Set III - Atmospheric model Ensemble 15-day forecast (ENS)

Order real-time forecasts

Ensemble (ENS) of forecasts providing an estimate of the reliability of a single forecast.

ENS offers  "High Frequency products"  until step 144:

  • 4 daily runs: 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC
  • hourly until step 90
  • 3-hourly from 93 to 144

Post-processed Products are not available at 06/18 runs or in hourly steps.

The purchase of the "Basic Set" +72, +96, +120, +144, +168 hrs is a mandatory prerequisite for the purchase of time steps in the range 12 to 66 hours.

The following sub-sets are available from the ENS Model:

III-i: Atmospheric fields (direct model output)

The products consist of 1 control and 50 perturbed forecasts plus the equivalent high-resolution (HRES) products. Customers can choose to receive the equivalent HRES at no extra cost. The high resolution product is suppressed beyond day 10. The fields are provided in GRIB code.

III-ii: Clusters (post-processed products)

III-iii: Probabilities (post-processed products)

The products provide the probabilities of the occurrence of instantaneous and averaged or accumulated weather events at each grid point. The products are encoded in GRIB form.

III-iv: Time series of weather parameters (post-processed products)

The products consist of values of the individual members of the real-time forecast at grid points (single locations). The products are provided in BUFR code.

III-v: Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT) (post-processed products)

The products provide the EFI and SOT of single level parameters calculated over 1, 3, 5 and 10-day ranges at each grid point. The products are encoded in GRIB form

III-vi: Ensemble means (post-processed products)

The fields are the means of the ensemble members at each forecast step. The fields are provided in GRIB code.

III-vii: Ensemble standard deviations (post-processed products)

The fields are the standard deviations of the ensemble members at each forecast step. The fields are provided in GRIB code.

III-viii: Tropical cyclones tracks (post-processed products)

Tropical cyclones tracks products are provided in BUFR code free of information charge.

The tropical cyclone trajectories are computed independently for each ensemble member; a given tropical cyclone may dissipate at different times in different members so the number of members predicting a given tropical cyclone may vary through the forecast.

 

 


The purchase of the "Basic Set" (+72, +96, +120, +144, +168 hrs) is a mandatory prerequisite for the purchase of time steps in the range 12 to 66 hours.

When requested, the invariant parameters will be provided free of information charge once with every forecast dissemination.

Base times for direct model output products: 00 UTC, 06 UTC, 12 UTC and 18 UTC  unless otherwise specified. 

Post-processed products are not available at 06/18 UTC runs or in hourly steps.

Dissemination schedule

dissemination data stream indicator = E)

 

Based Forecast Time 06UTC

Time Available

Based Forecast time 12UTC

Time Available

Based Forecast Time 18UTC

Time Available

Based Forecast time 00UTC

Time Available

Forecast Day 0 12:40 18:40 00:40 06:40
Forecast Day 1 12:44 18:44 00:44 06:44
Forecast Day 2 12:48 18:48 00:48 06:48
Forecast Day 3 12:52 18:52 00:52 06:52
Forecast Day 10   19:20   07:20
Forecast Day 15   19:40   07:40
Derived products Step 0 to 240   19:41     07:41
Derived products Step 246 to 360   20:01   08:01

Parameters

All tables are sortable by column. Use your browser to search for specific parameters.

  Terms conventions
(inv) Invariant field. If requested these parameters can be provided free of charge

III-i:  Atmospheric model

  Product resolution
T+0h to T+360h
  • 0.2° x 0.2° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
  • On model (Octahedral), O640 grid (global or sub-area)
  • Spectral components (TCO639) for upper-air fields (global area only)

III-i-a Atmospheric fields - single level

 

  Forecast time step Base Time
T+0h to T+90h   Hourly 00/06/12/18 UTC
T+93h to T+144h 3-hourly 00/06/12/18 UTC
T+150h to T+360h 6-hourly 00/12 UTC

 

