Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2019)

ECMWF | Reading | 3-6 June 2019

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A forum to discuss the use and performance of ECMWF's forecasts and related products

“Using ECMWF’s Forecasts” provides a forum for exchanging ideas and experiences on the use of ECMWF data and products. It is open to all ECMWF forecast users around the world and provides an opportunity to give feedback to ECMWF on forecast performance and on the range of available products, and to learn about recent developments of ECMWF’s forecasting system.

2019 theme: “The strength of ensembles”

National weather services and private weather providers have recognised the importance of ensemble forecasts and that information about uncertainty improves the ability to make decisions based on weather forecasts. ‘Forecasts are not complete without information on uncertainty’ was one of the closing messages of a past UEF meeting. In 2019 return to the topic of ensembles and their strength.

Twenty-five years ago ECMWF was one of the first forecasting centres to start issuing operational ensemble forecasts. The implementation of these ensembles induced a paradigm shift in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Centres moved from providing a single forecast to issuing a range of forecasts that can be used to identify possible future scenarios, to compute the probability of events of interest, and in general to estimate forecast confidence levels. Today, ensembles are routinely used to provide estimates of the probability distributions of analyses and forecasts. Great progress has been made to aid their visualisation and communication to wider audiences. 

The UEF meeting offered an opportunity for participants to showcase the strength of ensembles. The meeting also provided a framework where participants shared their experiences with ECMWF data and provided feedback on ECMWF products.

UEF2019 focused on the following thematic areas:

 

  • Processing of model outputs: this session was dedicated to model output developments.

  • Visualisation: this session included contributions about the visualisation of ensembles and derived products

  • Verification and diagnostics: this session focused on the assessment of the skill and consistency of ensemble forecasts, including impacts. 

  • Application and Impact forecasting: this session looked at how weather forecasts are used in applications for sectors such as water, energy, agriculture, fire and health. It featured case studies showing the strength of ensembles in such applications.

Posters

Strength of ensembles in application forecasting: from hourly through to sub-seasonal forecasts
Isla Finney (Lake Street Consulting Ltd)

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CTBTO experience in visualisation of ensembles and derived products
Jolanta Kusmierczyk-Michulec (CTBTO)

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How predictable were Arctic cyclones in summer on medium-range timescales?
Mio Matsueda (Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba)

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Seamless Probabilistic Forecasts from IMPROVER
Ken Mylne (Met Office)

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IMPROVER - the new probabilistic post processing system at the Met Office
Nigel Roberts (Met Office)

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The new Extreme Weather Index as a possible tool to predict high impact weather
Thomas Schumann (Deutscher Wetterdienst)

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Prediction of Overrunning Snowfall in Ankara on the 14th of December 2018 with ECMWF Ensemble Products
Fevzi Burak Tekin (Turkish State Meteorological Service), Yusuf Ziya Yavuz (Turkish State Meteorological Service)

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Elaboration of the Recorded Highest Daily Total Precipitation in Ovacık with ECMWF Products (Antalya, Turkey, 17th of December 2018)
Elif Müdrike Özmutlu (Turkish State Meteorological Service ), Murat Acar (Turkish State Meteorological Service)

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Presentations and recordings

Monday 3 June 2019

Welcome and housekeeping
Anna Ghelli (ECMWF), Florence Rabier (ECMWF)

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ECMWF product development
David Richardson (ECMWF)

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ECMWF strategic projects: an overview
Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)

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ECMWF forecast performance
Thomas Haiden (ECMWF)

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Tuesday 4 June 2019

Digital scribe

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Informing anticipatory humanitarian action: a framework for using ECMWF forecasts effectively
Erica Thompson (London School of Economics)

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GloFAS extended range flood forecast skill for the major river basins in Bangladesh
Sazzad Hossain (University of Reading)

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Agricultural applications of ECMWF ensemble forecasts in Africa
Sippora Stellingwerf (Weather Impact)

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Using ensemble weather forecasts in agronomy modelling
Ivana Aleksovska (Météo-France)

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Strategies for optimising operational decisions using ensemble marine forecasts
Ken Mylne (Met Office)

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The strength of ensembles lies not in probability forecasting
Leonard Smith (CATS at London School of Economics)

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ECMWF research: near and distant future plans
Andy Brown (ECMWF)

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The ECMWF Ensemble within the Copernicus European and Global Flood Awareness Systems (EFAS & GloFAS)
Ervin Zsoter (ECMWF)

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Extended-range product and diagnostic developments
Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)

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Wednesday 5 June 2019

Applications of ensemble prediction systems at Météo-France
Marie Boisserie (Météo-France), Nicole Girardot (Météo-France)

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Ensemble based seven day high impact weather outlook
Guido Schroeder (DWD)

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Progressive warnings with conservative forecasting
Elín Björk Jónasdóttir (Icelandic Met Office)

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Challenges and Limits in Ensemble Weather Prediction
Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)

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Users of ECMWF/Copernicus data in the spotlight – A user perspective on current and future cloud-based data systems (not live streamed)
Julia Wagemann (ECMWF)

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Thursday 6 June 2019

Probabilistic fire spread prediction: The case of the deadly wildfire in Mati, Greece
Theodore Giannaros (National Observatory of Athens)

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Quantifying uncertainties and confidence level in ATM simulations
Christian Maurer (ZAMG)

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Goodbye ERA-Interim, hello ERA5
Hans Hersbach (ECMWF)

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Seasonal forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service
Eduardo Penabad Ramos (ECMWF)

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Programme (incl. presentations and recordings)


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