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Model Uncertainty Representation in COSMO-DE-EPS

Author

Susanne Theis

Michael Buchhold

Christoph Gebhardt

Regina Kohlhepp

Andreas Röpnack

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79567-model-uncertainty-representation-cosmo-de-eps.pdf

Model uncertainty estimation in global ocean models: Stochastic parametrizations of ocean mixing

Author

Stephan Juricke

Tim Palmer

Antje Weisheimer

Laure Zanna

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79568-model-uncertainty-estimation-global-ocean-models-stochastic-parametrizations-ocean-mixing.pdf

Representing model uncertainty for climate forecasts

Author

Antje Weisheimer

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79569-representing-model-uncertainty-climate-forecasts.pdf

Impact of a stochastic deep convection scheme using cellular automata in the meso-scale ensemble prediction system; Harmon-EPS

Author

Lisa Bengtsson

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79570-impact-stochastic-deep-convection-scheme-using-cellular-automata-meso-scale-ensemble.pdf

Parameter uncertainty of chaotic systems

Author

Heikki Haario

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79571-parameter-uncertainty-chaotic-systems.pdf

Inducing Tropical Cyclones to Undergo Brownian Motion

Author

Daniel Hodyss

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79572-inducing-tropical-cyclones-undergo-brownian-motion.pdf

Model error representation in Meteo France ensemble NWP system

Author

Laure Raynaud

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79763-model-error-representation-meteo-france-ensemble-nwp-system.pdf

Ensemble data assimilation using a unified representation of model error

Author

Chiara Piccolo

Mike Cullen

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79845-ensemble-data-assimilation-using-unified-representation-model-error.pdf

Mesoscale convective systems as a source of model error

Author

Glenn Shutts

2016, Conference Paper, ECMWF/WWRP Workshop: Model Uncertainty

File

79749-mesoscale-convective-systems-source-model-error.pdf

Advances in data assimilation techniques and their relevance to satellite data assimilation

Author

A. Lorenc

2015, Conference Paper, Seminar on Use of Satellite Observations in Numerical Weather Prediction, 8-12 September 2014

File

75448-advances-data-assimilation-techniques-and-their-relevance-satellite-data-assimilation.pdf

Advances in model physics and their relevance to satellite data assimilation

Author

J.-F. Mahfouf

2015, Conference Paper, Seminar on Use of Satellite Observations in Numerical Weather Prediction, 8-12 September 2014

File

75523-advances-model-physics-and-their-relevance-satellite-data-assimilation.pdf

Assimilation in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere: role of radiances

Author

B. Ruston

N. Baker

S. Swadley

K. Hoppel

2015, Conference Paper, Seminar on Use of Satellite Observations in Numerical Weather Prediction, 8-12 September 2014

File

76238-assimilation-upper-stratosphere-and-mesosphere-role-radiances.pdf

Evaluation of ECMWF forecasts, including 2014-2015 upgrades

Author

Thomas Haiden

F. Prates

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

14691-evaluation-ecmwf-forecasts-including-2014-2015-upgrades.pdf

An evaluation of FY-3C satellite data quality at ECMWF and the Met Office

Author

Qifeng Lu

Heather Lawrence

Niels Bormann

Stephen English

Katie Lean

Nigel Atkinson

W. Bell

F. Carminati

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

14692-evaluation-fy-3c-satellite-data-quality-ecmwf-and-met-office.pdf

Impacts of parameterized orographic drag on the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation

Author

Irina Sandu

Peter Bechtold

Anton Beljaars

Alessio Bozzo

Felix Pithan

T.G. Shepherd

Ayrton Zadra

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

14694-impacts-parameterized-orographic-drag-northern-hemisphere-winter-circulation.pdf

New developments in the diagnosis and verification of high-impact weather forecasts

Author

Mark Rodwell

Laura Ferranti

Thomas Haiden

L. Magnusson

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15255-new-developments-diagnosis-and-verification-high-impact-weather-forecasts.pdf

The modelling infrastructure of the Integrated Forecasting System: Recent advances and future challenges

Author

Willem Deconinck

M. Hamrud

S. Malardel

G. Mozdzynski

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15259-modelling-infrastructure-integrated-forecasting-system-recent-advances-and-future-challenges.pdf

Understanding the ECMWF winter surface temperature biases over Antarctica

Author

Emanuel Dutra

Irina Sandu

Gianpaolo Balsamo

Anton Beljaars

Etienne Vignon

E. Brun

Helene Freville

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15262-understanding-ecmwf-winter-surface-temperature-biases-over-antarctica.pdf

Convectively coupled Kelvin Waves: From linear theory to global models

Author

M. Herman

Z. Fuchs

D. Raymond

Peter Bechtold

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15273-convectively-coupled-kelvin-waves-linear-theory-global-models.pdf

Evaluation of ECMWF forecasts, including 2014-2015 upgrades

Author

Thomas Haiden

Martin Janousek

Peter Bauer

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15275-evaluation-ecmwf-forecasts-including-2014-2015-upgrades.pdf

Significance of changes in medium-range forecast scores

Author

Alan Geer

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15287-significance-changes-medium-range-forecast-scores.pdf

Numerical sensitivity of the ECMWF model to Semi-Lagrangian departure point iterations

Author

Michail Diamantakis

L. Magnusson

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15302-numerical-sensitivity-ecmwf-model-semi-lagrangian-departure-point-iterations.pdf

Diagnosis of northern hemispheric regime behaviour during winter 2013/14

Author

Mark Rodwell

Laura Ferranti

L. Magnusson

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15305-diagnosis-northern-hemispheric-regime-behaviour-during-winter-201314.pdf

A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble

Author

N. Zagar

Roberto Buizza

J. Tribbia

2015, Technical memorandum, ECMWF Technical Memoranda

File

15309-three-dimensional-multivariate-modal-analysis-atmospheric-predictability-application-ecmwf.pdf

Search ECMWF publications

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Model Uncertainty Representation in COSMO-DE-EPS

Model uncertainty estimation in global ocean models: Stochastic parametrizations of ocean mixing

Representing model uncertainty for climate forecasts

Impact of a stochastic deep convection scheme using cellular automata in the meso-scale ensemble prediction system; Harmon-EPS

Parameter uncertainty of chaotic systems

Inducing Tropical Cyclones to Undergo Brownian Motion

Model error representation in Meteo France ensemble NWP system

Ensemble data assimilation using a unified representation of model error

Mesoscale convective systems as a source of model error

Advances in data assimilation techniques and their relevance to satellite data assimilation

Advances in model physics and their relevance to satellite data assimilation

Assimilation in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere: role of radiances

Evaluation of ECMWF forecasts, including 2014-2015 upgrades

An evaluation of FY-3C satellite data quality at ECMWF and the Met Office

Impacts of parameterized orographic drag on the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation

New developments in the diagnosis and verification of high-impact weather forecasts

The modelling infrastructure of the Integrated Forecasting System: Recent advances and future challenges

Understanding the ECMWF winter surface temperature biases over Antarctica

Convectively coupled Kelvin Waves: From linear theory to global models

Evaluation of ECMWF forecasts, including 2014-2015 upgrades

Significance of changes in medium-range forecast scores

Numerical sensitivity of the ECMWF model to Semi-Lagrangian departure point iterations

Diagnosis of northern hemispheric regime behaviour during winter 2013/14

A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble

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