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
sro 8 Surface runoff m  
ssro 9 Sub-surface runoff m  
cl 26 Lake cover (0 - 1) CF only
ci 31 Sea ice area fraction (0 - 1)  
asn 32 Snow albedo (0 - 1)  
rsn 33 Snow density kg m**-3  
sst 34 Sea surface temperature K  
istl1 35 Ice temperature layer 1 K  
istl2 36 Ice temperature layer 2 K  
istl3 37 Ice temperature layer 3 K  
istl4 38 Ice temperature layer 4 K  
swvl1 39 Volumetric soil water layer 1 m**3 m**-3  
swvl2 40 Volumetric soil water layer 2 m**3 m**-3  
swvl3 41 Volumetric soil water layer 3 m**3 m**-3  
swvl4 42 Volumetric soil water layer 4 m**3 m**-3  
slt 43 Soil type ~  
dsrp 47 Direct solar radiation J m**-2  
uvb 57 Downward UV radiation at the surface J m**-2  
cape 59 Convective available potential energy J kg**-1  
lai_lv 66 Leaf area index, low vegetation m**2 m**-2 CF only
lai_hv 67 Leaf area index, high vegetation m**2 m**-2 CF only
tclw 78 Total column cloud liquid water kg m**-2  
tciw 79 Total column cloud ice water kg m**-2  
mx2t6 121 Maximum temperature at 2 metres in the last 6 hours K  
mn2t6 122 Minimum temperature at 2 metres in the last 6 hours K  
10fg6 123 10 metre wind gust in the last 6 hours m s**-1  
z 129 Geopotential m**2 s**-2  
sp 134 Surface pressure Pa  
tcw 136 Total column water kg m**-2  
tcwv 137 Total column water vapour kg m**-2  
stl1 139 Soil temperature level 1 K  
sd 141 Snow depth m of water equivalent  
lsp 142 Large-scale precipitation m  
cp 143 Convective precipitation m  
sf 144 Snowfall m of water equivalent  
bld 145 Boundary layer dissipation J m**-2  
sshf 146 Surface sensible heat flux J m**-2  
slhf 147 Surface latent heat flux J m**-2  
chnk 148 Charnock ~  
msl 151 Mean sea level pressure Pa  
gh 156 Geopotential Height gpm  
blh 159 Boundary layer height m  
tcc 164 Total cloud cover (0 - 1)  
10u 165 10 metre U wind component m s**-1  
10v 166 10 metre V wind component m s**-1  
2t 167 2 metre temperature K  
2d 168 2 metre dewpoint temperature K  
ssrd 169 Surface solar radiation downwards J m**-2  
stl2 170 Soil temperature level 2 K  
lsm 172 Land-sea mask (0 - 1)  
sr 173 Surface roughness m  
al 174 Albedo (0 - 1)  
strd 175 Surface thermal radiation downwards J m**-2  
ssr 176 Surface net solar radiation J m**-2  
str 177 Surface net thermal radiation J m**-2  
tsr 178 Top net solar radiation J m**-2  
ttr 179 Top net thermal radiation J m**-2  
ewss 180 Eastward turbulent surface stress N m**-2 s  
nsss 181 Northward turbulent surface stress N m**-2 s  
e 182 Evaporation m of water equivalent  
stl3 183 Soil temperature level 3 K  
lcc 186 Low cloud cover (0 - 1)  
mcc 187 Medium cloud cover (0 - 1)  
hcc 188 High cloud cover (0 - 1)  
sund 189 Sunshine duration s  
lgws 195 Eastward gravity wave surface stress N m**-2 s  
mgws 196 Northward gravity wave surface stress N m**-2 s  
gwd 197 Gravity wave dissipation J m**-2  
src 198 Skin reservoir content m of water equivalent  
mx2t 201 Maximum temperature at 2 metres since previous post-processing K  
mn2t 202 Minimum temperature at 2 metres since previous post-processing K  
ro 205 Runoff m  
tco3 206 Total column ozone kg m**-2  
10si 207 10 metre wind speed m s**-1  
ssrc 210 Surface net solar radiation, clear sky J m**-2  
tp 228 Total precipitation m  
skt 235 Skin temperature K  
stl4 236 Soil temperature level 4 K  
tsn 238 Temperature of snow layer K  
fsr 244 Forecast surface roughness m  
