Comparison of scores of model cycle 38r1 (combination of research experiments and the current e-suite) and cycle 37r3 (the current operational model) verified by the respective analyses or radiosonde observations at 00UTC for 2 June 2011 to 10 May 2012.
| anomaly correlation |
rms error |
standard deviation |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| europe | against analysis | Relative humidity | 300hPa | |||
| 700hPa | ||||||
| Temperature | 100hPa | |||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 200hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| europe n.afr |
against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | |||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 200hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| n.hem | against analysis | 10m wind | ||||
| Relative humidity | 300hPa | |||||
| 700hPa | ||||||
| Wave height | ||||||
| Temperature | 100hPa | |||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 200hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 200hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| s.hem | against analysis | 10m wind | ||||
| Relative humidity | 300hPa | |||||
| 700hPa | ||||||
| Wave height | ||||||
| Temperature | 100hPa | |||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 200hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 200hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| Geopotential | 100hPa | |||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| tropics | against analysis | 10m wind | ||||
| Relative humidity | 300hPa | |||||
| 700hPa | ||||||
| Wave height | ||||||
| Temperature | 100hPa | |||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 200hPa | |||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| against observations | Temperature | 100hPa | ||||
| 500hPa | ||||||
| 850hPa | ||||||
| 1000hPa | ||||||
| Wind | 200hPa | |||||
| 850hPa |
Symbol legend: for a given forecast step... (d: score difference, s: confidence interval width)
Cy38r1 far better than Cy37r3 statistically significant (the confidence bar above zero by more than its height )(d/s>3)
Cy38r1 better than Cy37r3 statistically significant (d/s≥1)
Cy38r1 better than Cy37r3, yet not statistically significant (d/s≥0.5)
not really any difference between Cy37r3 and Cy38r1
Cy38r1 worse than Cy37r3, yet not statistically significant (d/s≤-0.5)
Cy38r1 worse than Cy37r3 statistically significant (d/s≤-1)
Cy38r1 far worse than Cy37r3 statistically significant (the confidence bar below zero by more than its height) (d/s<-3)
Statistical significance evaluated by paired t-test for 95% significance level.