
Secondary TitleECMWF Technical Memorandum
Number551
AuthorsJung, T, Leutbecher, M
PublisherECMWF
Abstract

A scale-dependent verification of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) in the Northern Hemisphere is presented. The relationship between spread and skill is investigated alongside probabilistic forecast skill for planetary, synoptic and sub-synoptic spectral bands. The filtering is accomplished using total and zonal wavenumber filters. Diagnosed overdispersiveness of ECMWF EPS in the short-range is primarily due to excessive amount of spread on synoptic scales. Diagnosed underdispersiveness of the ensemble beyond day 5 of the forecast, can be explained by too little spread on both synoptic and planetary scales.

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