flsr 245 Forecast logarithm of surface roughness for heat ~  
vis 3020 Visibility m  
so 151130 Sea water practical salinity psu  
ocu 151131 Eastward sea water velocity m s**-1  
ocv 151132 Northward sea water velocity m s**-1  
zos 151145 Sea surface height m  
mld 151148 Mixed layer depth m  
t20d 151163 Depth of 20C isotherm m  
tav300 151164 Average potential temperature in the upper 300m degrees C  
sav300 151175 Average salinity in the upper 300m psu  
viwve 162071 Vertical integral of eastward water vapour flux kg m**-1 s**-1  
viwvn 162072 Vertical integral of northward water vapour flux kg m**-1 s**-1  
sithick 174098 Sea-ice thickness m  
cin 228001 Convective inhibition J kg**-1  
dl 228007 Lake depth m CF only
lmlt 228008 Lake mix-layer temperature K  
lmld 228009 Lake mix-layer depth m  
lblt 228010 Lake bottom temperature K  
ltlt 228011 Lake total layer temperature K  
lshf 228012 Lake shape factor dimensionless  
lict 228013 Lake ice temperature K  
licd 228014 Lake ice depth m  
fdir 228021 Total sky direct solar radiation at surface J m**-2  
cdir 228022 Clear-sky direct solar radiation at surface J m**-2  
cbh 228023 Cloud base height m  
deg0l 228024 0 degrees C isothermal level (atm) m  
mx2t3 228026 Maximum temperature at 2 metres in the last 3 hours K  
mn2t3 228027 Minimum temperature at 2 metres in the last 3 hours K  
10fg3 228028 10 metre wind gust in the last 3 hours m s**-1  
i10fg 228029 Instantaneous 10 metre wind gust m s**-1  
mxcape6 228035 Maximum CAPE in the last 6 hours J kg**-1  
mxcapes6 228036 Maximum CAPES in the last 6 hours m**2 s**-2  
capes 228044 Convective available potential energy shear m**2 s**-2  
hcct 228046 Height of convective cloud top m  
hwbt0 228047 Height of zero-degree wet-bulb temperature m  
hwbt1 228048 Height of one-degree wet-bulb temperature m  
litoti 228050 Instantaneous total lightning flash density km**-2 day**-1  
litota3 228057 Averaged total lightning flash density in the last 3 hours km**-2 day**-1  
litota6 228058 Averaged total lightning flash density in the last 6 hours km**-2 day**-1  
tcrw 228089 Total column rain water kg m**-2  
tcsw 228090 Total column snow water kg m**-2  
fzra 228216 Accumulated freezing rain m  
ilspf 228217 Instantaneous large-scale surface precipitation fraction (0 - 1)  
crr 228218 Convective rain rate kg m**-2 s**-1  
lsrr 228219 Large scale rain rate kg m**-2 s**-1  
csfr 228220 Convective snowfall rate water equivalent kg m**-2 s**-1  
lssfr 228221 Large scale snowfall rate water equivalent kg m**-2 s**-1  
mxtpr3 228222 Maximum total precipitation rate in the last 3 hours kg m**-2 s**-1  
mntpr3 228223 Minimum total precipitation rate in the last 3 hours kg m**-2 s**-1  
mxtpr6 228224 Maximum total precipitation rate in the last 6 hours kg m**-2 s**-1  
mntpr6 228225 Minimum total precipitation rate in the last 6 hours kg m**-2 s**-1  
mntpr 228227 Minimum total precipitation rate since previous post-processing kg m**-2 s**-1  
200u 228239 200 metre U wind component m s**-1  
200v 228240 200 metre V wind component m s**-1  
200si 228241 200 metre wind speed m s**-1  
100u 228246 100 metre U wind component m s**-1  
100v 228247 100 metre V wind component m s**-1  
pev 228251 Potential evaporation m  
ptype 260015 Precipitation type code table (4.201)  
tprate 260048 Total precipitation rate kg m**-2 s**-1  
ceil 260109 Ceiling m  
kx 260121 K index K  
totalx 260123 Total totals index K  
CF only
CF only

