This five-day module is a combination of lectures, hands-on practicals and group discussion sessions.

The predictability of the atmosphere in the medium and extended range will be considered, including different aspects of the Earth system which give rise to predictability on longer time scales. Methods for creating a probabilistic forecast system and its verification will be presented.

Main topics:

  • Theoretical ideas - chaos, predictability limits
  • Ensemble methods - taking account of uncertainty in initial conditions and in the model
  • Predictability in the extended range - ocean, sea-ice, stratosphere, land
  • Probabilistic forecast initialisation, modelling, evaluation and verification
  • ECMWF medium-range, monthly and seasonal systems.

Please note that this course does not cover methodologies for downscaling/post-processing or discuss decadal prediction.


Participants should have a good meteorological and mathematical background, and are expected to be familiar with the contents of standard meteorological and mathematical textbooks.

Introductory material not covered by the course can be found in our lecture note series.

Some practical experience in numerical weather prediction is an advantage.

All lectures will be given in English.