ECMWF | Reading | 2-5 September 2019
Subseasonal and seasonal forecasting: recent progress and future prospects
More than two decades ago, seasonal forecasting started as a pilot project at ECMWF. Now it is a corner-stone of climate services. Originally a spin-off from seasonal forecasting, the sub-seasonal range covered the then so-called predictability desert; now it is a key building block of the seamless forecasting strategy, with clear prospects for useful skill gains at week 3 and 4.
Although the predictable processes and predictability drivers differ between the subseasonal and seasonal scales, prediction at these time ranges is a combination of initial and boundary problems. Sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions act as a bridge between weather and climate.
This seminar will review recent advances in our understanding of the predictability at these time scales. It will present current forecasting capabilities, and summarise recent but consolidated findings from numerical experimentation and exploitation of public data bases. It will also provide a perspective of incipient developments related with data exploration, forecast products and predictability drivers, which will shape the future of seamless forecasting systems.
The seminar is part of ECMWF's educational programme and is aimed at young scientists but also more established scientists that want to engage more with subseasonal and seasonal forecasting.
Sessions and programme
Session 1: Basis for predictability at the extended and seasonal range
Chair - Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
Session 2: Physical processes, modelling and initialisation requirements
Chair - Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
Session 3: System Design
Chair - Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
Session 4: Detecting and exploiting skill
Chair - Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)
Session 5: Databases for science and applications
Chair - Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)
Registration is now closed.
Posters should be standard A0 size (portrait orientation), 841mm (width) x 1189mm (height).
The registration fee is 250 GBP for participants not residing in one of ECMWF's Member or Co-operating states. This includes an ice-breaker, one evening dinner and coffee breaks. Please refer to payment information.
Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Anca Brookshaw, Laura Ferranti, Tim Stockdale, Frederic Vitart, Antje Weisheimer