III-i-b Atmospheric fields - Pressure Levels

All parameters are provided at 1000, 925, 850, 700, 500, 400, 300, 200, 100, 50, 10 hPa unless otherwise specified

  Forecast time step Base Time
T+0h to T+90h   Hourly 00/06/12/18 UTC
T+93h to T+144h 3-hourly 00/06/12/18 UTC
T+150h to T+360h 6-hourly 00/12 UTC
Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
strf 1 Stream function m**2 s**-1  
vp 2 Velocity potential m**2 s**-1  
z 129 Geopotential m**2 s**-2  
t 130 Temperature K  
u 131 U component of wind m s**-1  
v 132 V component of wind m s**-1  
q 133 Specific humidity kg kg**-1  
w 135 Vertical velocity Pa s**-1  
vo 138 Vorticity (relative) s**-1  
lnsp 152 Logarithm of surface pressure ~  
d 155 Divergence s**-1  
gh 156 Geopotential Height gpm  
r 157 Relative humidity %  
o3 203 Ozone mass mixing ratio kg kg**-1  

III-i-c Atmospheric fields - Model Levels

   Model level parameters are produced in GRIB2 format.

Model level parameters are available from T+0h to T+168 unless otherwise specified.

  Forecast time step Base time
T+0 to T+90 hourly 00/06/12/18 UTC
T+90 to T+144 3-hourly

00/06/12/18 UTC

T+150 to T+168 6-hourly 00/12 UTC
T+168 to T+360

6-hourly

Available only for specified parameters only (see table below)

00/12 UTC

 

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
crwc 75 Specific rain water content kg kg**-1  
cswc 76 Specific snow water content kg kg**-1  
z 129 Geopotential m**2 s**-2

Up to T+360

Level 1 only

t 130 Temperature K Up to T+360
u 131 U component of wind m s**-1 Up to T+360
v 132 V component of wind m s**-1 Up to T+360
q 133 Specific humidity kg kg**-1 Up to T+360
w 135 Vertical velocity Pa s**-1  
vo 138 Vorticity (relative) s**-1  
lnsp 152 Logarithm of surface pressure ~

Up to T+360

Level 1 only

d 155 Divergence s**-1  
gh 156 Geopotential Height gpm

Up to T+360

Level 1 only

o3 203 Ozone mass mixing ratio kg kg**-1  
clwc 246 Specific cloud liquid water content kg kg**-1  
ciwc 247 Specific cloud ice water content kg kg**-1  
cc 248 Fraction of cloud cover (0 - 1)  

III-i-d: Atmospheric fields - Potential vorticity levels

  Forecast time step Base Time
T+0h to T+90h   Hourly 00/06/12/18 UTC
T+93h to T+144h 3-hourly 00/06/12/18 UTC
T+150h to T+360h 6-hourly 00/12 UTC
Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
pt 3 Potential temperature K  
pres 54 Pressure Pa  
z 129 Geopotential m**2 s**-2  
u 131 U component of wind m s**-1  
v 132 V component of wind m s**-1  
q 133 Specific humidity kg kg**-1  
gh 156 Geopotential Height gpm  
o3 203 Ozone mass mixing ratio kg kg**-1  

III-ii Clusters

This product is coded using local definition 32

Product resolution

  • 1.5° x 1.5° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
Forecast time step Forecast ranges
T+72 to T+360 12-hourly
Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
gh 156 Geopotential Height gpm H: European Area (70° N, 20° W, 30° N, 40° E)

