Workshop: Observational campaigns for better weather forecasts

ECMWF | Reading | 10-13 June 2019

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Workshop description

This workshop aimed to strengthen the links between observational campaigns and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to (1) help observational campaigns optimise their use of forecasts and knowledge of forecast errors and (2) help NWP system development make better use of observational campaign data. Forecast errors in NWP, such as in the ECMWF forecast system, often motivate field campaigns, and forecasts are used in many ways during these campaigns. This workshop invited experts involved in recent or future campaigns that have made or will make use of ECMWF data to share their experiences and provide feedback on their use of ECMWF forecasts. The process of campaign planning, diagnostics and improved understanding of model errors, and ultimately the improvement of NWP systems were key themes of the workshop.

ECMWF supports observational campaigns with real-time forecasts, and also with special forecasts with additional output and products. Campaigns are taking place all over the globe from the polar regions to the deep tropics, where the scientific motivation can be very different. However, regardless of the scientific scope, field campaigns share many aspects of using ECMWF forecasts and these will be discussed during this workshop.

Key questions that were addressed:

  • How are field campaigns making use of ECMWF data, for defining questions, flight planning, choice of period, etc.? Are there any obstacles to the use of this data?
  • How is NWP development making use of observational campaign data? Can we identify concrete examples of  model or forecast improvement based on past campaigns?
  • How can observational campaigns help us identify and diagnose problems in models, observation operators, etc.?
  • How can knowledge and diagnosis of NWP problems help define future field campaigns? What gaps in knowledge could future campaigns  address?
  • What diagnostic tools can help improve the links between observational campaigns and NWP development? How can these tools be improved?
  • How can observational campaigns learn from each other in terms of their usage and diagnosis of ECMWF forecasts?
  • What can ECMWF do to optimize the utility of data and modelling capabilities to support observational campaigns?

Presentations and recordings

Monday 10 June 2019

Opening and welcome
Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)

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How ECMWF supports field campaigns
Emma Pidduck (ECMWF)

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From Models to Data
Bjorn Stevens (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

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Airborne active remote-sensing observations of the extratropical troposphere and lower stratosphere with a special focus on the NAWDEX field experiment
Andreas Schäfler (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt)

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Experiences from Arctic field campaigns: Weather forecasting and evaluations, and model comparisons
Michael Tjernström (Stockholm University)

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Synergetic use of field campaign observations and detailed simulations to improve NWP models at Météo-France
Véronique Ducrocq (Météo-France/CNRM)

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Application of Ensemble-based Sensitivity to ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts in Field Campaigns
Ryan Torn (University at Albany, SUNY)

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Observations to operations in the Met Office Unified Model
Paul Field (Met Office, Univ. of Leeds)

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How ARM/ASR observations have contributed to ECMWF model development
Irina Sandu (ECMWF)

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Operational briefing
Jeremy Dehart (USAF Reserve Hurricane Hunters), Ryan Rickert (53 WRS Hurricane Hunters)

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Tuesday 11 June 2019

Is it time for interactivity and 3D? New approaches to analysing NWP data for observational campaigns using 3D and ensemble visualization
Marc Rautenhaus (Universität Hamburg)

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Diagnosing Forecast Sensitivity for Field Campaigns using Adjoints
James Doyle (Naval Research Laboratory)

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Impact assessment approaches for field campaign data
Mohamed Dahoui (ECMWF)

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Learning about clouds and circulation during EUREC4A
Sandrine Bony (CNRS, LMD/IPSL, Sorbonne University)

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Cloudy boundary layers over the Northeast Pacific and Southern Ocean: Field observations and ERA5
Chris Bretherton (University of Washington)

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Field Experiments for NWP: The LITFASS Experience
Frank Beyrich (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

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FESSTVaL: Field Experiment on sub-mesoscale spatio-temporal variability in Lindenberg
Daniel Klocke (Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research, DWD)

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RALI: the French radar-lidar airborne platform for cloud dynamics and microphysics studies
Julien Delanoë (IPSL, UVSQ Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Université, CNRS)

