TY - GEN
AU - T. Jung
AU - Martin Leutbecher
AB - A scale-dependent verification of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) in the Northern Hemisphere is presented. The relationship between spread and skill is investigated alongside probabilistic forecast skill for planetary, synoptic and sub-synoptic spectral bands. The filtering is accomplished using total and zonal wavenumber filters. Diagnosed overdispersiveness of ECMWF EPS in the short-range is primarily due to excessive amount of spread on synoptic scales. Diagnosed underdispersiveness of the ensemble beyond day 5 of the forecast, can be explained by too little spread on both synoptic and planetary scales.
BT - ECMWF Technical Memoranda
DA - 01/2008
DO - 10.21957/wh8m7fgoa
LA - eng
M1 - 551
N2 - A scale-dependent verification of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) in the Northern Hemisphere is presented. The relationship between spread and skill is investigated alongside probabilistic forecast skill for planetary, synoptic and sub-synoptic spectral bands. The filtering is accomplished using total and zonal wavenumber filters. Diagnosed overdispersiveness of ECMWF EPS in the short-range is primarily due to excessive amount of spread on synoptic scales. Diagnosed underdispersiveness of the ensemble beyond day 5 of the forecast, can be explained by too little spread on both synoptic and planetary scales.
PB - ECMWF
PY - 2008
EP - 17
T2 - ECMWF Technical Memoranda
TI - Scale-dependent verification of ensemble forecasts
UR - https://www.ecmwf.int/node/10324
ER -