III-iii Probabilities

  Instantaneous weather events

Product resolution
  • 0.2° x 0.2° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
  • On model (Octahedral) O640 grid (global or sub-area)
  • Spectral components (TCO639) for upper-air fields (global area only)

Probabilities -Instantaneous weather events

Forecast steps Forecasts ranges
T+24h to T+360h

24-hourly

 III-iii-a Probabilities -Instantaneous weather events - Single level

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
10spg10 131068 10 metre Wind speed of at least 10 m/s %  
10spg15 131069 10 metre Wind speed of at least 15 m/s %  

III-iii-b: Probabilities - Averaged weather events - Single level

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
tpl01 131064 Total precipitation less than 0.1 mm %  
tprl1 131065 Total precipitation rate less than 1 mm/day %  
tprg3 131066 Total precipitation rate of at least 3 mm/day %  
tprg5 131067 Total precipitation rate of at least 5 mm/day %  

III-iii-d Probabilities - Averaged weather events

  Forecasts step & ranges
2-day period T+120-168
3-day period T+168-240
5-day period T+120-240 T+240-360

III-iii-d:Probabilities - Averaged weather events - Pressure levels

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
talm2 131020 Temperature anomaly less than -2 K %  
tag2 131021 Temperature anomaly of at least +2 K %  

III-iii-e Probabilities - Daily weather events - Single level

Forecast steps & ranges

T+0-24 T+12-36  T+24-48 T+36-60 T+48-72
T+60-84 T+72-96 T+84-108 T+96-120 T+108-132
T+120-144 T+132-156 T+144-168 T+156-180 T+168-192
T+180-204 T+192-216 T+204-228 T+216-240 T+228-252
T+240-264 T+252-276 T+264-288 T+276-300 T+288-312
T+300-324 T+312-336 T+324-348 T+336-360  

III-iii-f Probabilities - Tropical cyclone probabilities

Forecast steps &ranges
T+24-72 T+46-96  T+72-120 T+96-144 T+120-168
T+144-192 T+168-216 T+192-240 T+216-264 T+240-288
T+216-264 T+240-288      
Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
pts 131089 Probability of a tropical storm %  
ph 131090 Probability of a hurricane %  
ptd 131091 Probability of a tropical depression %  

III-iv Time series of weather parameters

The products consist of values of the individual members of the real-time forecast at grid points (single locations). The products are provided in BUFR code.

Forecast steps Product resolution

T+0h to T+360h at 6-hour intervals

  • 0.2° x 0.2° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)
  • On model (Octahedral) O640 grid (global or sub-area)
Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
mx2t6 121 Maximum temperature at 2 metres in the last 6 hours K  
mn2t6 122 Minimum temperature at 2 metres in the last 6 hours K  
10fg6 123 10 metre wind gust in the last 6 hours m s**-1  
sf 144 Snowfall m of water equivalent  
msl 151 Mean sea level pressure Pa  
tcc 164 Total cloud cover (0 - 1)  
10u 165 10 metre U wind component m s**-1  
10v 166 10 metre V wind component m s**-1  
2t 167 2 metre temperature K  
2d 168 2 metre dewpoint temperature K  
lsm 172 Land-sea mask (0 - 1)  
tp 228 Total precipitation m  

III-v Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT)

The products provide the EFI and SOT of single level parameters calculated over 1, 3, 5 and 10-day ranges at each grid point. The products are encoded in GRIB form..

