Annual Seminar 2019

ECMWF | Reading | 2-5 September 2019

Subseasonal and seasonal forecasting: recent progress and future prospects

More than two decades ago, seasonal forecasting started as a pilot project at ECMWF. Now it is a corner-stone of climate services. Originally a spin-off from seasonal forecasting, the sub-seasonal range covered the then so-called predictability desert; now it is a key building block of the seamless forecasting strategy, with clear prospects for useful skill gains at week 3 and 4.

Although the predictable processes and predictability drivers differ between the subseasonal and seasonal scales, prediction at these time ranges is a combination of initial and boundary problems. Sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions act as a bridge between weather and climate.

This seminar will review recent advances in our understanding of the predictability at these time scales. It will present current forecasting capabilities, and summarise recent but consolidated findings from numerical experimentation and exploitation of public data bases. It will also provide a perspective of incipient developments related with data exploration, forecast products and predictability drivers, which will shape the future of seamless forecasting systems.

Seminar aims

The seminar is part of ECMWF's educational programme and is aimed at young scientists but also more established scientists that want to engage more with subseasonal and seasonal forecasting.

Sessions and speakers

Session 1: Basis for predictability at the extended and seasonal range 
Chair - Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

Brian Hoskins (Imperial College)
Roberto Buizza (Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant’Anna Pisa)
Franco Molteni (ECMWF)

Session 2: Physical processes, modelling and initialisation requirements
Chair - Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)

Magdalena Alsonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
Steven Woolnough (University of Reading)
Hisashi Nakamura (University of Tokyo)
Timo Vilhma (FMI)
Emanuel Dutra (University of Lisbon)
Daniela Domeisen (ETH Zürich)
Angela Benedetti (ECMWF)
Adam Scaife (Met Office)

Session 3:  System Design
Chair - Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
Carolyn Reynolds (NRL)
Steven Pawson (NASA)
Oscar Alves (BoM)

Session 4: Detecting and exploiting skill
Chair - Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)

David Stephenson (University of Exeter)
Timothy delSole (George Mason University)
Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)
Johanna Baehr (University of Hamburg)

Session 5: Databases for science and applications
Chair - Laura Ferranti (ECMWF)

Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
Kathleen Pegion (COLA-GMU)
Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)
Francisco Doblas Reyes (BSC)
Marlene Kretschmer (PIK-Potsdam)
Peter Bauer (ECMWF)

Attendance information

To register, please complete the online registration form by 28 June 2019.

This seminar is free to participants from ECMWF's Member and Co-operating States. We will charge a registration fee (see below) for any other applicants.

Please note that no funds are available from ECMWF to support participant's attendance at the seminar.

The seminar is open to a maximum of 100 participants.

The deadline for registration is 28 June 2019.

Call for Poster Abstracts

Attendees are invited to submit poster abstracts for display during the Annual Seminar. Posters on the areas of data exploration, skill detection and applications are encouraged.

Abstracts for the posters will be reviewed by the Organising Committee. Submitters will be notified by 12 July whether their poster has been selected or not.

Posters should be standard A0 size (portrait orientation), 841mm (width) x 1189mm (height).

The submission deadline is 28 June.

Registration fee

The registration fee is 250 GBP for participants not residing in one of ECMWF's Member or Co-operating states. This includes an ice-breaker, one evening dinner and coffee breaks.

EMS travel award

The European Meteorological Society will sponsor one scientist to attend the seminar in its Young Scientist Travel Awards scheme. The award is to support participation of outstanding students and young scientists at EMS-co-sponsored conferences. The award consists of a financial contribution towards travel expenses.

The deadline for applications is 12 June 2019.

Organising committee

Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Anca Brookshaw, Laura Ferranti, Tim Stockdale, Frederic Vitart, Antje Weisheimer