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Examples of targeted high-altitude airborne dropsonde deployment strategies for improved tropical cyclone and winter storm prediction
Peter Black (I.M. Systems Group)

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Upper Ocean Data Collection during Operational Hurricane Reconnaissance Missions
Elizabeth Sanabia (U.S. Naval Academy)

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New observational strategies for operational global and hurricane model improvements using airborne Tropical Cyclone and Winter Storm surveillance flights
Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC)

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Analysis and forecast using dropsonde data from inner-core region of tropical cyclones obtained during the aircraft missions of T-PARCII
Kosuke Ito (University of the Ryukyus)

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Wednesday 12 June 2019

The impact of dropsonde and extra radiosonde observations from the field campaigns NAWDEX and SHOUT in 2016
Martin Weissmann (DWD/LMU)

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Atmospheric River Reconnaissance to Improve Forecasts: Needs, Approach and Underlying Science
Vijay Tallapragada (NOAA/NCEP)

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The gauging and modelling of rivers in the sky
David Lavers (ECMWF)

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Forecast products for flight planning from a researchers' perspective
Julian Quinting (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

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Comparison between airborne remote sensing observations of an extratropical cyclone and short-term forecasts using a hierarchy of models.
Gwendal Riviere (LMD/IPSL, ENS, PSL Research University, École Polytechnique, Université Paris Saclay, Sorbonne Universités, CNRS)

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ASKOS-WIND – A Contribution to the Aeolus CAL/VAL Campaign in Cape Verde in June-July 2020
Peter Knippertz (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

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Improving NWP models with observations from the Iceland Greenland Seas Project
Ian Renfrew (University of East Anglia)

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What will happen during YOPP SOP3?
Gunilla Svensson (Stockholm University)

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Arctic Clouds - Evaluating Modelled Cloud with Field Observations
Ian Brooks (University of Leeds)

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YOPP supports the Japanese Arctic research cruise in 2018
Jun Inoue (National Institute of Polar Research)

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Thursday 13 June 2019

TEAMx: A coordinated effort to investigate transport and exchange processes in the atmosphere over mountains
Vanda Grubišić (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

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Global forecasts of atmospheric gravity waves for observational campaigns
Isabell Krisch (DLR)

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The Strateole-2 long-duration balloon project in the deep tropics: benefiting from and improving weather forecasts?
Albert Hertzog (LMD/IPSL)

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The CNES stratospheric balloon activities: capabilities, mission and operations
André Vargas (Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales)

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Saildrone: A global class Unmanned Surface Sailing Vehicle for air-sea interaction observation and its potential as a reliable data source for NWP models
Dongxiao Zhang (JISAO/University of Washington and NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)

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Posters

Assessing the predictability of mesoscale precipitation processes in landfalling atmospheric rivers using AR Recon dropsonde observations
Forest Cannon (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

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Impacts of Dropsonde Observations on the Predictability of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers
Luca Delle Monache (Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego)

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Field Campaign Support by the NCAR Earth Observing Laboratory
Vanda Grubišić (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

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Potential Contributions of Airborne Radio Occultation Observations in Field Campaigns to Forecast Improvement of Hurricanes and Atmospheric Rivers
Jennifer S. Haase (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD)

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Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO): Supporting Forecast Improvements through Targeted Data Collection
Anna Wilson (University of California San Diego)

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Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (EFSO) technique for global observing system experiments (OSEs)
Akira Yamazaki (JAMSTEC)

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Organising committee

Linus Magnusson (Tropical cyclone diagnostics)
Irina Sandu (Development of model parameterisations)
Emma Pidduck (Data Services)
Mark Rodwell (Diagnostics of convection/predictability)
David Lavers (Diagnostics of atmospheric rivers)
Mohamed Dahoui (Observation usage in data assimilation)
Jonathan Day (Diagnostics of Arctic processes)

Questions for the working groups

Programme (incl. presentations and recordings)

Local information

Contact


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