Product resolution: 0.2° x 0.2° lat/long grid or any multiple thereof (global or sub-area)

 
00z
12z
1-day ranges
00Z: 00-24, 24-48, 48-72, 72-96, 96-120, 120-144, 144-168
12Z: 12-36, 36-60, 60-84, 84-108, 108-132, 132-156, 156-180
3-day ranges
00Z: 00-72, 24-96, 48-120, 72-144, 96-168, 120-192, 144-216
12Z: 12-84, 36-108, 60-132, 84-156, 108-180, 132-204, 156-228
5-day ranges
00Z: 00-120, 24-144, 48-168, 72-192, 96-216
12Z: 12-132, 36-156, 60-180, 84-204, 108-228
10-day ranges
00Z: 00-240
12Z: 00-240

III-v-a: Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) 1-day ranges 

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
capesi 132044 Convective available potential energy shear index (-1 to 1)  
wvfi 132045 Water vapour flux index dimensionless  
10fgi 132049 10 metre wind gust index (-1 to 1)  
capei 132059 Convective available potential energy index (-1 to 1)  
sfi 132144 Snowfall index (-1 to 1)  
10wsi 132165 10 metre speed index (-1 to 1)  
2ti 132167 2 metre temperature index (-1 to 1)  
mx2ti 132201 Maximum temperature at 2 metres index (-1 to 1)  
mn2ti 132202 Minimum temperature at 2 metres index (-1 to 1)  
tpi 132228 Total precipitation index (-1 to 1)  

III-v-b: Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) 3, 5 and 10-day

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
wvfi 132045 Water vapour flux index dimensionless  
10wsi 132165 10 metre speed index (-1 to 1)  
2ti 132167 2 metre temperature index (-1 to 1)  
tpi 132228 Total precipitation index (-1 to 1)  

III-v-c: Shift of Tails (SOT) 1-day ranges

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
capesi 132044 Convective available potential energy shear index (-1 to 1)  
wvfi 132045 Water vapour flux index dimensionless  
10fgi 132049 10 metre wind gust index (-1 to 1)  
capei 132059 Convective available potential energy index (-1 to 1)  
sfi 132144 Snowfall index (-1 to 1)  
10wsi 132165 10 metre speed index (-1 to 1)  
2ti 132167 2 metre temperature index (-1 to 1)  
mx2ti 132201 Maximum temperature at 2 metres index (-1 to 1)  
mn2ti 132202 Minimum temperature at 2 metres index (-1 to 1)  
tpi 132228 Total precipitation index (-1 to 1)  

III-v-d: Shift of Tails (SOT) 3, 5 and 10-day ranges

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
wvfi 132045 Water vapour flux index dimensionless  
10wsi 132165 10 metre speed index (-1 to 1)  
2ti 132167 2 metre temperature index (-1 to 1)  
tpi 132228 Total precipitation index (-1 to 1)  

III-vi-a: Ensemble means - Single level

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
msl 151 Mean sea level pressure Pa  
2t 167 2 metre temperature K  
10si 207 10 metre wind speed m s**-1  
100si 228249 100 metre wind speed m s**-1  

III-vi-b: Ensemble means - Pressure levels

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
ws 10 Wind speed m s**-1  
t 130 Temperature K  
gh 156 Geopotential Height gpm  

III-vii-a: Ensemble standard deviations - Single level

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
msl 151 Mean sea level pressure Pa  
2t 167 2 metre temperature K  
10si 207 10 metre wind speed m s**-1  
100si 228249 100 metre wind speed m s**-1  

III-vii-b: Ensemble standard deviations - Pressure levels

Short Name ID Long Name Units Additional information
ws 10 Wind speed m s**-1  
t 130 Temperature K  
gh 156 Geopotential Height gpm  

III-viii: Tropical Cyclone tracks

  

Tropical cyclones tracks are provided in BUFR code, free of information charge. They are composed of 52 trajectories corresponding to:

  • the 50 perturbed forecasts from ENS (Ensemble Member numbers 1 to 50 in BUFR)
  • the control forecast from ENS (Ensemble Member number 51 in BUFR)
  • the HRES forecast (Ensemble Member number 52 in BUFR)

The tropical cyclone trajectories are computed independently for each ensemble member; a given tropical cyclone may dissipate at different times in different members so the number of members predicting a given tropical cyclone may vary through the forecast.

Observed (existing cyclones) and genesis (created by the forecast).

Short name Long name Description Unit Additional information
TC Tropical Cyclone     BUFR

Last updated 22-10-2020